Fatigue an Issue Over Cavaliers' Next 7 Games (Over 5741 Travel Miles)

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The Cavaliers next 6 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They are the clear underdog in 9 out of the 6 games, and just one game where they are expected to be competitive. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 1-5 (37% chance). Their chances of winning 3 or more are 14.7%. At #15 in the conference, they are behind the Bulls by one game. With a -0.82 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Cavaliers are the most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Cavaliers are playing 7 games, traveling 5741 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #6 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 18
LIKELY LOSS
13% @UTA
1567 miles
JAN 19**
LIKELY LOSS
12% @DEN
371 miles
JAN 21
LIKELY LOSS
38% CHI
--
JAN 23
LIKELY LOSS
14% @BOS
550 miles
JAN 25
LIKELY LOSS
25% MIA
--
JAN 27
CLOSE GAME
48% @CHI
310 miles
JAN 29
LIKELY LOSS
34% WAS
--
FEB 2
LIKELY LOSS
30% DAL
--
FEB 5
LIKELY LOSS
22% BOS
--
FEB 8
LIKELY LOSS
12% @WAS
305 miles

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 9-36 Cavaliers 'should have' 11 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 8 good wins vs 4 bad losses. They have come up especially short at home. Their 5-17 home record is -10% lower than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 1-10, 9%. Cavaliers fans have to be disappointed that they have fallen well short of their pre-season expectations where they were #9 in the league in power ranking. In simulations where the Cavaliers played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 28.7% of the time (#30 in the league). Their peak rank was #6 in the league back on 6/26.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.6% (#26 in League). They average 102.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 103.7. On the road they average 102.1 (102 expected), and at home 103.7 ppg (105.5 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 58.8 true FG% (#30 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 63.5% in their last 7 games. They allow 113.6 pts per game vs an expected value of 111.6. They are allowing 113.8 (112.3 expected) on the road, and at home 113.5 ppg (110.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 1.1 per game (#20 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1 per game (#22 in league).

Sportsline has a free pick on the Cleveland Cavaliers' next game. They are +15 underdogs and are not expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

Before the season, the Cavaliers were projected to win 49.8 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 6/20 their projected win total was up to 50.9 before dropping to 15.8 on 11/22. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down significantly to 19.1 wins.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #10 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 53% #6 Toughest

Cavaliers' Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%East ChampNBA Champ
Jan 1819.10%0%0%
Nov 2215.80%0%0%
Difference+3.3------

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Tristan Thompson19.891% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #20)
Kevin Love27.998% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #29)
Collin Sexton21.680% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #49)
Ante Zizic8.93% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #53)
Larry Nance19.274% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #50)
Jordan Clarkson20.177% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #51)