Kings Playoff Chances At 33%... And Are Trending Up

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Kings are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. On 6/15 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 30.7% on 12/14. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 33.1%. Before the start of their 3 game winning streak they were at 12.9%. They have virtually no chance at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 6% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 1.9%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 0.2% (500/1 odds) and a 0.1% chance of winning it all (1000/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #7 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #13 Toughest

Kings' Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%West ChampNBA Champ
Feb 641.133.7%0.1%0%
Dec 1441.330.7%0.4%0.1%
Difference-0.2+3%-0.3%--

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A

At 28-25 the Kings are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 21 wins. In the process of beating expectations they have had 19 impressive wins where they won as betting underdogs or won big as slight favorites vs 3 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 17-10 home record is +18% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-4, 60%) is better than their expected 44% win percentage. In the pre-season, the Kings were expected to be a below average team (#27) in power rank, but they have greatly exceeded expectations. The Kings should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 50.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#16 in the league). They have moved up from #29 in the league back on 10/28.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 55.6% (#17 in League). They average 113.7 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112. On the road they average 112.9 (110.6 expected), and at home 114.4 ppg (113.3 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.7 true FG% (#24 in League). Even though they allow a high shooting %, they actually allow fewer points (114.8) than expected (115.2). They are allowing 116.6 (115.3 expected) on the road, and at home 113.1 ppg (115.1 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 3.4 per game (#25 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.5 per game (#3 in league).

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The Kings next 4 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 2-2 (43% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 3.9%. At #9 in the conference, they are behind the Clippers by one game. With a +0.77 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Lakers by 1.5 games. With a +0.74 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Kings are just the 28th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Kings are playing 4 games, traveling 1774 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #25 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

FEB 6
CLOSE GAME
57% HOU
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FEB 8
CLOSE GAME
56% MIA
--
FEB 10
LIKELY WIN
74% PHO
--
FEB 13
LIKELY LOSS
18% @DEN
887 miles
FEB 21
LIKELY LOSS
20% @GS
72 miles
FEB 23
LIKELY LOSS
27% @OKC
1339 miles
FEB 25
LIKELY LOSS
36% @MIN
1512 miles
FEB 27
CLOSE GAME
47% MIL
--
MAR 1
LIKELY WIN
77% LAC
--
MAR 4
LIKELY WIN
81% NY
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According to Sportsline the Sacramento Kings are +3 underdogs but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
De'Aaron Fox32.6100% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #11)
Willie Cauley-Stein23.897% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #16)
Buddy Hield26.199% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #22)
Marvin Bagley III22.894% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #34)
Bogdan Bogdanovic21.286% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #42)
Nemanja Bjelica15.938% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #70)