NBA Computer Projection Gives Orlando a Shot at Upsetting Raptors

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Saturday, April 13, 2019

Brooklyn Nets vs Philadelphia 76ers

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Nets as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Nets 114 and 76ers 113, with Brooklyn winning 51% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the 76ers is -227 which translates to 69 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Nets based on how the moneyline is moving. The 76ers are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. In these games the 76ers averaged 118 points per game and the Nets 114. If you used the computer projected score to set the line, this would be a pick 'em. Bettors seem to be favoring the Nets with the Vegas moving from +7.5 to +5.5. The 76ers have a record of 27-31-0 as a favorite. The Nets have a record of 28-25-0 as an underdog. While they may be 3-5 straight up vs the 76ers, the Nets have been better against the spread. The Nets have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the 76ers. The 76ers were favored by an average of -6.5 points in these games and they won by an average of 4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Brooklyn Nets231.5113.0114.134%51%113.5 (3 Wins)
Philadelphia 76ers-5.5118.5114.066%49%117.5 (5 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Raptors to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Raptors 109 and Magic 105, and Toronto is winning 59% of simulations. At -420 on the moneyline, the Raptors implied probability to win is 81 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Raptors have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-2 record. Both teams have averaged 103 points in these games. The computer would set the spread at TOR -3.5. With more action on the Magic, oddsmakers have moved the line from +9 to +8.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Raptors are 28-38-1. As an underdog, the Magic are 29-23-1. The Magic have been better against the spread than straight up vs the Raptors. The Magic have the ATS edge head to head going 4-2-1 vs the Raptors. The Raptors were favored by an average of -7.7 points in these games and they won by an average of 0.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Orlando Magic213102.2105.023%41%102.9 (2 Wins)
Toronto Raptors-8.5110.8108.777%59%103.0 (5 Wins)

LA Clippers vs Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Warriors 120 and Clippers 107, and Golden State is winning 79% of simulations. The moneyline for the Warriors is -1111 which translates to 92 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Warriors going 6-2. In these games the Warriors averaged 124 points per game and the Clippers 114. The projection based point spread is GS -13.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Clippers with the Vegas moving from +13 to +12.5. The Warriors have a record of 31-43-1 as a favorite. The Clippers have a record of 15-21-2 as an underdog. They both covered the spread 4 times in their last few matchups. The Warriors were favored by an average of -8.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 9.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
LA Clippers232109.8106.812%21%114.5 (2 Wins)
Golden State Warriors-12.5122.2120.288%79%123.8 (6 Wins)

San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Nuggets over the Spurs. The projected score is Nuggets 114 and Spurs 106, and Denver is winning 72% of simulations. At -244 on the moneyline, the Nuggets implied probability to win is 71 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. Both teams have averaged 106 points in these games. The projection based point spread is DEN -9. Bettors seem to be favoring the Spurs with the Vegas moving from +6 to +5.5. The Nuggets have a record of 30-27-0 as a favorite. The Spurs have a record of 18-14-1 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. Both have covered 4 times head-to-head. The Nuggets were favored by an average of -0.1 points in these games but the Spurs won by an average of 0.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Antonio Spurs211102.8105.532%28%105.6 (4 Wins)
Denver Nuggets-5.5108.2114.368%72%105.5 (4 Wins)

Sunday, April 14, 2019

Indiana Pacers vs Boston Celtics

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Celtics over the Pacers. The projected score is Celtics 111 and Pacers 104, and Boston is winning 67% of the sims. At -312 on the moneyline, the Celtics implied probability to win is 76 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Celtics since the moneyline is moving that way. The Celtics have the recent head-to-head edge going 5-3. In these games the Celtics averaged 109 points per game and the Pacers 103. The projection based point spread is BOS -7. More of the action seems to be on the Celtics with the Vegas line moving from -6.5 to -7. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Celtics are 30-33-2. As an underdog, the Pacers are 16-19-0. While they may be 3-5 straight up vs the Celtics, the Pacers have been better against the spread. The Pacers are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Celtics. The Celtics were favored by an average of -4.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 6.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indiana Pacers209.5101.2104.328%33%103.0 (3 Wins)
Boston Celtics-7.0108.3111.272%67%109.4 (5 Wins)

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail Blazers

The odds favor the Trail Blazers, and the sims are solidly on the Trail Blazers as well. The projected score is Trail Blazers 115 and Thunder 111, and Portland is winning 60% of simulations. The moneyline for the Trail Blazers is -160 which translates to 62 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Trail Blazers since the moneyline is moving that way. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Thunder averaged 112 and the Trail Blazers 111 ppg. The projection based point spread is POR -4. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3. The Trail Blazers have a record of 31-20-1 as a favorite. The Thunder have a record of 13-8-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. They both covered the spread 4 times in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Thunder -1.8 and they won by an average of 0.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Oklahoma City Thunder225111.0111.441%40%111.6 (4 Wins)
Portland Trail Blazers-3.0114.0115.359%60%111.4 (4 Wins)

Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Bucks to win the game. The projected score is Bucks 116 and Pistons 107, and Milwaukee is winning 71% of the sims. At -1111 on the moneyline, the Bucks implied probability to win is 92 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Bucks to win. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Bucks going 6-2. In these games the Bucks averaged 106 points per game and the Pistons 101. The projection based point spread is MIL -9.5. More of the action seems to be on the Bucks with the Vegas line moving from -11.5 to -12.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Bucks are 40-30-3. As an underdog, the Pistons are 20-22-3. The Pistons have been better against the spread than straight up vs the Bucks. The Pistons are 4-3-1 against the spread vs the Bucks. The Bucks were favored by an average of -4.4 points in these games and they won by an average of 4.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Pistons219.5103.5106.712%29%101.1 (2 Wins)
Milwaukee Bucks-12.5116.0116.188%71%105.5 (6 Wins)

Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Rockets to win the game, and home field advantage is a big reason why. The projected score is Rockets 113 and Jazz 110, and Houston is winning 57% of the sims. The Rockets are -245 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 71 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Rockets based on how the moneyline is moving. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Rockets going 10-3. In these games the Rockets averaged 109 points per game and the Jazz 100. The projection based point spread is HOU -3. Bettors seem to be favoring the Rockets as the Vegas line has moved from -5.5 to -6.5. The Rockets have a record of 31-32-2 as a favorite. The Jazz have a record of 11-7-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Rockets are 9-4-0 against the spread vs the Jazz. The Rockets were favored by an average of -5.2 points in these games and they won by an average of 8.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Utah Jazz214103.8110.332%43%100.1 (3 Wins)
Houston Rockets-6.5110.2113.168%57%108.8 (10 Wins)