NBA Outlook: Bet on the Milwaukee Bucks to Win Less Than 58 Games...Projected to Finish Ahead of 76ers

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 6/1, 14.3% (#3). Their simulation based win percentage (14.1%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. In simulations, they win the East 27.7% of the time and are not a good value at 5/4, 44.4%. The Bucks are averaging 53.7 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 58 wins. At -10000 the Bucks are a good value to make the playoffs with a 100% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 1/20, 95.2%. They win the division in 69.4% of simulations. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 60-22 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 56.8-25.2. They were very good against the spread going 47-32-3 for (+1180 profit). They went over 41 times and came in under 40 times. Based on computer simulations they only have a 41% chance to beat the Rockets in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
10/24 HOU41%2-02-00-2
10/26 MIA68%3-13-10-4
10/28 CLE83%3-13-11-3
10/30 BOS49%6-25-34-4
11/1 ORL64%2-11-1-11-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 57.9% (#3 in League). The team shooting has declined to 53.7% in their last 7 games. They average 118.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 116.5. On the road they average 116.4 (115.7 expected), and at home 119.9 ppg (117.3 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 53 true FG% (#1 in League). They allow 109.3 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.2. They are allowing 110.7 (111.7 expected) on the road, and at home 107.8 ppg (108.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +4.7 per game (#2 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.2 per game (#15 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Giannis Antetokounmpo who is projected to be the #1 Forward. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Giannis Antetokounmpo961--LeBron James
Khris Middleton9117Julius RandleAaron Gordon
Eric Bledsoe9626Victor OladipoDejounte Murray
Brook Lopez8722Willie Cauley-SteinKelly Olynyk
George Hill1574Danny GreenLandry Shamet
Wesley Matthews4585Tyler JohnsonEmmanuel Mudiay
Robin Lopez4336Mason PlumleePau Gasol
Ersan Ilyasova298Garrett TempleJames Ennis
Kyle Korver2111Seth CurryAlex Caruso
Pat Connaughton6119Nickeil Alexander-WalkerJosh Hart