Heat Playoff Chances At 45%... Up From Low Point, Down From Peak

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Heat are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 76.8% chance of making the playoffs. On 11/2 they had a 96.5% chance before dropping to 8.4% on 11/27. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 45%. They have a 20.8% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #9 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 47% #11 Easiest

Heat's Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%East ChampNBA Champ
Dec 1739.545%0.8%0.2%
Nov 2733.58.4%0%0%
Difference+6+36.6%+0.8%+0.2%

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 13-16 the Heat are behind their money line projected win total of 14.1 wins. They have 10 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 8 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have been better than expected on the road. Their 8-7 road record is +12% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-5, 55%) is better than their expected 41% win percentage. The Heat should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 50.4% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#15 in the league). They have moved up from #25 in the league back on 11/26.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.3% (#29 in League). They average 106.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 108.4. On the road they average 108.1 (106.3 expected), and at home 105.4 ppg (110.5 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.6 true FG% (#10 in League). They allow 107.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.6. They are allowing 107.6 (109 expected) on the road, and at home 107.9 ppg (108.2 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +2.1 per game (#10 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.2 per game (#21 in league).

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The Heat next 4 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 2-2 (37% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 2.6%. At #9 in the conference, they are behind the Hornets by one game. With a -0.34 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Nets by one game. With a -1.27 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find the gap between them closing. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Heat are the 13th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Heat are playing 6 games, traveling 408 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #28 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

DEC 20
LIKELY LOSS
32% HOU
--
DEC 22
CLOSE GAME
46% MIL
--
DEC 23**
CLOSE GAME
57% @ORL
204 miles
DEC 26
LIKELY LOSS
33% TOR
--
DEC 28
LIKELY WIN
75% CLE
--
DEC 30
CLOSE GAME
51% MIN
--
JAN 2
LIKELY WIN
75% @CLE
1090 miles
JAN 4
LIKELY WIN
70% WAS
--
JAN 6
LIKELY WIN
76% @ATL
607 miles
JAN 8
CLOSE GAME
47% DEN
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The Miami Heat's next game is on December 20. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Hassan Whiteside2599% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #14)
Goran Dragic26.496% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #32)
Kelly Olynyk14.342% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #26)
Josh Richardson25.799% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #25)
Justise Winslow20.267% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #56)
Bam Adebayo19.760% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #61)