NBA Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard for Jan 14

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Phoenix Suns vs Atlanta Hawks

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Suns. The projected score is Suns 117 and Hawks 115, and Phoenix is winning 53% of simulations. At -174 on the moneyline, the Suns implied probability to win is 64 percent. The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Suns to win. Head-to-head, the Hawks are 3-2. In these games, the Suns averaged 114 and the Hawks 113 ppg. The computer would set the spread at PHO -1.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Suns as the Vegas line has moved from +3 to 4. The Suns have a record of 6-11-0 as a favorite. The Hawks have a record of 16-20-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head with one push. The average point spread in these games was Suns -1.2 and they won by an average of 0.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Phoenix Suns225114.5116.861%53%113.6 (2 Wins)
Atlanta Hawks+4.0110.5115.339%47%113.2 (3 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Utah Jazz vs Brooklyn Nets

The odds favor the Jazz, and the sims are solidly on the Jazz as well. The projected score is Jazz 116 and Nets 112, with Utah winning 59% of the latest sims. The moneyline for the Jazz is -116 which translates to 54 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Jazz have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games, the Jazz averaged 111 and the Nets 105 ppg. The projection based point spread is UTA -4. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening BKN +1. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Jazz are 15-13-1. As an underdog, the Nets are 10-8-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Jazz have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Nets. The average point spread in these games was Jazz -4.8 and they won by an average of 5.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Utah Jazz217.5109.2115.751%59%111.0 (4 Wins)
Brooklyn Nets+1.0108.3111.849%41%105.4 (1 Win)

Houston Rockets vs Memphis Grizzlies

The odds favor the Rockets, and the sims are solidly on the Rockets as well. The projected score is Rockets 123 and Grizzlies 117, with Houston being given a 63% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Rockets is -194 which translates to 66 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Rockets going 6-3. In these games, the Rockets averaged 106 and the Grizzlies 100 ppg. The computer would set the spread at HOU -5.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening MEM +4.5. The Rockets have a record of 15-17-0 as a favorite. The Grizzlies have a record of 16-16-1 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Rockets are 6-3-0 against the spread vs the Grizzlies. The average point spread in these games was Rockets -4.7 and they won by an average of 6.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Rockets238121.2122.764%63%106.3 (6 Wins)
Memphis Grizzlies+4.5116.8117.236%37%99.8 (3 Wins)

New York Knicks vs Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Bucks 117 and Knicks 98, and Milwaukee is winning 87% of simulations. The Bucks are -2619 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 96 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Bucks have been dominating this matchup recently with a 9-1 record. In these games the Bucks averaged 116 points per game and the Knicks 102. The computer would set the spread at MIL -18.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -16.5. The Bucks have a record of 22-18-0 as a favorite. The Knicks have a record of 17-17-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Bucks have the ATS edge head to head going 6-3-1 vs the Knicks. The Bucks were favored by an average of -9.4 points in these games and they won by an average of 14.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Knicks225.5104.598.18%13%102.3 (1 Win)
Milwaukee Bucks-16.5121.0116.692%87%116.4 (9 Wins)

Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Mavericks to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Mavericks 112 and Warriors 100, and Dallas is winning 77% of simulations. At -407 on the moneyline, the Mavericks implied probability to win is 80 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Mavericks have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2. In these games, the Mavericks averaged 125 and the Warriors 109 ppg. The computer would set the spread at DAL -12. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening GS +8.5. The Mavericks have a record of 14-12-1 as a favorite. The Warriors have a record of 18-17-1 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Mavericks are 6-0-0 against the spread vs the Warriors. The Warriors were favored by an average of -1.5 points in these games but the Mavericks won by an average of 16.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Mavericks223.5116.0112.177%77%125.2 (4 Wins)
Golden State Warriors+8.5107.5100.023%23%109.0 (2 Wins)

Cleveland Cavaliers vs LA Clippers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Clippers to win the game. The projected score is Clippers 125 and Cavaliers 109, and Los Angeles is winning 84% of simulations. At -1818 on the moneyline, the Clippers implied probability to win is 95 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Clippers have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games the Clippers averaged 118 points per game and the Cavaliers 109. The projection based point spread is LAC -16. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -14.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Clippers are 17-15-0. As an underdog, the Cavaliers are 17-17-2. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Clippers are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Cavaliers. The Clippers were favored by an average of -1.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 8.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cleveland Cavaliers222.5104.0109.29%16%109.0 (1 Win)
LA Clippers-14.5118.5125.191%84%117.8 (3 Wins)

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Detroit Pistons vs Boston Celtics

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Celtics are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Celtics 111 and Pistons 107, and Boston is winning 59% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Celtics going 6-2. In these games the Celtics averaged 108 points per game and the Pistons 101. The projection based point spread is BOS -4. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Celtics are 16-12-1. As an underdog, the Pistons are 6-15-1. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Celtics are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Pistons. The Celtics were favored by an average of -4.6 points in these games and they won by an average of 6.9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Pistons----106.8--41%100.9 (2 Wins)
Boston Celtics----111.0--59%107.8 (6 Wins)

Brooklyn Nets vs Philadelphia 76ers

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the 76ers are favored. The projected score is 76ers 116 and Nets 104, and Philadelphia is winning 78% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The 76ers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 9-5 record. In these games the 76ers averaged 117 points per game and the Nets 112. The computer would set the spread at PHI -12.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The 76ers have a record of 12-18-0 as a favorite. The Nets have a record of 10-8-0 as an underdog. Both have covered 7 times head-to-head. The 76ers were favored by an average of -6.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 4.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Brooklyn Nets----103.5--22%112.4 (5 Wins)
Philadelphia 76ers----115.8--78%117.2 (9 Wins)

San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Heat are favored. The projected score is Heat 117 and Spurs 107, and Miami is winning 74% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Spurs averaged 107 and the Heat 102 ppg. The computer would set the spread at MIA -10. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Heat have a record of 14-10-0 as a favorite. The Spurs have a record of 9-8-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. They both covered the spread 2 times in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Spurs -3.8 and they won by an average of 4.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Antonio Spurs----107.2--26%106.8 (2 Wins)
Miami Heat----117.4--74%102.5 (2 Wins)

Washington Wizards vs Chicago Bulls

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Wizards are slightly favored. The projected score is Wizards 111 and Bulls 110, with Washington winning 52% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Bulls have the recent head-to-head edge going 5-3. In these games the Bulls averaged 111 points per game and the Wizards 110. The projection based point spread is WAS -1. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Bulls are 7-9-0. As an underdog, the Wizards are 18-13-0. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Bulls are 6-2-0 against the spread vs the Wizards. The average point spread in these games was Wizards -5.1 but the Bulls won by an average of 1.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Wizards----111.4--52%109.8 (3 Wins)
Chicago Bulls----110.7--48%111.2 (5 Wins)

Indiana Pacers vs Minnesota Timberwolves

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Pacers are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Pacers 123 and Timberwolves 114, and Indiana is winning 68% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. Both teams have averaged 108 points in these games. The projection based point spread is IND -8. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Timberwolves are 5-9-1. As an underdog, the Pacers are 6-5-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. They both covered the spread 2 times in their last few matchups. The Timberwolves were favored by an average of -3 points in these games but the Pacers won by an average of 0.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indiana Pacers----122.6--68%108.2 (2 Wins)
Minnesota Timberwolves----114.5--32%107.5 (2 Wins)

Toronto Raptors vs Oklahoma City Thunder

The current simulations slightly favor the Raptors, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Raptors 107 and Thunder 106, with Toronto being given a 51% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Thunder going 4-1. In these games the Thunder averaged 117 points per game and the Raptors 112. The projection based point spread is TOR -1. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Thunder are 8-7-0. As an underdog, the Raptors are 5-8-1. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Thunder are 4-1-0 against the spread vs the Raptors. The average point spread in these games was Raptors -0.9 but the Thunder won by an average of 4.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Raptors----107.2--51%112.2 (1 Win)
Oklahoma City Thunder----106.7--49%116.8 (4 Wins)

Charlotte Hornets vs Denver Nuggets

The current simulations favor the Nuggets, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Nuggets 115 and Hornets 101, and Denver is winning 82% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Nuggets averaged 111 points per game and the Hornets 109. The computer would set the spread at DEN -14. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Nuggets are 13-17-3. As an underdog, the Hornets are 20-18-1. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The Nuggets were favored by an average of -3.6 points in these games and they won by an average of 1.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Charlotte Hornets----100.7--18%109.2 (2 Wins)
Denver Nuggets----114.9--82%111.0 (2 Wins)

Portland Trail Blazers vs Houston Rockets

The current simulations favor the Rockets, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Rockets 123 and Trail Blazers 114, and Houston is winning 70% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Rockets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-2 record. In these games the Rockets averaged 111 points per game and the Trail Blazers 107. The projection based point spread is HOU -8.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rockets are 15-17-0. As an underdog, the Trail Blazers are 5-11-0. While they may be 2-6 straight up vs the Rockets, the Trail Blazers have been better against the spread. The Trail Blazers have the ATS edge head to head going 4-3-1 vs the Rockets. The Rockets were favored by an average of -6.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 3.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Portland Trail Blazers----114.0--30%107.4 (2 Wins)
Houston Rockets----122.7--70%110.6 (6 Wins)

Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Mavericks are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Mavericks 111 and Kings 104, with Dallas being given a 68% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Kings have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-2 record. In these games the Kings averaged 109 points per game and the Mavericks 106. The computer would set the spread at DAL -7.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Kings are 6-11-0. As an underdog, the Mavericks are 6-5-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Kings have the ATS edge head to head going 6-2-0 vs the Mavericks. The average point spread in these games was Mavericks -2.2 but the Kings won by an average of 3.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Mavericks----111.4--68%105.8 (2 Wins)
Sacramento Kings----103.9--32%109.2 (6 Wins)

Orlando Magic vs LA Lakers

The current simulations favor the Lakers, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Lakers 114 and Magic 97, and Los Angeles is winning 84% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In their last 5 matchups the Magic are 3-2. In these games, the Magic averaged 112 and the Lakers 106 ppg. The computer would set the spread at LAL -17. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Lakers are 17-16-1. As an underdog, the Magic are 7-12-2. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Magic are 4-1-0 against the spread vs the Lakers. The Lakers were favored by an average of -5.9 points in these games but the Magic won by an average of 5.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Orlando Magic----97.2--16%111.8 (3 Wins)
LA Lakers----114.0--84%106.0 (2 Wins)