NBA Free Pick: Take Rockets +2 and Over 216.0 as Road Dogs in Utah

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Thursday, December 06, 2018

New York Knicks vs Boston Celtics

The Celtics are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Celtics 115 and Knicks 100, and Boston is winning 82% of the sims. The moneyline for the Celtics is -1250 which translates to 93 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Celtics to win. The Celtics have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2. In these games the Celtics averaged 106 points per game and the Knicks 99. The computer would set the spread at BOS -14.5. More of the action seems to be on the Celtics with the Vegas line moving from -12 to -13. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Celtics are 8-9-0. As an underdog, the Knicks are 10-8-2. They both covered the spread 3 times in their last few matchups. The Celtics were favored by an average of -7.5 points in these games and they won by an average of 7.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Knicks217.5102.2100.511%18%99.0 (2 Wins)
Boston Celtics-13.0115.3115.289%82%106.5 (4 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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Phoenix Suns vs Portland Trail Blazers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Trail Blazers to win the game. The projected score is Trail Blazers 116 and Suns 102, and Portland is winning 80% of simulations. The moneyline for the Trail Blazers is -1250 which translates to 93 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Trail Blazers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-1 record. In these games the Trail Blazers averaged 118 points per game and the Suns 107. The projection based point spread is POR -13.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -13.5. The Trail Blazers have a record of 8-7-0 as a favorite. The Suns have a record of 8-15-0 as an underdog. The Suns have been better against the spread than straight up vs the Trail Blazers. The Suns have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Trail Blazers. The Trail Blazers were favored by an average of -7.2 points in these games and they won by an average of 10.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Phoenix Suns215.5101.0102.211%20%106.9 (1 Win)
Portland Trail Blazers-13.5114.5115.889%80%117.6 (7 Wins)

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Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz

The simulations slightly favor the Rockets who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Rockets 113 and Jazz 108, and Houston is winning 61% of simulations. The moneyline for the Jazz is -130 which translates to 57 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Rockets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 9-4 record. In these games, the Rockets averaged 109 and the Jazz 102 ppg. The projection based point spread is HOU -4.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -2. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Jazz are 8-10-0. As an underdog, the Rockets are 6-10-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Rockets have the ATS edge head to head going 8-5-0 vs the Jazz. The average point spread in these games was Rockets -6.8 and they won by an average of 7.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Rockets216107.0112.846%61%109.0 (9 Wins)
Utah Jazz-2.0109.0108.254%39%101.9 (4 Wins)

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Friday, December 07, 2018

Denver Nuggets vs Charlotte Hornets

The current simulations favor the Nuggets, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Nuggets 114 and Hornets 112, with Denver winning 54% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Hornets have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games the Hornets averaged 112 points per game and the Nuggets 108. The computer would set the spread at DEN -1.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Hornets are 6-8-0. As an underdog, the Nuggets are 19-15-1. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Hornets are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Nuggets. The average point spread in these games was Nuggets -2.4 but the Hornets won by an average of 4.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Denver Nuggets----113.7--54%107.5 (1 Win)
Charlotte Hornets----112.4--46%112.0 (3 Wins)

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Philadelphia 76ers vs Detroit Pistons

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the 76ers are favored. The projected score is 76ers 110 and Pistons 108, and Philadelphia is winning 56% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the 76ers going 5-1. In these games, the 76ers averaged 112 and the Pistons 101 ppg. The computer would set the spread at PHI -2. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Pistons have a record of 5-6-0 as a favorite. The 76ers have a record of 16-17-2 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The 76ers are 5-1-0 against the spread vs the Pistons. The average point spread in these games was 76ers -2.7 and they won by an average of 11.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia 76ers----109.5--56%112.5 (5 Wins)
Detroit Pistons----107.6--44%101.2 (1 Win)

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Indiana Pacers vs Orlando Magic

The current simulations favor the Pacers, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Pacers 104 and Magic 101, with Indiana winning 57% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Pacers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-0 record. In these games, the Pacers averaged 110 and the Magic 99 ppg. The projection based point spread is IND -3. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Magic are 7-12-0. As an underdog, the Pacers are 30-28-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Pacers have the ATS edge head to head going 6-1-0 vs the Magic. The average point spread in these games was Pacers -4 and they won by an average of 11.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indiana Pacers----103.7--57%110.0 (7 Wins)
Orlando Magic----100.9--43%98.7 (0 Wins)

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Sacramento Kings vs Cleveland Cavaliers

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Kings are favored. The projected score is Kings 115 and Cavaliers 104, and Sacramento is winning 74% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. Both teams have averaged 107 points in these games. The computer would set the spread at SAC -10. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Cavaliers have a record of 25-51-1 as a favorite. The Kings have a record of 12-8-1 as an underdog. The Kings have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers were favored by an average of -9.9 points in these games and the average margin of victory was zero points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Sacramento Kings----114.6--74%107.0 (2 Wins)
Cleveland Cavaliers----104.4--26%107.0 (2 Wins)

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Toronto Raptors vs Brooklyn Nets

The current simulations favor the Raptors, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Raptors 116 and Nets 110, with Toronto being given a 64% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Raptors have been dominating this matchup recently with a 8-0 record. In these games, the Raptors averaged 117 and the Nets 104 ppg. The projection based point spread is TOR -6. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Nets have a record of 11-12-0 as a favorite. The Raptors have a record of 13-9-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Raptors have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Nets. The average point spread in these games was Raptors -10.8 and they won by an average of 12.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Raptors----116.5--64%117.0 (8 Wins)
Brooklyn Nets----110.3--36%104.4 (0 Wins)

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Chicago Bulls

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Thunder are favored. The projected score is Thunder 112 and Bulls 101, and Oklahoma City is winning 76% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Thunder have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games, the Thunder averaged 100 and the Bulls 92 ppg. The projection based point spread is OKC -11. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Bulls have a record of 6-4-0 as a favorite. The Thunder have a record of 12-11-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Thunder are 2-1-1 against the spread vs the Bulls. The average point spread in these games was Thunder -6.2 and they won by an average of 8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Oklahoma City Thunder----111.8--76%100.5 (3 Wins)
Chicago Bulls----101.0--24%92.5 (1 Win)

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Memphis Grizzlies vs New Orleans Pelicans

The current simulations favor the Pelicans, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Pelicans 114 and Grizzlies 111, with New Orleans winning 57% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Pelicans averaged 101 points per game and the Grizzlies 97. The computer would set the spread at NO -3. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Pelicans have a record of 6-8-0 as a favorite. The Grizzlies have a record of 6-6-0 as an underdog. The Grizzlies have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Pelicans. The Pelicans were favored by an average of -1.6 points in these games and they won by an average of 3.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Memphis Grizzlies----111.0--43%97.4 (4 Wins)
New Orleans Pelicans----114.0--57%101.0 (4 Wins)

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LA Lakers vs San Antonio Spurs

The current simulations slightly favor the Lakers, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Lakers 111 and Spurs 110, with Los Angeles being given a 51% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Lakers have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2. In these games, the Lakers averaged 117 and the Spurs 112 ppg. If you used the computer projected score to set the line, this would be a pick 'em. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Spurs have a record of 4-7-0 as a favorite. The Lakers have a record of 34-35-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Lakers are 4-2-0 against the spread vs the Spurs. The Spurs were favored by an average of -0.8 points in these games but the Lakers won by an average of 4.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
LA Lakers----110.9--51%116.7 (4 Wins)
San Antonio Spurs----110.8--49%111.8 (2 Wins)

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Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns

The current simulations favor the Heat, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Heat 112 and Suns 103, with Miami being given a 72% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Heat have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games, the Heat averaged 113 and the Suns 104 ppg. The projection based point spread is MIA -9. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Suns have a record of 6-13-1 as a favorite. The Heat have a record of 29-23-4 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Heat are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Suns. The average point spread in these games was Heat -5.5 and they won by an average of 9.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Heat----111.8--72%113.2 (3 Wins)
Phoenix Suns----102.6--28%103.5 (1 Win)

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Golden State Warriors vs Milwaukee Bucks

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Warriors are favored. The projected score is Warriors 122 and Bucks 110, and Golden State is winning 78% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. Head-to-head, the Warriors are 3-2. In these games, the Warriors averaged 113 and the Bucks 111 ppg. The projection based point spread is GS -12. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Bucks are 9-9-1. As an underdog, the Warriors are 3-9-0. While they may be 2-3 straight up in previous matchups, the Bucks have been better against the spread. The Bucks have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Warriors. The average point spread in these games was Warriors -6.7 and they won by an average of 2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Golden State Warriors----122.3--78%113.4 (3 Wins)
Milwaukee Bucks----110.3--22%111.4 (2 Wins)

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