Houston Rockets Lose a Win and Gain a Bad Contract After Westbrook for Paul Trade

PLAYOFF FORECAST

The Rockets would have been wise to get over their chemistry issues from last season and just try to win in '19-20 with the same core. But clearly the Harden-Paul relationship was broken. The Rockets had the best record when Paul was healthy for the past 2 seasons. To think that Russell Westbrook would be a better POINT GUARD is crazy. They went from 51 wins to 50 wins after the trade and a lower chance of winning the West. They have a 46.3% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 20.5% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the West is 8.6%. They have 4.1% chance of winning the championship.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The regular season went as expected. They won 53 games vs an expected win total of 52.1. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 23.2. Their 75.6% home win percentage was better than expected (70.6%).

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 58% (#2 in League). They average 113.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.3. On the road they average 111 (112.4 expected), and at home 116.8 ppg (114.2 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56 true FG% (#18 in League). They allow 109.1 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.9. They are allowing 108.6 (110.4 expected) on the road, and at home 109.7 ppg (107.4 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 3 per game (#27 in league). However, the team has recently outrebounded opponents by 1.7.

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.6 per game (#6 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -0.9.

TEAM STATS AND AGAINST THE SPREAD GAMELOG

Below is a recap of all 82 regular games. Anyone who backed the Rockets in all of their games would have earned a +401 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have lost -190 units risking 110 to win 100 (41-39 ATS). The Rockets have lost ATS on the road, but at home they have turned a profit.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U RecordPts/PosPA/PosPos+/-
All Games113.9 - 109.153-29, +40141-39, -19037-42 53.2% Under1.181.13-0.06
On Road111.0 - 108.622-19, +40117-23, -83017-24 58.5% Under1.161.140.04
At Home116.8 - 109.731-10, +19424-16, +64020-18 52.6% Over1.21.12-0.16
4/9 @OKC111-112Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 229.51.171.180
4/7 PHO149-113Win +1Covered -18.5Over 2231.461.1-1
4/5 NY120-96Win +2Covered -18Push 2161.160.96+3
4/3 @LAC135-103Win +68Covered -2.5Over 2291.361.07+3
4/2 @SAC130-105Win +41Covered -5.5Over 225.51.351.11+2
3/30 SAC119-108Win +19Covered -10Under 2291.271.16+1
3/28 DEN112-85Win +40Covered -6Under 216.51.230.89-5
3/26 @MIL94-108Loss -100ATS Loss +3Under 2240.911.07+2
3/24 @NO113-90Win +18Covered -10Under 229.51.270.97-3
3/22 SA111-105Win +37ATS Push -6Under 2211.141.1+2
3/20 @MEM125-126Loss -100ATS Loss -5.5Over 2151.251.21-4
3/19 @ATL121-105Win +30Covered -7.5Under 232.51.271.08-2
3/17 MIN117-102Win +25Covered -8.5Under 2261.231.05-2
3/15 PHO108-102Win +10ATS Loss -12.5Under 2261.091-2
3/13 GS104-106Loss -100ATS Loss -4Under 2281.161.21+2
3/11 CHA118-106Win +19Covered -9.5Over 2231.171.11+5
3/10 @DAL94-93Win +26ATS Loss -8.5Under 222.51.011.04+4
3/8 PHI107-91Win +29Covered -7.5Under 230.51.10.940
3/5 @TOR107-95Win +144Covered +3.5Under 228.51.21.060
3/3 @BOS115-104Win +110Covered +2Under 225.51.261.140
2/28 MIA121-118Win +20ATS Loss -9.5Over 2191.311.26-1
2/27 @CHA118-113Win +45ATS Push -5Over 227.51.181.120
2/25 ATL119-111Win +10ATS Loss -12.5Under 234.51.21.19+6
2/23 @GS118-112Win +580Covered +12Under 231.51.181.09-2
2/21 @LAL106-111Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 2331.061.1-1
2/13 @MIN111-121Loss -100ATS Loss -4Over 231.51.161.33+5
2/11 DAL120-104Win +14Covered -11Push 2241.291.08-3
2/9 OKC112-117Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Under 237.51.121.12-5
2/6 @SAC127-101Win +57Covered -4Under 2361.251.03+4
2/4 @PHO118-110Win +24ATS Loss -8.5Over 227.51.251.15-2
2/2 @UTA125-98Win +249Covered +7Over 2221.190.95+1
2/1 @DEN122-136Loss -100ATS Loss +3.5Over 223.51.361.57+3
1/29 NO116-121Loss -100ATS Loss -13.5Over 2341.111.2+3
1/27 ORL103-98Win +22ATS Loss -8.5Under 221.51.081.030
1/25 TOR121-119Win +140Covered +3.5Over 2281.191.170
1/23 @NY114-110Win +27ATS Loss -8Under 226.51.141.12+1
1/21 @PHI93-121Loss -100ATS Loss +4.5Under 2340.941.19-2
1/19 LAL138-134Win +33ATS Loss -7Over 229.51.241.26+4
1/16 BKN142-145Loss -100ATS Loss -5.5Over 2261.251.32+3
1/14 MEM112-94Win +61Covered -3.5Under 208.51.171.02+4
1/13 @ORL109-116Loss -100ATS Loss -6Over 214.51.151.25+2
1/11 CLE141-113Win +6Covered -14Over 217.51.331.1+3
1/9 MIL109-116Loss -100ATS Loss +2Under 2291.11.16-1
1/7 DEN125-113Win +83Covered -1.5Over 2161.281.150
1/5 @POR101-110Loss -100ATS Loss -1Under 217.51.151.21-3
1/3 @GS135-134Win +300Covered +8.5Over 225.51.31.23-5
12/31 MEM113-101Win +54Covered -4.5Over 200.51.231.06-3
12/29 @NO108-104Win +62Covered -3.5Under 2291.161.03-8
12/27 BOS127-113Win +116Covered +2.5Over 214.51.361.19-1
12/25 OKC113-109Win +95Covered +1Push 2221.111.09+2
12/22 SA108-101Win +42Covered -5.5Under 216.51.191.09-2
12/20 @MIA99-101Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 2111.081.09-2
12/19 WAS136-118Win +16Covered -11Over 2251.41.220
12/17 UTA102-97Win +50Covered -4.5Under 2120.990.940
12/15 @MEM105-97Win +71Covered -2.5Under 202.51.221.120
12/13 LAL126-111Win +42Covered -6Over 2261.351.190
12/11 POR111-103Win +38Covered -6.5Under 2201.261.1-5
12/8 @DAL104-107Loss -100ATS Loss -3.5Under 2181.161.22+3
12/6 @UTA91-118Loss -100ATS Loss +1.5Under 215.50.911.22+3
12/3 @MIN91-103Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Under 2230.991.130
12/1 CHI121-105Win +7Covered -13Over 2191.21.05+1
11/30 @SA136-105Win +58Covered -4Over 2161.431.110
11/28 DAL108-128Loss -100ATS Loss -5Over 217.51.151.34-1
11/26 @WAS131-135Loss -100ATS Loss +1.5Over 2231.241.31+3
11/24 @CLE108-117Loss -100ATS Loss -6.5Over 208.51.181.270
11/23 @DET111-116Loss -100ATS Loss -4Over 2151.111.160
11/21 DET126-124Win +22ATS Loss -9Over 2151.341.26-4
11/17 SAC132-112Win +10Covered -12Over 2201.281.08-1
11/15 GS107-86Win +57Covered -4Under 217.51.2510
11/13 @DEN109-99Win +152Covered +4.5Under 2171.261.12-2
11/11 IND115-103Win +74Covered -2Over 2091.261.1-2
11/10 @SA89-96Loss -100ATS Loss -3.5Under 211.50.971.08+3
11/8 @OKC80-98Loss -100ATS Loss -5Under 213.50.911.09-2
11/5 @IND98-94Win +91Covered +1Under 2161.091.02-2
11/3 @CHI96-88Win +25ATS Loss -8.5Under 22310.93+1
11/2 @BKN119-111Win +58Covered -4Over 220.51.31.220
10/30 POR85-104Loss -100ATS Loss -4Under 222.50.911.08-3
10/26 LAC113-133Loss -100ATS Loss -4Over 217.51.111.310
10/24 UTA89-100Loss -100ATS Loss -1Under 2170.941.05-1
10/21 @LAC112-115Loss -100ATS Loss +1Over 2221.151.180
10/20 @LAL124-115Win +65Covered -3.5Over 2381.151.1+3
10/17 NO112-131Loss -100ATS Loss -8Over 2321.111.290