NBA Futures: Do Clippers Have a Legitimate Chance at Winning the West?

There is a small 5% relative difference between the Raptors and the Celtics. The Boston Celtics at 35.6% trail the Toronto Raptors at 37.3%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Celtics chances are down from 37.5 percent. There is a 3.17 difference in projected win total between the #6 best record and the #7 best record in the conference. This is a pretty significant difference even if it does not seem to be at first glance. This is a top heavy conference with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

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EAST FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
Toronto Raptors60.489.3%100.0%7/5 (41.7%)37.3%
Boston Celtics54.010.0%100.0%7/4 (36.4%)35.6%
Milwaukee Bucks50.874.8%99.9%4/1 (20%)10.2%
Philadelphia 76ers49.50.6%99.9%4/1 (20%)7.9%
Indiana Pacers46.719.0%98.5%30/1 (3.2%)4.6%
Detroit Pistons43.86.2%91.3%100/1 (1%)1.7%
Orlando Magic40.650.0%71.7%200/1 (0.5%)1.0%
Miami Heat38.118.5%41.4%200/1 (0.5%)0.8%
Charlotte Hornets38.526.8%50.4%100/1 (1%)0.6%
Brooklyn Nets36.80.0%30.9%400/1 (0.2%)0.2%
Washington Wizards35.14.7%13.9%100/1 (1%)--
New York Knicks31.80.0%2.2%4000/1--
Atlanta Hawks24.20.0%0.0%4000/1--
Cleveland Cavaliers17.90.0%0.0%4000/1--
Chicago Bulls16.60.0%0.0%4000/1--

The relative percentage difference at the top of the conference is large at 113%. The Houston Rockets at 26.1% trail the Golden State Warriors at 55.5%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Rockets chances are down from 33.5 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a very small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #5 best record and the team with the #7 best record. This is a very top heavy conference with just 4 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

WEST FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN CONF ODDSWIN CONF SIM
Golden State Warriors58.097.4%100.0%1/3 (75%)55.5%
Houston Rockets51.397.2%99.1%7/1 (12.5%)26.1%
LA Lakers46.71.2%86.6%10/1 (9.1%)4.7%
Denver Nuggets49.545.7%96.6%50/1 (2%)4.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves44.97.2%72.9%50/1 (2%)3.1%
Oklahoma City Thunder49.440.7%95.9%10/1 (9.1%)2.7%
LA Clippers47.31.4%89.7%40/1 (2.4%)1.8%
Portland Trail Blazers44.34.5%66.1%50/1 (2%)0.9%
Utah Jazz42.11.8%42.3%15/1 (6.2%)0.5%
New Orleans Pelicans40.31.8%23.1%50/1 (2%)0.2%
Dallas Mavericks36.20.1%2.8%100/1 (1%)--
San Antonio Spurs37.30.2%6.1%150/1 (0.7%)--
Memphis Grizzlies38.70.7%13.4%50/1 (2%)--
Sacramento Kings36.90.0%5.3%500/1 (0.2%)--
Phoenix Suns22.40.0%0.0%5000/1--

All playoff teams may think they have a shot at winning the championship, but only 6 really do with at least a two percent chance. At #2, the Raptors have a 19 percent chance of winning the championship, which is 20 percentage points behind the Warriors. The separation between the team with the #4 highest chances vs the #6 highest is 12.8 percentage points.

CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Golden State Warriors1/266.7%39.3%DOWN
Toronto Raptors6/114.3%18.9%--
Boston Celtics8/111.1%15.2%UP
Houston Rockets14/16.7%14.8%DOWN
Milwaukee Bucks16/15.9%2.7%DOWN
Philadelphia 76ers16/15.9%2%.0DOWN
LA Lakers20/14.8%1.7%DOWN
Denver Nuggets40/12.4%1.3%DOWN
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