Denver Has 5 Easy Wins and None as Heavy Dogs

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Nuggets next 4 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 5 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 3-1 (38% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 13.3%. At #3 in the conference, they are fighting with the Thunder for positioning. With a -1.5 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Clippers by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Clippers. Their projected wins (2.49) over the next 4 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Nuggets are the 3rd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Nuggets are playing 5 games, traveling 832 miles crossing 1 time zone. They rank #13 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

DEC 10
LIKELY WIN
71% MEM
--
DEC 14
CLOSE GAME
46% OKC
--
DEC 16
CLOSE GAME
53% TOR
--
DEC 18
LIKELY WIN
79% DAL
--
DEC 22
CLOSE GAME
45% @LAC
832 miles
DEC 26
CLOSE GAME
49% @SA
805 miles
DEC 28
LIKELY WIN
70% SA
--
DEC 29**
LIKELY WIN
68% @PHO
586 miles
JAN 1
LIKELY WIN
80% NY
--
JAN 3
CLOSE GAME
54% @SAC
887 miles

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 17-9 the Nuggets are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 15.6 wins. They have 7 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 5 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 57% of their road games and were expected to win 52%. At home they have a 75% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 68%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-4, 64%) is better than their expected 51% win percentage. The Nuggets are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.2% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#11 in the league). They have moved up from #18 in the league back on 11/16.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 55% (#19 in League). They average 110.2 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.5. On the road they average 106.8 (110.1 expected), and at home 114.1 ppg (113.1 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.5 true FG% (#10 in League). They allow 103.8 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.2. They are allowing 106.1 (109.4 expected) on the road, and at home 101.2 ppg (106.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +5.3 per game (#4 in league).

TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.5 per game (#11 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -0.1.

The Denver Nuggets' next game is on December 10. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Nuggets are contenders to win the conference, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had under a 1% chance of reaching the NBA Finals. On 7/9 they had a 0.2% chance before increasing to 5.1% on 12/2. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 3.5%. Before the start of their 2 game losing streak they were at 4.5%. They have a 27.3% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 90% chance of making the playoffs. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (54%). Their chances of getting out of the first round is 41% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 14.9%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2% (50/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1). In simulations they win the championship 1% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #12 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 52% #7 Toughest

Nuggets' Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%West ChampNBA Champ
Dec 947.889.7%3.5%1%
Dec 248.192.1%5.1%1.7%
Difference-0.3-2.4%-1.6%-0.7%

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Nikola Jokic38100% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #2)
Will Barton26.190% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #42)
Mason Plumlee12.630% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #28)
Jamal Murray24.599% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #24)
Gary Harris23.795% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #35)
Isaiah Thomas17.554% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #60)