NBA Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard for Feb 24

Monday, February 24, 2020

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers

The Heat are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Heat 114 and Cavaliers 108, with Miami being given a 64% chance of winning. At -261 on the moneyline, the Heat implied probability to win is 72 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Heat have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-0 record. In these games, the Heat averaged 117 and the Cavaliers 99 ppg. The computer would set the spread at MIA -5.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening CLE +6. The Heat have a record of 22-14-0 as a favorite. The Cavaliers have a record of 24-23-2 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Heat have the ATS edge head to head going 6-1-0 vs the Cavaliers. The average point spread in these games was Heat -8.6 and they won by an average of 17.9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Heat220.5113.2113.569%64%116.7 (7 Wins)
Cleveland Cavaliers+6.0107.3107.931%36%98.9 (0 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the 76ers to win the game. The projected score is 76ers 117 and Hawks 103, and Philadelphia is winning 84% of the sims. At -400 on the moneyline, the 76ers implied probability to win is 80 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Hawks based on how the moneyline is moving. The Hawks are up in this matchup recently going 4-2. In these games the 76ers averaged 118 points per game and the Hawks 117. The computer would set the spread at PHI -14.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the 76ers as the Vegas line has moved from -8 to -8.5. The 76ers have a record of 17-23-0 as a favorite. The Hawks have a record of 24-26-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Hawks have the ATS edge head to head going 5-1-0 vs the 76ers. The 76ers were favored by an average of -7.7 points in these games and they won by an average of 0.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Hawks227.5109.5102.923%16%117.3 (4 Wins)
Philadelphia 76ers-8.5118.0117.477%84%117.5 (2 Wins)

Milwaukee Bucks vs Washington Wizards

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Bucks to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Bucks 126 and Wizards 116, and Milwaukee is winning 73% of simulations. At -1085 on the moneyline, the Bucks implied probability to win is 92 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Bucks are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. In these games, the Bucks averaged 118 and the Wizards 112 ppg. The computer would set the spread at MIL -9.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening WAS +12.5. The Bucks have a record of 32-22-0 as a favorite. The Wizards have a record of 23-18-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Bucks have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Wizards. The average point spread in these games was Bucks -3.6 and they won by an average of 6.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Bucks240.5126.5125.788%73%117.8 (5 Wins)
Washington Wizards+12.5114.0116.112%27%111.5 (3 Wins)

Orlando Magic vs Brooklyn Nets

The odds favor the Nets, and the sims are solidly on the Nets as well. The projected score is Nets 107 and Magic 103, and Brooklyn is winning 60% of simulations. The Nets are -152 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Nets are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. In these games, the Magic averaged 109 and the Nets 108 ppg. The projection based point spread is BKN -4.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3. The Nets have a record of 14-13-0 as a favorite. The Magic have a record of 8-19-2 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Nets have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Magic. The average point spread in these games was Magic -0.5 and they won by an average of 1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Orlando Magic212.5104.8103.042%40%109.1 (3 Wins)
Brooklyn Nets-3.0107.7107.458%60%108.1 (5 Wins)

New York Knicks vs Houston Rockets

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Rockets over the Knicks. The projected score is Rockets 120 and Knicks 107, with Houston winning 78% of the time. The Rockets are -1373 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 93 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Rockets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-0 record. In these games the Rockets averaged 118 points per game and the Knicks 101. The projection based point spread is HOU -13. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -14. The Rockets have a record of 21-25-0 as a favorite. The Knicks have a record of 22-22-1 as an underdog. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The Rockets were favored by an average of -12.5 points in these games and they won by an average of 16.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Knicks229.5107.8107.011%22%101.2 (0 Wins)
Houston Rockets-14.0121.7119.989%78%117.5 (4 Wins)

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Mavericks to win the game. The projected score is Mavericks 119 and Timberwolves 102, and Dallas is winning 85% of simulations. The Mavericks are -1092 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 92 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Timberwolves have the recent head-to-head edge going 5-3. In these games, the Timberwolves averaged 111 and the Mavericks 107 ppg. The projection based point spread is DAL -17. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -12.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Mavericks are 22-16-2. As an underdog, the Timberwolves are 14-20-1. While they may be 3-5 straight up in previous matchups, the Mavericks have been better against the spread. The Mavericks are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Timberwolves. The average point spread in these games was Timberwolves -3.3 and they won by an average of 3.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Timberwolves230.5109.0101.912%15%111.0 (5 Wins)
Dallas Mavericks-12.5121.5118.988%85%107.2 (3 Wins)

Phoenix Suns vs Utah Jazz

The Jazz are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Jazz 116 and Suns 105, with Utah winning 76% of the time. At -360 on the moneyline, the Jazz implied probability to win is 78 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Jazz going 8-1. In these games the Jazz averaged 112 points per game and the Suns 94. The computer would set the spread at UTA -12. Bettors seem to be favoring the Jazz as the Vegas line has moved from -7.5 to -8. The Jazz have a record of 21-22-2 as a favorite. The Suns have a record of 18-15-1 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Jazz are 6-3-0 against the spread vs the Suns. The Jazz were favored by an average of -10.2 points in these games and they won by an average of 17.9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Phoenix Suns223.5107.8104.625%24%94.2 (1 Win)
Utah Jazz-8.0115.7116.575%76%112.1 (8 Wins)

Memphis Grizzlies vs LA Clippers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Clippers over the Grizzlies. The projected score is Clippers 121 and Grizzlies 112, and Los Angeles is winning 71% of simulations. The moneyline for the Clippers is -521 which translates to 84 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Clippers based on how the moneyline is moving. The Clippers are up in this matchup recently going 4-2. In these games, the Grizzlies averaged 111 and the Clippers 110 ppg. The computer would set the spread at LAC -9. More of the action seems to be on the Clippers with the Vegas line moving from -9 to -9.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Clippers are 24-21-0. As an underdog, the Grizzlies are 18-20-1. Both have covered 3 times head-to-head. The Clippers were favored by an average of -5.2 points in these games but the Grizzlies won by an average of 1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Memphis Grizzlies233.5112.0112.220%29%110.7 (2 Wins)
LA Clippers-9.5121.5121.180%71%109.7 (4 Wins)

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Charlotte Hornets vs Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Pacers 109 and Hornets 102, with Indiana winning 68% of the time. The Pacers are -800 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 89 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Pacers are up in this matchup recently going 4-2. In these games the Pacers averaged 112 points per game and the Hornets 104. The computer would set the spread at IND -7. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -11.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Pacers are 21-17-4. As an underdog, the Hornets are 24-26-1. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Pacers have the ATS edge head to head going 4-2-0 vs the Hornets. The Pacers were favored by an average of -5 points in these games and they won by an average of 7.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Charlotte Hornets209.599.0101.615%32%103.8 (2 Wins)
Indiana Pacers-11.5110.5108.885%68%111.7 (4 Wins)

Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Raptors are slightly favored. The projected score is Raptors 110 and Bucks 108, and Toronto is winning 52% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 7 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Bucks averaged 112 and the Raptors 111 ppg. The computer would set the spread at TOR -1.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Raptors have a record of 25-16-0 as a favorite. The Bucks have a record of 10-5-0 as an underdog. The Bucks have the ATS edge head to head going 8-6-0 vs the Raptors. The average point spread in these games was Bucks -0.7 and they won by an average of 0.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Bucks----108.1--48%111.6 (7 Wins)
Toronto Raptors----109.5--52%110.9 (7 Wins)

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Chicago Bulls

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Thunder are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Thunder 110 and Bulls 107, and Oklahoma City is winning 56% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Thunder have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games, the Thunder averaged 107 and the Bulls 93 ppg. The projection based point spread is OKC -2.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Bulls have a record of 9-13-0 as a favorite. The Thunder have a record of 23-8-0 as an underdog. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head with one push. The average point spread in these games was Thunder -9.5 and they won by an average of 14.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Oklahoma City Thunder----109.5--56%107.0 (4 Wins)
Chicago Bulls----107.0--44%92.8 (1 Win)

Detroit Pistons vs Denver Nuggets

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Nuggets are favored. The projected score is Nuggets 117 and Pistons 104, and Denver is winning 81% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In their last 5 matchups the Nuggets are 3-2. Both teams have averaged 109 points in these games. The projection based point spread is DEN -13. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Nuggets have a record of 18-20-3 as a favorite. The Pistons have a record of 13-23-1 as an underdog. The Pistons have been better against the spread than straight up vs the Nuggets. The Pistons are 4-1-0 against the spread vs the Nuggets. The Nuggets were favored by an average of -2.8 points in these games but the Pistons won by an average of 0.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Pistons----103.6--19%109.2 (2 Wins)
Denver Nuggets----116.8--81%108.8 (3 Wins)

New Orleans Pelicans vs LA Lakers

The current simulations favor the Lakers, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Lakers 116 and Pelicans 110, and Los Angeles is winning 65% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. Head-to-head, the Lakers are 5-4. In these games the Lakers averaged 119 points per game and the Pelicans 118. The projection based point spread is LAL -5.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Lakers are 23-24-1. As an underdog, the Pelicans are 17-15-1. The Pelicans have been better against the spread than straight up vs the Lakers. The Pelicans have the ATS edge head to head going 6-2-1 vs the Lakers. The Lakers were favored by an average of -2 points in these games and they won by an average of 1.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Pelicans----110.4--35%118.0 (4 Wins)
LA Lakers----116.0--65%119.2 (5 Wins)

Boston Celtics vs Portland Trail Blazers

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Celtics are favored. The projected score is Celtics 109 and Trail Blazers 104, and Boston is winning 60% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Trail Blazers averaged 98 points per game and the Celtics 97. The projection based point spread is BOS -4.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Trail Blazers are 13-16-1. As an underdog, the Celtics are 12-5-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The Trail Blazers were favored by an average of -2.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 1.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Celtics----109.0--60%97.0 (2 Wins)
Portland Trail Blazers----104.4--40%98.2 (2 Wins)

Sacramento Kings vs Golden State Warriors

The current simulations favor the Kings, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Kings 110 and Warriors 107, and Sacramento is winning 60% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Warriors have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2. In these games, the Kings averaged 116 and the Warriors 113 ppg. The projection based point spread is SAC -3.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Warriors are 37-57-2. As an underdog, the Kings are 20-15-1. While they may be 2-4 straight up vs the Warriors, the Kings have been better against the spread. The Kings are 6-0-0 against the spread vs the Warriors. The Warriors were favored by an average of -3.2 points in these games but the Kings won by an average of 3.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Sacramento Kings----110.0--60%116.3 (2 Wins)
Golden State Warriors----106.6--40%112.7 (4 Wins)