Lakers Playoff Chances At 26%... And Are Trending Up

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Lakers are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. On 6/15 they had a 0.8% chance before increasing to 97.1% on 7/2. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 25.5%. They have virtually no chance at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 2% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 0.6%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 4.8% (20/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #14 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #8 Toughest

Lakers' Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%West ChampNBA Champ
Feb 2440.525.5%0%0%
Jul 951.496.6%7.5%3.8%
Difference-10.9-71.1%-7.5%-3.8%

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 29-30 the Lakers are behind their money line projected win total of 30.4 wins. They have 17 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 11 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 40% of their road games and were expected to win 45%. At home they have a 59% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 59%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 2-5, 29%. In simulations, the Lakers are a below average team and won 47.9% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#18 in the league). They have moved up from #22 in the league back on 6/20.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 55.7% (#15 in League). They average 112.3 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 114. On the road they average 113.4 (113.2 expected), and at home 111.1 ppg (114.8 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.8 true FG% (#5 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 61.2% in their last 7 games. They allow 113.6 pts per game vs an expected value of 113.6. They are allowing 116.6 (114.9 expected) on the road, and at home 110.4 ppg (112.2 expected).

REBOUNDING (ABOVE AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounding opponents by +0.3 per game (#16 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2.2 per game (#29 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (32% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 15.3%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 2.5%. At #10 in the conference, they are behind the Kings by 2 games. They have a +0.66 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Timberwolves by one game. With a +0.63 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Lakers are the 3rd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Lakers are playing 7 games, traveling 2321 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #14 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

FEB 25
CLOSE GAME
50% @MEM
1603 miles
FEB 27
CLOSE GAME
56% NO
--
MAR 1
LIKELY LOSS
36% MIL
--
MAR 2**
LIKELY WIN
66% @PHO
359 miles
MAR 4
LIKELY WIN
66% LAC
--
MAR 6
CLOSE GAME
55% DEN
--
MAR 9
CLOSE GAME
46% BOS
--
MAR 12
LIKELY WIN
66% @CHI
1743 miles
MAR 14
LIKELY LOSS
26% @TOR
2175 miles
MAR 15**
CLOSE GAME
43% @DET
1345 miles

The LA Lakers' next game is on February 25. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
LeBron James48.6100% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #8)
Kyle Kuzma25.799% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #22)
JaVale McGee16.968% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #23)
Brandon Ingram23.896% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #30)
Tyson Chandler6.13% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #49)
Lonzo Ball22.784% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #41)