Love ($4.6K) vs Lyles ($4.7K): FD Projections Decide Who Is the Better Value

As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

Projected for 28.7 FanDuel pts Kevin Love is the #6 ranked power forward. At $4600 he is expected to be the #20 power forward. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $6.9K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). Noah Vonleh is also priced at $4600, and Love is a better option at this price. Paul Millsap (25.7 FP), P.J. Tucker (20.1 FP), Jeff Green (19.6 FP), Serge Ibaka (27.8 FP), and Al-Farouq Aminu (20.6 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Love but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 19.2 FPs, a value reached in 68 of 160 games (42%). The combined 'cover percentage' for power forwards priced at $4.0K and above is 44%.

  • 2/11 MATCHUP: CLE vs NY, CLE Vegas Line Expectation 106.2 Points (#13 most points for the day)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 28.7 Fantasy Points (#6), 15.4 pts (#3), 9 reb (#3), 1.9 ast (#10), 0.8 stl (#9), 0.3 blk (#32), 1.8 3pt (#4), 1.6 turnovers (#6 most)

DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Based on a projected 32.5 DraftKings points Love is fairly ranked. He is the #3 highest priced power forward ($7300). Based on the projection, Love is worth $6.6K. Based on salary, he is expected to have 36 FPs, a value reached in 46 of 160 games (29%). The combined 'cover percentage' for power forwards priced at $4.0K and above is 38%.

Love is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Kevin Love could be someone to consider. He is projected to be the #17 forward in week 18 and he is only starting in 19% of leagues. When compared to other forwards in week 18 Kevin Knox (67 FP) is projected for more points and is starting in fewer leagues. LaMarcus Aldridge (35 FP), Serge Ibaka (50 FP), Tobias Harris (56 FP), Khris Middleton (55 FP), and Andrew Wiggins (55 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Love but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 19% of leagues he is expected to produce 53.5 fantasy points (WK 18). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #25 forward of week 18. He is projected to be better than that (the #17 forward). His per game projected FP average is 28.6 which is better than his actual per game average (2.8).

Lower Start%K. Love WK 18Higher Start%
K. Knox (67 FP)57 FPL. Aldridge (35 FP)
 
#25 ForwardS. Ibaka (50 FP)
 
 
T. Harris (56 FP)
 
 
K. Middleton (55 FP)
 
 
A. Wiggins (56 FP)

He is projected for 58 fantasy points in week 18 (#17 F) in 2 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
58 (#17) 
Points 
31 (#22) 
Rebounds18.9 (#5) 
 
Assists 
 
3.8 (#43)
Steals 
 
1.7 (#36)
Blocks 
 
0.7 (#74)
3 PT Made 
3.6 (#15) 
Turnovers 
 
3.2 (#27)

  • Based on 2/11 start percentages, Kevin Love is valued behind Kuzma and above Green but the projections rank these players in reverse order in week 18.
  • Feb 11Feb 13
    27.6 FP vs NY29.7 FP vs BKN

    Kevin Love last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    2/8 @WAS7 FP, 6 FD, 7 DK6 Min, 4 Pts, 1 Reb, 1 Ast, 34 TS%, 39% USG
    10/24 vs BKN29 FP, 30 FD, 35 DK29 Min, 14 Pts, 11 Reb, 2 Ast, 62.5 TS%, 18% USG
    10/21 vs ATL37 FP, 38 FD, 44 DK34 Min, 16 Pts, 17 Reb, 3 Ast, 38.5 TS%, 27% USG
    10/19 @MIN56 FP, 54 FD, 63 DK39 Min, 25 Pts, 19 Reb, 7 Ast, 53.4 TS%, 27% USG
    10/17 @TOR29 FP, 28 FD, 32 DK34 Min, 21 Pts, 7 Reb, 2 Ast, 43.5 TS%, 32% USG

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    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    As of 2/11, Kevin Love is the #25 ranked forward based on ownership percentage (99%). Our projections indicate that Kevin Love is underrated by the market. His fantasy forward projection rank is #17. Even if he is highly owned, he is still undervalued and if you act quickly there is a clear buy low opportunity. Unless someone offers an even better forward value, we advise you to hold on to him. He is projected for 746 fantasy points in 26 remaining games. His projected average FP rank is the same as his rest of season total rank. The market ranks Kevin Love behind Kuzma and above Green but the projections rank these players in reverse order. His value could significantly increase if he was more of an offensive threat, especially from inside the three-point arc. But he does do better in the other areas of the game.

    Lower Own%K. Love ROSHigher Own%
    D. Green (757 FP)746 FPD. Gallinari (699 FP)
     
    #25 ForwardS. Ibaka (611 FP)
     
     
    T. Harris (735 FP)
     
     
    A. Wiggins (676 FP)
     
     
    J. Randle (744 FP)
    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    746 (#17) 
    Points 
    415 (#24) 
    Rebounds244 (#3) 
     
    Assists 
     
    51.3 (#41)
    Steals 
     
    18 (#56)
    Blocks 
     
    9 (#77)
    3 PT Made 
    48 (#19) 
    Turnovers 
     
    42 (#28)