NBA Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard for Dec 2

Monday, December 02, 2019

Phoenix Suns vs Charlotte Hornets

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Hornets are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Hornets 110 and Suns 108, and Charlotte is winning 56% of the sims. At -173 on the moneyline, the Suns implied probability to win is 63 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Hornets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-0 record. In these games the Hornets averaged 123 points per game and the Suns 113. The computer would set the spread at CHA -2. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening CHA +4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Suns are 5-8-0. As an underdog, the Hornets are 10-9-0. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The Hornets were favored by an average of -6.2 points in these games and they won by an average of 9.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Phoenix Suns225.5114.8108.361%44%113.2 (0 Wins)
Charlotte Hornets+4.0110.7110.339%56%122.8 (4 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Utah Jazz vs Philadelphia 76ers

The odds favor the 76ers, and the sims are solidly on the 76ers as well. The projected score is 76ers 108 and Jazz 104, with Philadelphia winning 61% of the time. The 76ers are -216 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 68 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The 76ers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games the 76ers averaged 108 points per game and the Jazz 99. The computer would set the spread at PHI -4.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the 76ers as the Vegas line has moved from -5 to -5.5. The 76ers have a record of 6-10-0 as a favorite. The Jazz have a record of 15-13-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The 76ers have the ATS edge head to head going 5-0-0 vs the Jazz. The average point spread in these games was Jazz -1 but the 76ers won by an average of 9.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Utah Jazz208101.2103.934%39%98.6 (1 Win)
Philadelphia 76ers-5.5106.8108.566%61%108.4 (4 Wins)

Golden State Warriors vs Atlanta Hawks

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds clearly favor the Hawks. The projected score is Hawks 114 and Warriors 113, and Atlanta is winning 53% of simulations. At -257 on the moneyline, the Hawks implied probability to win is 72 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Warriors have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-0 record. In these games, the Warriors averaged 114 and the Hawks 104 ppg. The projection based point spread is ATL -1. Bettors seem to be favoring the Hawks as the Vegas line has moved from -6 to -6.5. The Hawks have a record of 9-12-0 as a favorite. The Warriors have a record of 10-8-1 as an underdog. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The average point spread in these games was Warriors -11.5 and they won by an average of 10.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Golden State Warriors222107.8113.031%47%114.5 (4 Wins)
Atlanta Hawks-6.5114.2113.569%53%104.2 (0 Wins)

Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds clearly favor the Pacers. The projected score is Pacers 109 and Grizzlies 108, with Indiana being given a 52% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Pacers is -276 which translates to 73 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Pacers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games, the Pacers averaged 112 and the Grizzlies 103 ppg. The projection based point spread is IND -1. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening MEM +6.5. The Pacers have a record of 5-6-2 as a favorite. The Grizzlies have a record of 8-10-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Pacers have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Grizzlies. The average point spread in these games was Pacers -5.5 and they won by an average of 8.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indiana Pacers217111.8108.670%52%112.2 (4 Wins)
Memphis Grizzlies+6.5105.2108.030%48%103.4 (1 Win)

New York Knicks vs Milwaukee Bucks

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Bucks to win the game. The projected score is Bucks 116 and Knicks 101, with Milwaukee winning 82% of the time. The moneyline for the Bucks is -2697 which translates to 96 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Bucks going 7-1. In these games the Bucks averaged 114 points per game and the Knicks 104. The computer would set the spread at MIL -15. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -15.5. The Bucks have a record of 8-11-0 as a favorite. The Knicks have a record of 9-8-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Bucks are 4-3-1 against the spread vs the Knicks. The Bucks were favored by an average of -8 points in these games and they won by an average of 9.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Knicks222.5103.5100.78%18%104.1 (1 Win)
Milwaukee Bucks-15.5119.0115.892%82%113.6 (7 Wins)

Chicago Bulls vs Sacramento Kings

The odds favor the Kings, and the sims are solidly on the Kings as well. The projected score is Kings 113 and Bulls 106, and Sacramento is winning 67% of the sims. At -211 on the moneyline, the Kings implied probability to win is 68 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Kings have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-0 record. In these games the Kings averaged 112 points per game and the Bulls 99. The projection based point spread is SAC -7. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -5. The Kings have a record of 21-11-0 as a favorite. The Bulls have a record of 4-6-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Kings have the ATS edge head to head going 3-0-1 vs the Bulls. The Kings were favored by an average of -2.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 13.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Bulls210102.5106.135%33%98.8 (0 Wins)
Sacramento Kings-5.0107.5113.365%67%112.0 (4 Wins)

Tuesday, December 03, 2019

Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers

The current simulations favor the Pistons, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Pistons 112 and Cavaliers 107, with Detroit being given a 61% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Cavaliers averaged 111 points per game and the Pistons 110. The projection based point spread is DET -5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Cavaliers are 28-53-1. As an underdog, the Pistons are 3-6-1. The Cavaliers have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Pistons. The average point spread in these games was Pistons -1.5 but the Cavaliers won by an average of 1.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Pistons----112.2--61%109.8 (4 Wins)
Cleveland Cavaliers----107.4--39%110.9 (4 Wins)

Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Wizards are favored. The projected score is Wizards 114 and Magic 111, and Washington is winning 58% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Wizards going 6-3. In these games the Wizards averaged 111 points per game and the Magic 106. The computer would set the spread at WAS -3.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Wizards are 21-24-0. As an underdog, the Magic are 33-32-2. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Wizards are 6-3-0 against the spread vs the Magic. The Wizards were favored by an average of -4.3 points in these games and they won by an average of 5.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Orlando Magic----110.8--42%105.9 (3 Wins)
Washington Wizards----114.3--58%111.4 (6 Wins)

Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Mavericks are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Mavericks 124 and Pelicans 117, with Dallas winning 65% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Pelicans going 6-3. In these games the Pelicans averaged 119 points per game and the Mavericks 114. The computer would set the spread at DAL -7. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Pelicans have a record of 17-22-0 as a favorite. The Mavericks have a record of 35-22-1 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Pelicans are 5-4-0 against the spread vs the Mavericks. The Pelicans were favored by an average of -2.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 5.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Mavericks----124.0--65%113.8 (3 Wins)
New Orleans Pelicans----117.1--35%118.9 (6 Wins)

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Raptors are favored. The projected score is Raptors 112 and Heat 98, and Toronto is winning 83% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Raptors going 5-2. In these games the Raptors averaged 112 points per game and the Heat 107. The computer would set the spread at TOR -14.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Raptors have a record of 10-2-0 as a favorite. The Heat have a record of 29-18-1 as an underdog. While they may be 2-5 straight up vs the Raptors, the Heat have been better against the spread. The Heat are 5-2-0 against the spread vs the Raptors. The Raptors were favored by an average of -3.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 5.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Heat----97.9--17%107.1 (2 Wins)
Toronto Raptors----112.4--83%112.3 (5 Wins)

Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Rockets are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Rockets 115 and Spurs 110, and Houston is winning 63% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Rockets going 6-2. In these games, the Rockets averaged 108 and the Spurs 100 ppg. The projection based point spread is HOU -5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Spurs are 3-9-0. As an underdog, the Rockets are 16-9-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Rockets are 5-2-1 against the spread vs the Spurs. The average point spread in these games was Rockets -5 and they won by an average of 7.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Rockets----114.8--63%107.8 (6 Wins)
San Antonio Spurs----110.0--37%100.0 (2 Wins)

LA Lakers vs Denver Nuggets

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently the simulations have these teams in a virtual deadlock. The projected score is Lakers 111 and Nuggets 110, and Los Angeles is winning 50% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In their last 7 matchups the Nuggets are 4-3. In these games the Nuggets averaged 114 points per game and the Lakers 109. If you used the computer projected score to set the line, this would be a pick 'em. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Nuggets are 8-8-1. As an underdog, the Lakers are 18-20-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Nuggets are 4-3-0 against the spread vs the Lakers. The Nuggets were favored by an average of -3.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 5.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
LA Lakers----110.7--50%108.6 (3 Wins)
Denver Nuggets----110.8--50%114.0 (4 Wins)

Portland Trail Blazers vs LA Clippers

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Clippers are favored. The projected score is Clippers 117 and Trail Blazers 110, and Los Angeles is winning 67% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Trail Blazers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-3 record. In these games, the Trail Blazers averaged 112 and the Clippers 106 ppg. The computer would set the spread at LAC -7. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Clippers have a record of 9-8-0 as a favorite. The Trail Blazers have a record of 22-24-1 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Trail Blazers have the ATS edge head to head going 6-3-0 vs the Clippers. The average point spread in these games was Trail Blazers -1.7 and they won by an average of 6.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Portland Trail Blazers----110.3--33%111.9 (6 Wins)
LA Clippers----117.3--67%105.8 (3 Wins)