LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Kings are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. On 6/15 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 30.7% on 12/14. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 33.1%. Before the start of their 3 game winning streak they were at 12.9%. They have virtually no chance at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 6% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 1.9%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 0.2% (500/1 odds) and a 0.1% chance of winning it all (1000/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher
- Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #7 Toughest
- Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #13 Toughest
Kings' Season Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected Wins||Playoff%||West Champ||NBA Champ|
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A
At 28-25 the Kings are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 21 wins. In the process of beating expectations they have had 19 impressive wins where they won as betting underdogs or won big as slight favorites vs 3 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 17-10 home record is +18% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-4, 60%) is better than their expected 44% win percentage. In the pre-season, the Kings were expected to be a below average team (#27) in power rank, but they have greatly exceeded expectations. The Kings should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 50.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#16 in the league). They have moved up from #29 in the league back on 10/28.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 55.6% (#17 in League). They average 113.7 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112. On the road they average 112.9 (110.6 expected), and at home 114.4 ppg (113.3 expected).
DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.7 true FG% (#24 in League). Even though they allow a high shooting %, they actually allow fewer points (114.8) than expected (115.2). They are allowing 116.6 (115.3 expected) on the road, and at home 113.1 ppg (115.1 expected).
REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 3.4 per game (#25 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.5 per game (#3 in league).
NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The Kings next 4 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 2-2 (43% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 3.9%. At #9 in the conference, they are behind the Clippers by one game. With a +0.77 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Lakers by 1.5 games. With a +0.74 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Kings are just the 28th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Kings are playing 4 games, traveling 1774 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #25 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)FEB 6CLOSE GAME57% HOU--FEB 8CLOSE GAME56% MIA--FEB 10LIKELY WIN74% PHO--FEB 13LIKELY LOSS18% @DEN887 milesFEB 21LIKELY LOSS20% @GS72 milesFEB 23LIKELY LOSS27% @OKC1339 milesFEB 25LIKELY LOSS36% @MIN1512 milesFEB 27CLOSE GAME47% MIL--MAR 1LIKELY WIN77% LAC--MAR 4LIKELY WIN81% NY--
According to Sportsline the Sacramento Kings are +3 underdogs but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|De'Aaron Fox||32.6||100% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #11)|
|Willie Cauley-Stein||23.8||97% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #16)|
|Buddy Hield||26.1||99% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #22)|
|Marvin Bagley III||22.8||94% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #34)|
|Bogdan Bogdanovic||21.2||86% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #42)|
|Nemanja Bjelica||15.9||38% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #70)|