NBA Outlook: The LA Lakers are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Warriors and Behind the Clippers in the West

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Oddsmakers give them the 2nd best chance of winning the championship despite being 5th in the West in projected regular season wins. If they are fully healthy they are our Computer Model's #1 team. But with likely load management and injuries for LeBron and Anthony Davis we do not project them to have home court advantage in the West Finals or NBA Finals which hurts their chances of winning it all. Their odds to win it all are 4/1, 20% (#2). Their 15.5% chance is #2 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the West 25.4% of the time and are not a good value at 9/4, 30.8%. The Lakers are averaging 50.6 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 50 games. At -800 the Lakers are a good value to make the playoffs with a 98% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 3/1, 25%. They win the division in 30.2% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the West.

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They were expected to win 47% of their games last season so their 37-45 met expectations. They were not good against the spread going 35-46-1 (-1560 loss). More of their games came in under (49) than went over (32). Based on computer simulations they only have a 47% chance to beat the Clippers in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

10/22 LAC47%2-22-22-2
10/25 UTA56%2-23-11-3
10/27 CHA80%2-02-02-0
10/29 MEM72%1-21-20-3
11/1 DAL57%3-02-10-3


SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 55.5% (#16 in League). They average 111.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.4. On the road they average 112.5 (112.4 expected), and at home 111 ppg (114.4 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55.1 true FG% (#9 in League). They allow 113.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 114.3. They are allowing 115.8 (115 expected) on the road, and at home 111.2 ppg (113.6 expected).

REBOUNDING (BELOW AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounded by opponents by 0.1 per game (#15 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.9 per game (#28 in league).


The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by LeBron James who is projected to be the #2 Forward. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

LeBron James742Giannis AntetokounmpoAnthony Davis
Anthony Davis943LeBron JamesLuka Doncic
Kyle Kuzma9426Kevin LoveMarvin Bagley III
Rajon Rondo6646Evan FournierJ.J. Redick
Danny Green3273Tyus JonesGeorge Hill
JaVale McGee6830Zach CollinsIvica Zubac
Avery Bradley2680Luke KennardJalen Brunson
Dwight Howard2832Ivica ZubacJakob Poeltl
Quinn Cook097Troy BrownDe'Anthony Melton
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope45103Markelle FultzJordan McRae