NBA Championship Futures: Bucks Top East But Pacers are Best Value

There is a large 7.2% difference between the Bucks and the 76ers. The Milwaukee Bucks lead with a 29 percent chance of winning the East and the Philadelphia 76ers are at 21.8%. The difference between these teams is widening as the 76ers chances are down from 27.5 percent. While 3.55 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #6 best record and the #7 best record is pretty large. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the conference, there are 6 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

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EAST FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
Milwaukee Bucks54.169.7%99.9%5/4 (44.4%)29.0%
Philadelphia 76ers52.049.9%99.7%3/2 (40%)21.8%
Boston Celtics50.633.6%99.4%15/2 (11.8%)18.1%
Indiana Pacers51.029.7%99.6%12/1 (7.7%)14.2%
Toronto Raptors47.011.5%97.7%25/1 (3.8%)7.3%
Brooklyn Nets45.45.0%93.8%12/1 (7.7%)5.4%
Miami Heat41.861.7%75.8%40/1 (2.4%)1.7%
Detroit Pistons40.80.6%68.1%120/1 (0.8%)1.5%
Orlando Magic39.735.1%57.0%80/1 (1.2%)0.9%
Washington Wizards30.80.7%2.0%400/1 (0.2%)--
Chicago Bulls24.70.0%0.0%80/1 (1.2%)--
Atlanta Hawks32.32.3%6.0%120/1 (0.8%)--
Charlotte Hornets26.70.1%0.3%400/1 (0.2%)--
New York Knicks26.40.0%0.4%400/1 (0.2%)--
Cleveland Cavaliers24.00.0%0.0%400/1 (0.2%)--

There is a 4.3% difference between conference leaders. The LA Clippers lead with a 25.3 percent chance of winning the West and the LA Lakers are at 21%. The gap seems to be widening. The Lakers chances are down from 28.6 percent. There is a 7.11 difference in projected win total between the #6 best record and the #7 best record in the conference. This is a pretty significant difference even if it does not seem to be at first glance. There are 6 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the conference.

WEST FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
LA Clippers53.952.1%99.7%2/1 (33.3%)25.3%
LA Lakers51.732.2%99.3%9/4 (30.8%)21.0%
Denver Nuggets52.258.0%99.4%10/1 (9.1%)14.6%
Houston Rockets51.488.5%98.9%5/1 (16.7%)13.0%
Golden State Warriors49.815.8%97.1%8/1 (11.1%)12.8%
Utah Jazz50.839.3%98.5%9/1 (10%)10.2%
Portland Trail Blazers43.72.7%71.6%20/1 (4.8%)1.3%
San Antonio Spurs43.38.2%68.8%30/1 (3.2%)1.2%
Dallas Mavericks39.72.0%32.3%60/1 (1.6%)0.4%
New Orleans Pelicans38.01.3%20.2%60/1 (1.6%)0.1%
Oklahoma City Thunder35.40.0%7.5%600/1 (0.2%)--
Sacramento Kings34.60.0%6.5%120/1 (0.8%)--
Memphis Grizzlies28.70.0%0.2%600/1 (0.2%)--
Minnesota Timberwolves27.90.0%0.1%600/1 (0.2%)--
Phoenix Suns24.90.0%0.0%600/1 (0.2%)--

Getting into the playoffs will be the peak of the season one playoff team. There are 11 winning it all in at least two percent of simulations. At the top, the Clippers have a 2 percentage point lead over the Bucks. At the bottom of the contenders list, 3.3 percentage points separate the Pacers from the Raptors.

CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
LA Clippers7/222.2%16.5%DOWN
Milwaukee Bucks6/114.3%14.3%DOWN
LA Lakers4/120.0%13.5%DOWN
Philadelphia 76ers8/111.1%9.8%DOWN
Denver Nuggets16/15.9%7.9%DOWN
Boston Celtics25/13.8%7.6%DOWN
Golden State Warriors12/17.7%7.2%DOWN
Houston Rockets8/111.1%7.2%DOWN
Indiana Pacers50/12.0%5.5%DOWN
Utah Jazz14/16.7%5.3%DOWN
Toronto Raptors100/11.0%2.2%DOWN
Brooklyn Nets50/12.0%1.3%--