Fatigue an Issue Over Pistons' Next 7 Games (Over 7166 Travel Miles)

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Pistons next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 4 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, 2 more 'toss up' games, and 4 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (35% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 11.7%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.1%. At #9 in the conference, they are behind the Hornets by 1.5 games. With a +0.22 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Magic by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Magic. Their projected wins (2.18) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Pistons are the 9th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Pistons are playing 7 games, traveling 7166 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #7 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 18
CLOSE GAME
49% MIA
--
JAN 19**
CLOSE GAME
57% SAC
--
JAN 21
LIKELY LOSS
29% @WAS
1493 miles
JAN 23
CLOSE GAME
42% @NO
1082 miles
JAN 25
CLOSE GAME
42% @DAL
1008 miles
JAN 29
CLOSE GAME
42% MIL
--
JAN 31
CLOSE GAME
56% DAL
--
FEB 2
LIKELY WIN
66% LAC
--
FEB 4
CLOSE GAME
59% DEN
--
FEB 5**
CLOSE GAME
49% @NY
1630 miles

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 19-24 the Pistons are behind their money line projected win total of 19.6 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 8 good wins vs 6 bad losses. They have won 33% of their road games and were expected to win 34%. At home they have a 55% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 56%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 4-8, 33%. In simulations, the Pistons are a below average team and won 49.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#19 in the league). Their peak rank was #11 in the league back on 11/21.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.3% (#28 in League). They average 106.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.6. On the road they average 105.4 (105.4 expected), and at home 108.4 ppg (109.7 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.6 true FG% (#21 in League). They allow 109.6 pts per game vs an expected value of 109.1. They are allowing 110.8 (110.5 expected) on the road, and at home 108.5 ppg (107.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They are outrebounding opponents by 1.6 per game (#11 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 2.7.

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.1 per game (#15 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 1.1.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Detroit Pistons' next game. They are -2 favorites and are not expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Pistons are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 79.3% chance of making the playoffs. On 7/3 they had a 94.5% chance before dropping to 23.6% on 11/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 61.1%. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 13% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 3.1%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 0.5% (200/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #10 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #11 Toughest

Pistons' Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%East ChampNBA Champ
Jan 183961.1%0.8%0.1%
Dec 344.692.6%1.8%0.3%
Difference-5.6-31.5%-1%-0.2%

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Blake Griffin38.4100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #6)
Andre Drummond33.2100% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #5)
Reggie Jackson2488% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #42)
Zaza Pachulia9.71% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #57)
Reggie Bullock17.134% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #73)
Ish Smith15.914% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #87)