NBA Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard for Feb 22

Saturday, February 22, 2020

Sacramento Kings vs LA Clippers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Clippers over the Kings. The projected score is Clippers 123 and Kings 114, and Los Angeles is winning 70% of simulations. The Clippers are -678 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 87 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Clippers going 5-1. In these games the Clippers averaged 118 points per game and the Kings 111. The projection based point spread is LAC -9. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -10.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Clippers are 24-20-0. As an underdog, the Kings are 19-15-1. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Clippers are 5-1-0 against the spread vs the Kings. The Clippers were favored by an average of -4.7 points in these games and they won by an average of 6.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Sacramento Kings227.5108.5114.217%30%111.2 (1 Win)
LA Clippers-10.5119.0123.183%70%117.7 (5 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Brooklyn Nets vs Charlotte Hornets

The odds favor the Nets, and the sims are solidly on the Nets as well. The projected score is Nets 110 and Hornets 102, and Brooklyn is winning 68% of simulations. At -153 on the moneyline, the Nets implied probability to win is 60 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In their last 7 matchups the Nets are 4-3. In these games the Hornets averaged 111 points per game and the Nets 110. The computer would set the spread at BKN -7.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Nets as the Vegas line has moved from +2.5 to 3.5. The Nets have a record of 13-13-0 as a favorite. The Hornets have a record of 24-25-1 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Nets are 4-3-0 against the spread vs the Hornets. The average point spread in these games was Nets -2 but the Hornets won by an average of 1.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Brooklyn Nets212.5108.0109.658%68%110.0 (4 Wins)
Charlotte Hornets+3.5104.5102.142%32%111.1 (3 Wins)

Dallas Mavericks vs Atlanta Hawks

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Mavericks to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Mavericks 124 and Hawks 120, with Dallas being given a 58% chance of winning. At -243 on the moneyline, the Mavericks implied probability to win is 71 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. Head-to-head, the Hawks are 3-2. In these games, the Mavericks averaged 112 and the Hawks 109 ppg. The projection based point spread is DAL -3.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening ATL +6. The Mavericks have a record of 22-16-2 as a favorite. The Hawks have a record of 24-26-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Hawks have the ATS edge head to head going 4-1-0 vs the Mavericks. The average point spread in these games was Mavericks -4.6 and they won by an average of 2.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Mavericks239122.5123.768%58%111.8 (2 Wins)
Atlanta Hawks+6.0116.5120.032%42%109.4 (3 Wins)

Phoenix Suns vs Chicago Bulls

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Suns. The projected score is Suns 109 and Bulls 108, and Phoenix is winning 50% of simulations. At -120 on the moneyline, the Suns implied probability to win is 55 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Bulls averaged 111 points per game and the Suns 108. If you used the computer projected score to set the line, this would be a pick 'em. More of the action seems to be on the Suns as the Vegas line has moved from +1 to 1.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Suns are 7-15-0. As an underdog, the Bulls are 13-16-3. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The average point spread in these games was Suns -1.9 but the Bulls won by an average of 2.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Phoenix Suns219.5110.5108.852%50%108.5 (2 Wins)
Chicago Bulls+1.5109.0108.748%50%111.0 (2 Wins)

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat

The Heat are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Heat 116 and Cavaliers 101, and Miami is winning 82% of simulations. The moneyline for the Heat is -1248 which translates to 93 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Heat have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-2 record. In these games the Heat averaged 109 points per game and the Cavaliers 96. The projection based point spread is MIA -14.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -13.5. The Heat have a record of 21-14-0 as a favorite. The Cavaliers have a record of 24-22-2 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Heat have the ATS edge head to head going 7-2-0 vs the Cavaliers. The Heat were favored by an average of -4.3 points in these games and they won by an average of 12.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cleveland Cavaliers220.5103.5101.011%18%96.1 (2 Wins)
Miami Heat-13.5117.0115.589%82%108.6 (7 Wins)

Philadelphia 76ers vs Milwaukee Bucks

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Bucks over the 76ers. The projected score is Bucks 121 and 76ers 108, with Milwaukee winning 78% of the time. The moneyline for the Bucks is -411 which translates to 80 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. Head-to-head, the Bucks are 3-2. In these games the Bucks averaged 119 points per game and the 76ers 116. The computer would set the spread at MIL -13. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -8.5. The Bucks have a record of 31-22-0 as a favorite. The 76ers have a record of 7-8-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Bucks have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the 76ers. The Bucks were favored by an average of -5.4 points in these games and they won by an average of 3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia 76ers226.5109.0108.223%22%116.4 (2 Wins)
Milwaukee Bucks-8.5117.5121.177%78%119.4 (3 Wins)

Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz

The odds favor the Jazz, and the sims are solidly on the Jazz as well. The projected score is Jazz 116 and Rockets 108, with Utah winning 70% of the time. The moneyline for the Jazz is -131 which translates to 57 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Rockets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-4 record. In these games, the Rockets averaged 107 and the Jazz 103 ppg. The computer would set the spread at UTA -8. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -2. The Jazz have a record of 21-21-2 as a favorite. The Rockets have a record of 20-11-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Rockets have the ATS edge head to head going 6-5-0 vs the Jazz. The average point spread in these games was Rockets -0.7 and they won by an average of 4.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Rockets235116.5108.546%30%107.4 (7 Wins)
Utah Jazz-2.0118.5116.554%70%103.0 (4 Wins)

Sunday, February 23, 2020

Boston Celtics vs LA Lakers

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Lakers are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Lakers 108 and Celtics 104, with Los Angeles winning 60% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. Head-to-head, the Celtics are 3-2. In these games, the Celtics averaged 120 and the Lakers 109 ppg. The projection based point spread is LAL -4.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Lakers are 23-23-1. As an underdog, the Celtics are 11-5-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Celtics have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Lakers. The average point spread in these games was Celtics -5 and they won by an average of 10.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Celtics----104.0--40%120.2 (3 Wins)
LA Lakers----108.4--60%109.4 (2 Wins)

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Nuggets are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Nuggets 122 and Timberwolves 100, and Denver is winning 92% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Nuggets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-0 record. In these games the Nuggets averaged 108 points per game and the Timberwolves 101. The computer would set the spread at DEN -22.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Nuggets are 18-19-3. As an underdog, the Timberwolves are 13-20-1. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Nuggets have the ATS edge head to head going 4-3-0 vs the Timberwolves. The Nuggets were favored by an average of -4.5 points in these games and they won by an average of 7.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Timberwolves----99.5--8%101.0 (0 Wins)
Denver Nuggets----122.2--92%108.3 (7 Wins)

Indiana Pacers vs Toronto Raptors

The current simulations favor the Raptors, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Raptors 111 and Pacers 104, and Toronto is winning 66% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Raptors have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2. In these games the Raptors averaged 112 points per game and the Pacers 109. The computer would set the spread at TOR -7. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Raptors are 24-16-0. As an underdog, the Pacers are 7-7-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Raptors are 3-2-1 against the spread vs the Pacers. The average point spread in these games was Pacers -0.2 but the Raptors won by an average of 3.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indiana Pacers----104.5--34%109.2 (2 Wins)
Toronto Raptors----111.4--66%112.5 (4 Wins)

Washington Wizards vs Chicago Bulls

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Bulls are favored. The projected score is Bulls 118 and Wizards 110, and Chicago is winning 67% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Bulls have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-2 record. In these games the Bulls averaged 115 points per game and the Wizards 114. The projection based point spread is CHI -7. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Bulls are 9-13-0. As an underdog, the Wizards are 23-18-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Bulls have the ATS edge head to head going 5-2-0 vs the Wizards. The average point spread in these games was Wizards -2.7 but the Bulls won by an average of 0.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Wizards----110.3--33%114.4 (2 Wins)
Chicago Bulls----117.5--67%115.1 (5 Wins)

San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Thunder are favored. The projected score is Thunder 115 and Spurs 111, with Oklahoma City winning 60% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Spurs are up in this matchup recently going 4-2. In these games, the Spurs averaged 120 and the Thunder 116 ppg. The projection based point spread is OKC -4.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Thunder are 13-11-0. As an underdog, the Spurs are 17-13-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Spurs have the ATS edge head to head going 4-2-0 vs the Thunder. The Thunder were favored by an average of -0.5 points in these games but the Spurs won by an average of 3.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Antonio Spurs----111.0--40%120.0 (4 Wins)
Oklahoma City Thunder----115.3--60%116.3 (2 Wins)

New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Pelicans are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Pelicans 117 and Warriors 108, with New Orleans winning 71% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Warriors have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-1 record. In these games the Warriors averaged 122 points per game and the Pelicans 116. The computer would set the spread at NO -9. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Warriors have a record of 37-57-2 as a favorite. The Pelicans have a record of 17-15-1 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Warriors have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-1 vs the Pelicans. The Warriors were favored by an average of -2.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 5.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Pelicans----117.3--71%116.2 (1 Win)
Golden State Warriors----108.3--29%121.7 (5 Wins)

Detroit Pistons vs Portland Trail Blazers

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Trail Blazers are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Trail Blazers 112 and Pistons 108, and Portland is winning 60% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Pistons averaged 102 and the Trail Blazers 100 ppg. The computer would set the spread at POR -4.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Trail Blazers have a record of 13-15-1 as a favorite. The Pistons have a record of 12-23-1 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Pistons have the ATS edge head to head going 2-1-1 vs the Trail Blazers. The Trail Blazers were favored by an average of -1.5 points in these games but the Pistons won by an average of 2.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Pistons----107.8--40%102.2 (2 Wins)
Portland Trail Blazers----112.2--60%99.5 (2 Wins)