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LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Bucks are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 7/3 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 10.2% on 1/12. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 12.9%. Before the start of their 2 game winning streak they were at 6.4%. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 93% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 69.4%. Based on the odds, they have a 33.3% chance of winning the East (2/1) and an 11.1% chance of winning it all (8/1). In simulations they make the Finals 52.5% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 46% #5 Easiest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #7 Easiest
Bucks' Championship Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected Wins||Playoff%||East Champ||NBA Champ|
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-
At 43-14 the Bucks are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 39 wins. They have won 69% of their road games and were expected to win 61%. At home they have a 82% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 77%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (9-2, 82%) is better than their expected 70% win percentage. Bucks fans should appreciate that the team has greatly exceeded their pre-season expectations where they were #15 in the league in power ranking. The Bucks perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 70.1% of the time (#2 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 7/20 they won just 48.7%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #15 winning 51.4%.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 58.4% (#2 in League). They average 116.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 116.1. On the road they average 114.3 (115 expected), and at home 119.6 ppg (117.1 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 53.1 true FG% (#1 in League). They allow 107.1 pts per game vs an expected value of 109.8. They are allowing 107.8 (111.3 expected) on the road, and at home 106.4 ppg (108.2 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +4.4 per game (#2 in league).
TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.1 per game (#13 in league).
NEXT 3 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT
The forecast for their next 3 games is very good. They have 8 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and no games where they are a clear underdog. They are expected to win all 3 games (46% chance). Their chances of winning their next 3 are 46.2%. At #1 in the conference, they are ahead of the Raptors by one game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Raptors. Their projected wins (2.32) over the next 3 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Bucks are the 16th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few days, the Bucks are playing 8 games, traveling 16896 miles crossing 12 time zones. They rank #3 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)FEB 21LIKELY WIN71% BOS--FEB 23LIKELY WIN77% MIN--FEB 25LIKELY WIN83% @CHI81 milesFEB 27LIKELY WIN68% @SAC2552 milesMAR 1LIKELY WIN70% @LAL1744 milesMAR 2**LIKELY WIN64% @UTA582 milesMAR 4LIKELY WIN85% @PHO1981 milesMAR 7LIKELY WIN70% IND--MAR 9LIKELY WIN82% CHA--MAR 10**CLOSE GAME55% @SA1145 miles
The Milwaukee Bucks' next game is on February 21. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|Giannis Antetokounmpo||48.4||100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #1)|
|Khris Middleton||28.8||100% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #13)|
|Eric Bledsoe||30.5||100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #15)|
|Brook Lopez||19.7||83% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #19)|
|Malcolm Brogdon||25.5||92% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #31)|
|Nikola Mirotic||21||97% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #29)|