NBA Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard for Dec 25

Wednesday, December 25, 2019

Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors

The odds favor the Celtics, and the sims are solidly on the Celtics as well. The projected score is Celtics 106 and Raptors 97, with Boston winning 73% of the latest sims. At -161 on the moneyline, the Celtics implied probability to win is 62 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Celtics based on how the moneyline is moving. Head-to-head, the Celtics are 5-4. In these games the Raptors averaged 107 points per game and the Celtics 102. The projection based point spread is BOS -9. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening TOR +3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Celtics are 12-7-1. As an underdog, the Raptors are 3-6-1. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Celtics have the ATS edge head to head going 5-4-0 vs the Raptors. The Raptors were favored by an average of -2.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 4.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Celtics212.5107.8105.860%73%102.4 (5 Wins)
Toronto Raptors+3.0104.796.840%27%106.8 (4 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Milwaukee Bucks vs Philadelphia 76ers

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Bucks. The projected score is Bucks 108 and 76ers 107, with Milwaukee being given a 50% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Bucks is -151 which translates to 60 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Bucks to win. In their last 7 matchups the Bucks are 4-3. In these games the 76ers averaged 116 points per game and the Bucks 113. The computer would set this game as a pick 'em. Bettors seem to be favoring the Bucks as the Vegas line has moved from +2.5 to 3. The Bucks have a record of 17-13-0 as a favorite. The 76ers have a record of 19-16-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Bucks are 4-3-0 against the spread vs the 76ers. The average point spread in these games was Bucks -1 but the 76ers won by an average of 3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Bucks220111.5108.358%50%112.9 (4 Wins)
Philadelphia 76ers+3.0108.5108.442%50%115.9 (3 Wins)

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Rockets to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Rockets 116 and Warriors 107, and Houston is winning 71% of simulations. The Rockets are -708 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 88 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Rockets are 11-10. In these games the Warriors averaged 111 points per game and the Rockets 109. The projection based point spread is HOU -9. More of the action seems to be on the Rockets as the Vegas line has moved from +10 to 11. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rockets are 11-14-0. As an underdog, the Warriors are 13-12-1. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Rockets have the ATS edge head to head going 13-8-0 vs the Warriors. The Warriors were favored by an average of -2.5 points in these games and they won by an average of 1.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Rockets226.5118.8116.084%71%109.2 (11 Wins)
Golden State Warriors+11.0107.7106.816%29%110.7 (10 Wins)

LA Clippers vs LA Lakers

The odds favor the Lakers, and the sims are solidly on the Lakers as well. The projected score is Lakers 112 and Clippers 108, and the Lakers is winning 60% of the sims. The Lakers are -130 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 57 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Lakers to win. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Clippers going 6-3. In these games, the Clippers averaged 114 and the Lakers 110 ppg. The projection based point spread is LAL -4. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -2. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Lakers are 13-13-0. As an underdog, the Clippers are 21-27-2. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Clippers are 6-3-0 against the spread vs the Lakers. The average point spread in these games was Clippers -2.9 and they won by an average of 4.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
LA Clippers222.5110.2107.846%40%114.3 (6 Wins)
LA Lakers-2.0112.3111.654%60%109.7 (3 Wins)

New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Nuggets over the Pelicans. The projected score is Nuggets 117 and Pelicans 103, and Denver is winning 80% of simulations. The moneyline for the Nuggets is -522 which translates to 84 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. Both teams have averaged 116 points in these games. The projection based point spread is DEN -13.5. With more action on the Pelicans, oddsmakers have moved the line from +10 to +9.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Nuggets are 11-13-2. As an underdog, the Pelicans are 9-12-0. The Pelicans are 6-2-0 against the spread vs the Nuggets. The Nuggets were favored by an average of -4.6 points in these games and they won by an average of 0.9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Pelicans218.5104.5103.219%20%115.6 (4 Wins)
Denver Nuggets-9.5114.0116.781%80%116.5 (4 Wins)

Thursday, December 26, 2019

Washington Wizards vs Detroit Pistons

The current simulations favor the Pistons, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Pistons 117 and Wizards 112, and Detroit is winning 63% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. Head-to-head, the Wizards are 3-2. In these games, the Wizards averaged 111 and the Pistons 106 ppg. The computer would set the spread at DET -5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Pistons are 5-7-0. As an underdog, the Wizards are 14-7-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Wizards have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Pistons. The Pistons were favored by an average of -0.8 points in these games but the Wizards won by an average of 4.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Wizards----111.7--37%111.2 (3 Wins)
Detroit Pistons----116.8--63%106.4 (2 Wins)

New York Knicks vs Brooklyn Nets

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Nets are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Nets 120 and Knicks 103, and Brooklyn is winning 85% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 5 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Knicks averaged 108 and the Nets 103 ppg. The projection based point spread is BKN -16.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Nets have a record of 7-8-0 as a favorite. The Knicks have a record of 13-13-0 as an underdog. The Knicks are 8-2-0 against the spread vs the Nets. The Nets were favored by an average of -1.7 points in these games but the Knicks won by an average of 5.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Knicks----103.3--15%108.1 (5 Wins)
Brooklyn Nets----120.0--85%102.9 (5 Wins)

San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks

The current simulations favor the Mavericks, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Mavericks 116 and Spurs 107, with Dallas winning 71% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Spurs have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-2 record. In these games, the Spurs averaged 105 and the Mavericks 102 ppg. The computer would set the spread at DAL -9. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Mavericks have a record of 11-7-0 as a favorite. The Spurs have a record of 4-8-0 as an underdog. While they may be 2-7 straight up in previous matchups, the Mavericks have been better against the spread. The Mavericks have the ATS edge head to head going 7-2-0 vs the Spurs. The average point spread in these games was Spurs -5.2 and they won by an average of 3.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Antonio Spurs----107.2--29%104.9 (7 Wins)
Dallas Mavericks----116.2--71%101.7 (2 Wins)

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Thunder are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Thunder 116 and Grizzlies 108, and Oklahoma City is winning 70% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Thunder have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-1 record. In these games the Thunder averaged 114 points per game and the Grizzlies 107. The computer would set the spread at OKC -8. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Thunder have a record of 5-5-0 as a favorite. The Grizzlies have a record of 13-15-0 as an underdog. While they may be 1-7 straight up vs the Thunder, the Grizzlies have been better against the spread. The Grizzlies have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Thunder. The Thunder were favored by an average of -8.4 points in these games and they won by an average of 7.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Memphis Grizzlies----108.2--30%107.1 (1 Win)
Oklahoma City Thunder----116.3--70%114.4 (7 Wins)

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Sacramento Kings

The current simulations favor the Kings, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Kings 111 and Timberwolves 110, with Sacramento winning 55% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Timberwolves going 5-2. In these games, the Timberwolves averaged 119 and the Kings 111 ppg. The computer would set the spread at SAC -2. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Kings are 4-7-0. As an underdog, the Timberwolves are 7-9-1. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Timberwolves are 4-3-0 against the spread vs the Kings. The average point spread in these games was Timberwolves -6.6 and they won by an average of 8.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Timberwolves----109.5--45%118.9 (5 Wins)
Sacramento Kings----111.3--55%110.6 (2 Wins)

Portland Trail Blazers vs Utah Jazz

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Jazz are favored. The projected score is Jazz 109 and Trail Blazers 105, with Utah winning 59% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Jazz averaged 106 points per game and the Trail Blazers 104. The projection based point spread is UTA -4. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Jazz are 8-12-1. As an underdog, the Trail Blazers are 4-7-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. They both covered the spread 4 times in their last few matchups. The Jazz were favored by an average of -1.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 2.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Portland Trail Blazers----105.3--41%103.5 (4 Wins)
Utah Jazz----109.2--59%105.9 (4 Wins)