NBA ATS Pick of the Night: Take Portland Trailblazers -6.5 at Home vs Charlotte Hornets

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Friday, January 11, 2019

Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the 76ers over the Hawks. The projected score is 76ers 118 and Hawks 104, and Philadelphia is winning 79% of the sims. At -714 on the moneyline, the 76ers implied probability to win is 88 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Hawks based on how the moneyline is moving. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Hawks averaged 104 and the 76ers 101 ppg. The computer would set the spread at PHI -13.5. With more action on the Hawks, oddsmakers have moved the line from +12.5 to +10.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the 76ers are 15-14-0. As an underdog, the Hawks are 18-21-0. The Hawks are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the 76ers. The 76ers were favored by an average of -0.1 points in these games but the Hawks won by an average of 3.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Hawks232110.8104.316%21%104.4 (4 Wins)
Philadelphia 76ers-10.5121.2117.784%79%100.9 (4 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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Milwaukee Bucks vs Washington Wizards

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Wizards are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Wizards 113 and Bucks 111, with Washington winning 54% of the time. The moneyline for the Bucks is -125 which translates to 56 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Wizards to win. The Wizards have the recent head-to-head edge going 5-3. In these games, the Bucks averaged 105 and the Wizards 103 ppg. The projection based point spread is WAS -2. Bettors seem to be favoring the Wizards with the Vegas moving from +7 to +1.5. The Bucks have a record of 19-15-1 as a favorite. The Wizards have a record of 8-14-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Wizards are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Bucks. The Wizards were favored by an average of -0.8 points in these games but the Bucks won by an average of 1.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Bucks226.5114.0111.153%46%104.6 (3 Wins)
Washington Wizards+1.5112.5113.047%54%103.0 (5 Wins)

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Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Pacers over the Knicks despite being on the road. The projected score is Pacers 114 and Knicks 107, with Indiana winning 67% of the latest sims. At -400 on the moneyline, the Pacers implied probability to win is 80 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Pacers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games, the Pacers averaged 111 and the Knicks 104 ppg. The projection based point spread is IND -6.5. With more action on the Knicks side, the line has adjusted from +9 to +8.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Pacers are 12-13-1. As an underdog, the Knicks are 15-15-2. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head with one push. The average point spread in these games was Pacers -7.4 and they won by an average of 7.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indiana Pacers218.5113.5113.877%67%110.8 (4 Wins)
New York Knicks+8.5105.0107.223%33%103.6 (1 Win)

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Brooklyn Nets vs Toronto Raptors

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Raptors to win the game. The projected score is Raptors 114 and Nets 107, and Toronto is winning 67% of simulations. The Raptors are -560 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 85 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Raptors have been dominating this matchup recently with a 8-1 record. In these games the Raptors averaged 116 points per game and the Nets 105. The projection based point spread is TOR -7. Bettors seem to be favoring the Raptors as the Vegas line has moved from -9.5 to -10. The Raptors have a record of 13-20-1 as a favorite. The Nets have a record of 15-16-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Raptors have the ATS edge head to head going 5-4-0 vs the Nets. The Raptors were favored by an average of -10.6 points in these games and they won by an average of 11.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Brooklyn Nets223.5106.8106.719%33%104.6 (1 Win)
Toronto Raptors-10.0116.7113.681%67%115.7 (8 Wins)

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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Houston Rockets

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Rockets to win the game. The projected score is Rockets 117 and Cavaliers 101, and Houston is winning 84% of simulations. At -2000 on the moneyline, the Rockets implied probability to win is 95 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Rockets are 3-2. In these games the Rockets averaged 116 points per game and the Cavaliers 112. The computer would set the spread at HOU -16. With more action on the Cavaliers, oddsmakers have moved the line from +14.5 to +14. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rockets are 16-15-0. As an underdog, the Cavaliers are 18-20-0. The Cavaliers have been better against the spread than straight up vs the Rockets. The Cavaliers have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Rockets. The Rockets were favored by an average of -2.7 points in these games and they won by an average of 4.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cleveland Cavaliers217101.5101.18%16%111.6 (2 Wins)
Houston Rockets-14.0115.5117.092%84%116.4 (3 Wins)

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Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves

The odds favor the Timberwolves, and the sims are solidly on the Timberwolves as well. The projected score is Timberwolves 114 and Mavericks 108, with Minnesota winning 65% of the time. The Timberwolves are -210 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 68 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Mavericks based on how the moneyline is moving. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Timberwolves going 6-2. In these games the Timberwolves averaged 104 points per game and the Mavericks 98. The projection based point spread is MIN -6.5. With more action on the Mavericks, oddsmakers have moved the line from +5.5 to +5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Timberwolves are 12-8-0. As an underdog, the Mavericks are 16-9-0. They both covered the spread 4 times in their last few matchups. The Timberwolves were favored by an average of -4.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 6.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Mavericks224109.5108.135%35%98.0 (2 Wins)
Minnesota Timberwolves-5.0114.5114.565%65%104.2 (6 Wins)

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Charlotte Hornets vs Portland Trail Blazers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Trail Blazers to win the game. The projected score is Trail Blazers 118 and Hornets 106, with Portland winning 80% of the time. At -270 on the moneyline, the Trail Blazers implied probability to win is 73 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Trail Blazers have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. Both teams have averaged 100 points in these games. The computer would set the spread at POR -12.5. With more action on the Hornets, oddsmakers have moved the line from +7 to +6.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Trail Blazers are 14-11-0. As an underdog, the Hornets are 9-7-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Trail Blazers are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Hornets. The average point spread in these games was Hornets -0.5 but the Trail Blazers won by an average of 0.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Charlotte Hornets223.5108.5105.630%20%99.8 (1 Win)
Portland Trail Blazers-6.5115.0118.170%80%100.5 (3 Wins)

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LA Lakers vs Utah Jazz

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Jazz over the Lakers. The projected score is Jazz 114 and Lakers 108, with Utah winning 66% of the time. The moneyline for the Jazz is -385 which translates to 79 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Jazz going 7-1. In these games the Jazz averaged 101 points per game and the Lakers 94. The projection based point spread is UTA -6.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -8.5. The Jazz have a record of 15-14-0 as a favorite. The Lakers have a record of 6-7-0 as an underdog. The Lakers have been better against the spread than straight up vs the Jazz. The Lakers are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Jazz. The Jazz were favored by an average of -7.7 points in these games and they won by an average of 6.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
LA Lakers215.5103.5107.824%34%94.5 (1 Win)
Utah Jazz-8.5112.0114.576%66%101.1 (7 Wins)

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Chicago Bulls vs Golden State Warriors

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Warriors to win the game. The projected score is Warriors 113 and Bulls 102, with Golden State winning 77% of the time. The moneyline for the Warriors is -2000 which translates to 95 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Warriors going 4-1. In these games the Warriors averaged 124 points per game and the Bulls 103. The projection based point spread is GS -11.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -15. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Warriors are 15-21-0. As an underdog, the Bulls are 19-21-0. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Warriors are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Bulls. The Warriors were favored by an average of -12.3 points in these games and they won by an average of 21 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Bulls219.5102.2101.58%23%103.2 (1 Win)
Golden State Warriors-15.0117.3113.192%77%124.2 (4 Wins)

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Saturday, January 12, 2019

Detroit Pistons vs LA Clippers

The Clippers are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Clippers 116 and Pistons 112, and Los Angeles is winning 61% of simulations. The moneyline for the Clippers is -303 which translates to 75 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Clippers averaged 102 points per game and the Pistons 95. The computer would set the spread at LAC -4.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -7. The Clippers have a record of 17-7-0 as a favorite. The Pistons have a record of 12-13-1 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The Clippers were favored by an average of -4.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 6.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Pistons221107.0111.828%39%95.0 (2 Wins)
LA Clippers-7.0114.0116.372%61%101.5 (2 Wins)

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Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat

The odds favor the Heat, and the sims are solidly on the Heat as well. The projected score is Heat 104 and Grizzlies 98, with Miami winning 64% of the time. The moneyline for the Heat is -189 which translates to 65 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Heat have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games the Heat averaged 104 points per game and the Grizzlies 92. The computer would set the spread at MIA -6. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Heat are 8-13-0. As an underdog, the Grizzlies are 9-15-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Heat have the ATS edge head to head going 4-1-0 vs the Grizzlies. The average point spread in these games was Grizzlies -0.4 but the Heat won by an average of 12 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Memphis Grizzlies196.595.897.836%36%91.8 (1 Win)
Miami Heat-5.0100.7103.764%64%103.8 (4 Wins)

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Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic

The Celtics are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Celtics 108 and Magic 101, with Boston winning 67% of the latest sims. At -251 on the moneyline, the Celtics implied probability to win is 72 percent. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Celtics going 6-2. In these games, the Celtics averaged 108 and the Magic 96 ppg. The projection based point spread is BOS -7. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening ORL +6.5. The Celtics have a record of 20-14-0 as a favorite. The Magic have a record of 15-15-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Celtics are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Magic. The average point spread in these games was Celtics -7.2 and they won by an average of 11.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Celtics213.5110.0107.970%67%107.6 (6 Wins)
Orlando Magic+6.5103.5100.730%33%96.4 (2 Wins)

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New Orleans Pelicans vs Minnesota Timberwolves

The odds favor the Timberwolves, and the sims are solidly on the Timberwolves as well. The projected score is Timberwolves 116 and Pelicans 110, with Minnesota winning 62% of the time. At -130 on the moneyline, the Timberwolves implied probability to win is 57 percent. The Timberwolves have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-1 record. In these games the Timberwolves averaged 113 points per game and the Pelicans 105. The projection based point spread is MIN -5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -2. The Timberwolves have a record of 12-8-0 as a favorite. The Pelicans have a record of 7-10-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Timberwolves have the ATS edge head to head going 5-1-0 vs the Pelicans. The average point spread in these games was Pelicans -0.8 but the Timberwolves won by an average of 8.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Pelicans234.5116.2110.545%38%104.7 (1 Win)
Minnesota Timberwolves-2.0118.3115.755%62%113.2 (5 Wins)

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San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Thunder are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Thunder 119 and Spurs 114, with Oklahoma City winning 61% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Spurs are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. In these games, the Spurs averaged 105 and the Thunder 104 ppg. The computer would set the spread at OKC -5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Thunder have a record of 16-15-1 as a favorite. The Spurs have a record of 12-8-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Spurs have the ATS edge head to head going 6-2-0 vs the Thunder. The average point spread in these games was Spurs -0.1 and they won by an average of 1.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Antonio Spurs----113.8--39%105.2 (5 Wins)
Oklahoma City Thunder----118.9--61%104.0 (3 Wins)

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Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns

The current simulations favor the Nuggets, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Nuggets 114 and Suns 106, with Denver winning 70% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Nuggets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games, the Nuggets averaged 120 and the Suns 108 ppg. The projection based point spread is DEN -8. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Suns have a record of 6-14-1 as a favorite. The Nuggets have a record of 6-5-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Nuggets have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Suns. The average point spread in these games was Nuggets -8.6 and they won by an average of 11.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Denver Nuggets----113.9--70%119.6 (4 Wins)
Phoenix Suns----105.8--30%108.2 (1 Win)

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Charlotte Hornets vs Sacramento Kings

The odds favor the Kings, and the sims are solidly on the Kings as well. The projected score is Kings 118 and Hornets 110, and Sacramento is winning 67% of the sims. At -207 on the moneyline, the Kings implied probability to win is 67 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Hornets have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games, the Hornets averaged 112 and the Kings 103 ppg. The computer would set the spread at SAC -7.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -5.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Kings are 13-8-1. As an underdog, the Hornets are 9-7-0. They both covered the spread 2 times in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Hornets -6.4 and they won by an average of 9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Charlotte Hornets235114.8110.234%33%112.0 (3 Wins)
Sacramento Kings-5.5120.2117.866%67%103.0 (1 Win)

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Chicago Bulls vs Utah Jazz

The Jazz are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Jazz 112 and Bulls 102, with Utah winning 74% of the time. The Jazz are -714 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 88 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Bulls have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games the Jazz averaged 93 points per game and the Bulls 91. The computer would set the spread at UTA -10.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -11. The Jazz have a record of 15-14-0 as a favorite. The Bulls have a record of 19-21-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Bulls are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Jazz. The Jazz were favored by an average of -5.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 2.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Bulls205.597.2101.516%26%90.8 (3 Wins)
Utah Jazz-11.0108.3111.984%74%93.2 (1 Win)

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