NBA Futures: Bucks Lead, but Raptors and Celtics Better Values

There is a very large 27.3% difference between the Bucks and the Raptors. The Toronto Raptors at 18.9% trail the Milwaukee Bucks at 46.2%. The gap seems to be widening. The Raptors chances are down from 20.2 percent. A difference of 9.97 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #6 best record and the #7 best record in the conference is considerable. This is a top heavy conference with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

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EAST FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
Milwaukee Bucks65.3100.0%100.0%1/2 (66.7%)46.2%
Toronto Raptors56.966.9%100.0%8/1 (11.1%)18.9%
Boston Celtics55.130.9%100.0%7/1 (12.5%)14.3%
Philadelphia 76ers51.32.2%100.0%8/1 (11.1%)8.3%
Miami Heat52.6100.0%100.0%7/1 (12.5%)7.9%
Indiana Pacers46.90.0%100.0%30/1 (3.2%)3.2%
Orlando Magic36.90.0%93.8%300/1 (0.3%)0.6%
Brooklyn Nets38.40.0%96.6%100/1 (1%)0.6%
Chicago Bulls29.40.0%1.9%500/1 (0.2%)--
Detroit Pistons26.20.0%0.0%500/1 (0.2%)--
Washington Wizards31.50.0%7.5%5000/1--
Charlotte Hornets26.90.0%0.1%5000/1--
Atlanta Hawks25.80.0%0.0%5000/1--
New York Knicks25.20.0%0.0%5000/1--
Cleveland Cavaliers22.50.0%0.0%5000/1--

There is a very large 16.8% difference between conference leaders. The LA Clippers at 24.5% trail the LA Lakers at 41.3%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Clippers chances are down from 30.2 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a very small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #5 best record and the team with the #7 best record. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the conference with just 4 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

WEST FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
LA Lakers61.296.1%100.0%7/5 (41.7%)41.3%
LA Clippers54.93.9%100.0%8/5 (38.5%)24.5%
Denver Nuggets54.464.7%100.0%10/1 (9.1%)14.8%
Utah Jazz53.534.4%100.0%15/1 (6.2%)10.4%
Dallas Mavericks47.241.5%98.8%20/1 (4.8%)2.2%
Oklahoma City Thunder47.50.9%99.1%150/1 (0.7%)2.2%
Houston Rockets48.256.4%99.5%7/1 (12.5%)1.9%
Memphis Grizzlies42.02.0%59.6%500/1 (0.2%)1.8%
Portland Trail Blazers40.40.0%28.4%50/1 (2%)0.7%
New Orleans Pelicans38.30.0%9.9%50/1 (2%)0.3%
San Antonio Spurs37.60.0%4.5%500/1 (0.2%)--
Sacramento Kings32.90.0%0.1%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Phoenix Suns32.70.0%0.0%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Minnesota Timberwolves28.10.0%0.0%5000/1--
Golden State Warriors19.30.0%0.0%5000/1--

Below are the latest NBA Futures for winning the Championship. At #2, the Bucks have a 26 percent chance of winning the championship, which is just behind the Lakers. The separation between the team with the #7 highest chances vs the #9 highest is 2 percentage points.

CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
LA Lakers9/430.8%26.7%--
Milwaukee Bucks11/426.7%26.0%DOWN
LA Clippers3/125.0%13.5%DOWN
Toronto Raptors30/13.2%8.6%UP
Denver Nuggets20/14.8%6.1%DOWN
Boston Celtics25/13.8%5.4%DOWN
Utah Jazz30/13.2%4.6%DOWN
Philadelphia 76ers30/13.2%3.3%DOWN
Miami Heat25/13.8%2.6%DOWN