NBA Championship Futures: Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics are Best Values

There is a large 8.3% difference between the Bucks and the 76ers. The Philadelphia 76ers at 21.9% trail the Milwaukee Bucks at 30.3%. The gap seems to be widening. The 76ers chances are down from 25.5 percent. There is a 0.6 difference in projected win total between the #6 best record and the #7 best record in the conference. This is a pretty significant difference even if it does not seem to be at first glance. This is a top heavy conference with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

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Milwaukee Bucks53.163.5%99.9%5/4 (44.4%)30.3%
Philadelphia 76ers51.858.5%99.8%3/2 (40%)21.9%
Indiana Pacers51.036.1%99.6%12/1 (7.7%)16.8%
Boston Celtics48.824.4%98.7%15/2 (11.8%)14.3%
Toronto Raptors46.513.3%96.9%25/1 (3.8%)7.0%
Brooklyn Nets44.23.8%90.3%12/1 (7.7%)3.7%
Miami Heat43.670.1%86.6%40/1 (2.4%)3.4%
Orlando Magic39.926.3%58.5%80/1 (1.2%)1.4%
Detroit Pistons39.70.4%56.3%120/1 (0.8%)1.1%
Atlanta Hawks33.22.5%8.3%120/1 (0.8%)--
Chicago Bulls24.40.0%0.0%80/1 (1.2%)--
Washington Wizards32.01.0%4.2%400/1 (0.2%)--
Charlotte Hornets27.00.1%0.4%400/1 (0.2%)--
New York Knicks26.00.0%0.2%400/1 (0.2%)--
Cleveland Cavaliers24.50.0%0.0%400/1 (0.2%)--

The percentage difference at the top of the conference is at 3.1%. The LA Lakers at 22.1% trail the LA Clippers at 25.2%. The gap seems to be widening. The Lakers chances are down from 28.6 percent. A difference of 2.01 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #6 best record and the #7 best record in the conference is considerable. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the conference, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

LA Clippers52.948.7%99.2%2/1 (33.3%)25.2%
LA Lakers50.629.5%98.0%9/4 (30.8%)22.1%
Golden State Warriors50.121.9%96.4%8/1 (11.1%)13.5%
Houston Rockets50.169.1%96.9%5/1 (16.7%)11.8%
Denver Nuggets49.749.2%96.8%10/1 (9.1%)10.7%
Utah Jazz48.938.3%94.5%9/1 (10%)8.7%
San Antonio Spurs46.827.7%88.0%30/1 (3.2%)4.4%
Portland Trail Blazers45.312.4%78.3%20/1 (4.8%)3.2%
New Orleans Pelicans39.82.2%26.5%60/1 (1.6%)0.4%
Dallas Mavericks38.10.9%14.9%60/1 (1.6%)--
Sacramento Kings34.80.0%5.0%120/1 (0.8%)--
Oklahoma City Thunder34.80.1%3.9%600/1 (0.2%)--
Memphis Grizzlies32.80.1%1.5%600/1 (0.2%)--
Minnesota Timberwolves27.10.0%0.0%600/1 (0.2%)--
Phoenix Suns25.50.0%0.0%600/1 (0.2%)--

Getting into the playoffs will be the peak of the season one playoff team. There are 11 winning it all in at least two percent of simulations. At #2, the Clippers have a 16 percent chance of winning the championship, which is 0 percentage points behind the Bucks. The separation between the team with the #9 highest chances vs the #11 highest is 2.7 percentage points.

Milwaukee Bucks6/114.3%16.1%DOWN
LA Clippers7/222.2%16.0%DOWN
LA Lakers4/120.0%13.4%DOWN
Philadelphia 76ers8/111.1%10.2%DOWN
Golden State Warriors12/17.7%7.3%DOWN
Indiana Pacers50/12.0%7.0%DOWN
Houston Rockets8/111.1%6.1%DOWN
Boston Celtics25/13.8%5.8%DOWN
Denver Nuggets16/15.9%5.3%DOWN
Utah Jazz14/16.7%4.7%DOWN
Toronto Raptors100/11.0%2.6%DOWN
San Antonio Spurs50/12.0%1.6%DOWN
Portland Trail Blazers40/12.4%1.5%DOWN