Clippers Faces Fatigue Over Next 8 Traveling 13058 Miles

NEXT 7 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 7 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 3 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, and 6 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 7 games is a record of 3-4 (31% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 7.8%. At #7 in the conference, they are behind the Spurs by one game. With a +0.3 advantage in projected wins over their next 7 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are in a battle with Jazz in the conference. With a -0.57 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 7 games they may find the gap between them closing. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Clippers are just the 27th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Clippers are playing 8 games, traveling 13058 miles crossing 18 time zones. They rank #5 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 18
LIKELY LOSS
24% GS
--
JAN 20
LIKELY LOSS
19% @SA
1207 miles
JAN 22
LIKELY LOSS
25% @DAL
1240 miles
JAN 23**
LIKELY LOSS
29% @MIA
1112 miles
JAN 25
CLOSE GAME
56% @CHI
1743 miles
JAN 27
CLOSE GAME
57% SAC
--
JAN 28**
LIKELY WIN
65% ATL
--
JAN 31
CLOSE GAME
50% LAL
--
FEB 2
LIKELY LOSS
34% @DET
832 miles
FEB 3**
LIKELY LOSS
18% @TOR
1345 miles

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 24-20 the Clippers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 23.5 wins. They have 10 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 8 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 48% of their road games and were expected to win 49%. At home they have a 61% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 58%. Losers of 4 in a row they have a 61.6% chance of seeing that extend to 6 straight. In simulations where the Clippers played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 42% of the time (#22 in the league). They have moved up from #30 in the league back on 7/13.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 57.7% (#5 in League). They average 115.2 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.6. On the road they average 114.5 (113.3 expected), and at home 115.9 ppg (113.9 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55.1 true FG% (#10 in League). They allow 114.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 112.5. They are allowing 115.8 (113.9 expected) on the road, and at home 113.6 ppg (111.1 expected).

REBOUNDING (BELOW AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounded by opponents by 0.5 per game (#18 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2 per game (#27 in league).

According to Sportsline the LA Clippers are +6 underdogs but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Clippers are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. On 7/13 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 91.6% on 12/4. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 11.2%. Before the start of their 4 game losing streak they were at 22.5%. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #14 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #8 Toughest

Clippers' Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%West ChampNBA Champ
Jan 1839.211.2%0%0%
Dec 547.791.4%1.9%0.6%
Difference-8.5-80.2%-1.9%-0.6%

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Montrezl Harrell23.996% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #18)
Tobias Harris27.7100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #11)
Louis Williams27.298% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #26)
Danilo Gallinari25.599% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #18)
Marcin Gortat12.820% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #33)
Boban Marjanovic5.95% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #48)