SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 17-8 the Nuggets are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 14.9 wins. They have 6 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 5 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have been better than expected on the road. Their 8-5 road record is +11% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-3, 70%) is better than their expected 49% win percentage. The Nuggets are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.2% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#11 in the league). They have moved up from #18 in the league back on 11/16.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 55.3% (#18 in League). They average 110.6 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.3. On the road they average 107.5 (109.7 expected), and at home 114.1 ppg (113.1 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.5 true FG% (#9 in League). They allow 103.8 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.2. They are allowing 106.2 (109.5 expected) on the road, and at home 101.2 ppg (106.9 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +5.7 per game (#2 in league).
TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.4 per game (#12 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -0.3.
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NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (37% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 11.7%. They are in a battle the Warriors at #1 in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Warriors. There is only a 0.25 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Nuggets are the most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Nuggets are playing 6 games, traveling 2044 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #11 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)DEC 8LIKELY WIN81% @ATL1212 milesDEC 10LIKELY WIN75% MEM--DEC 14CLOSE GAME46% OKC--DEC 16CLOSE GAME53% TOR--DEC 18LIKELY WIN79% DAL--DEC 22CLOSE GAME45% @LAC832 milesDEC 26CLOSE GAME49% @SA805 milesDEC 28LIKELY WIN70% SA--DEC 29**LIKELY WIN68% @PHO586 milesJAN 1LIKELY WIN80% NY--
According to Sportsline the Denver Nuggets are -7.5 favorites but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Nuggets are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 7/2 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 1.9% on 11/30. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 1.1%. They have a 33.8% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #1 in the conference and have a 94% chance of making the playoffs. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (63%). They have a 44% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 16.9% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2% (50/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1). In simulations they make the Finals 4.1% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #14 Easiest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 53% #5 Toughest
Nuggets' Championship Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected Wins||Playoff%||West Champ||NBA Champ|
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|Nikola Jokic||37.1||100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #2)|
|Paul Millsap||26.7||99% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #18)|
|Will Barton||25.9||90% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #43)|
|Jamal Murray||24.6||99% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #23)|
|Mason Plumlee||10.9||30% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #28)|
|Gary Harris||23.7||96% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #32)|