Fatigue an Issue Over Warriors' Next 6 Games (Over 15112 Travel Miles)

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Warriors next 5 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (37% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 6.2%. At #1 in the conference, they are ahead of the Nuggets by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Nuggets. Their projected wins (2.97) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Warriors are the 5th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Warriors are playing 6 games, traveling 15112 miles crossing 18 time zones. They rank #1 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 18
LIKELY WIN
76% @LAC
338 miles
JAN 21
LIKELY WIN
64% @LAL
338 miles
JAN 24
CLOSE GAME
51% @WAS
2428 miles
JAN 26
CLOSE GAME
53% @BOS
2685 miles
JAN 28
CLOSE GAME
52% @IND
1936 miles
JAN 31
LIKELY WIN
71% PHI
--
FEB 2
LIKELY WIN
73% LAL
--
FEB 6
LIKELY WIN
80% SA
--
FEB 8
LIKELY WIN
84% @PHO
642 miles
FEB 10
LIKELY WIN
72% MIA
--

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 31-14 the Warriors are behind their money line projected win total of 32.4 wins. They have 11 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 3 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 62% of their road games and were expected to win 64%. At home they have a 75% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 79%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 8-2, 80%. The Warriors perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 78.1% of the time (#1 in the league). Their peak sim% was 79.8% back on 7/9.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 59.7% (#1 in League). The team has improved to 64% in their last 7 games. They average 118.6 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 117.1. On the road they average 118.2 (115.3 expected), and at home 119 ppg (118.7 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55.3 true FG% (#12 in League). They allow 112.3 pts per game vs an expected value of 110. They are allowing 112 (110.8 expected) on the road, and at home 112.6 ppg (109.3 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +3.3 per game (#5 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.3 per game (#23 in league).

According to Sportsline the Golden State Warriors are -6 favorites but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Warriors are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 52.1% chance of winning it all. On 7/1 they had a 28.8% chance before increasing to 70.9% on 11/1. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 66.7%. Before the start of their 6 game winning streak they were at 36.2%. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 94% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 87.7%. Based on the odds, they have a 75% chance of winning the West (1/3) and a 66.7% chance of winning it all (1/2). In simulations they make the Finals 81.2% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 53% #2 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 47% #5 Easiest

Warriors' Championship Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%West ChampNBA Champ
Jan 1858100%81.2%66.7%
Nov 168.5100%82%70.9%
Difference-10.5---0.8%-4.2%

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Stephen Curry38.1100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #11)
Kevin Durant39.7100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #2)
DeMarcus Cousins33.599% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #25)
Draymond Green27.699% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #20)
Klay Thompson26.1100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #14)
Andre Iguodala11.46% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #100)