NBA Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard for Jul 30

Thursday, July 30, 2020

Utah Jazz vs New Orleans Pelicans

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Jazz as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Jazz 114 and Pelicans 113, with Utah being given a 51% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Pelicans is -150 which translates to 60 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Pelicans to win. The Jazz have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2. In these games, the Jazz averaged 124 and the Pelicans 119 ppg. If you used the computer projected score to set the line, this would be a pick 'em. Bettors seem to be favoring the Jazz with the Vegas moving from +2.5 to +1.5. The Pelicans have a record of 15-11-1 as a favorite. The Jazz have a record of 7-5-0 as an underdog. They both covered the spread 3 times in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Jazz -5.4 and they won by an average of 5.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Utah Jazz220.5109.5113.742%51%124.3 (4 Wins)
New Orleans Pelicans-1.5111.0113.658%49%119.0 (2 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

LA Clippers vs LA Lakers

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Clippers are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Clippers 112 and Lakers 111, with the Lakers winning 49% of the time. The moneyline for the Lakers is -114 which translates to 53 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Head-to-head, the Clippers are 4-3. In these games, the Clippers averaged 113 and the Lakers 111 ppg. The computer would set the spread at LAC -1. Bettors seem to be favoring the Lakers as the Vegas line has moved from -1 to -1.5. The Lakers have a record of 27-26-1 as a favorite. The Clippers have a record of 23-28-2 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Clippers have the ATS edge head to head going 4-3-0 vs the Lakers. The average point spread in these games was Clippers -1.4 and they won by an average of 2.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
LA Clippers217.5108.0111.949%51%113.4 (4 Wins)
LA Lakers-1.5109.5111.051%49%111.0 (3 Wins)

Friday, July 31, 2020

Orlando Magic vs Brooklyn Nets

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Magic over the Nets despite being on the road. The projected score is Magic 110 and Nets 102, with Orlando being given a 70% chance of winning. The Magic are -238 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 70 percent. People are betting more heavily on the Magic based on how the moneyline is moving. Head-to-head, the Magic are 3-2. In these games, the Magic averaged 109 and the Nets 104 ppg. The projection based point spread is ORL -8. More of the action seems to be on the Magic as the Vegas line has moved from +2 to 6. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Magic are 15-13-0. As an underdog, the Nets are 16-15-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Magic have the ATS edge head to head going 4-1-0 vs the Nets. The average point spread in these games was Magic -0.4 and they won by an average of 4.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Orlando Magic211.5108.8110.367%70%108.6 (3 Wins)
Brooklyn Nets+6.0102.7102.233%30%104.4 (2 Wins)

Memphis Grizzlies vs Portland Trail Blazers

The odds favor the Trail Blazers, and the sims are solidly on the Trail Blazers as well. The projected score is Trail Blazers 111 and Grizzlies 109, and Portland is winning 55% of simulations. At -125 on the moneyline, the Trail Blazers implied probability to win is 56 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In their last 9 matchups the Grizzlies are 5-4. In these games the Trail Blazers averaged 103 points per game and the Grizzlies 100. The projection based point spread is POR -2. The Trail Blazers have a record of 15-18-1 as a favorite. The Grizzlies have a record of 21-23-1 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Grizzlies are 5-3-1 against the spread vs the Trail Blazers. The Trail Blazers were favored by an average of -4.3 points in these games and they won by an average of 2.9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Memphis Grizzlies222.5110.5109.347%45%100.0 (5 Wins)
Portland Trail Blazers-1.5112.0111.353%55%102.9 (4 Wins)

Phoenix Suns vs Washington Wizards

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Suns to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Suns 119 and Wizards 108, with Phoenix winning 74% of the latest sims. The Suns are -308 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 75 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Suns since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The Wizards have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games the Wizards averaged 128 points per game and the Suns 124. The computer would set the spread at PHO -10.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Suns as the Vegas line has moved from +3.5 to 7.5. The Suns have a record of 8-17-0 as a favorite. The Wizards have a record of 26-21-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Wizards have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Suns. The Wizards were favored by an average of -3.4 points in these games and they won by an average of 3.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Phoenix Suns225.5116.5118.772%74%124.0 (1 Win)
Washington Wizards+7.5109.0108.228%26%127.6 (4 Wins)

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks

The odds favor the Bucks, and the sims are solidly on the Bucks as well. The projected score is Bucks 113 and Celtics 105, and Milwaukee is winning 69% of the sims. At -199 on the moneyline, the Bucks implied probability to win is 67 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Bucks going 7-3. In these games the Bucks averaged 113 points per game and the Celtics 108. The projection based point spread is MIL -8. With more action on the Celtics, oddsmakers have moved the line from +5 to +4.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Bucks are 34-26-0. As an underdog, the Celtics are 13-5-0. They both covered the spread 5 times in their last few matchups. The Bucks were favored by an average of -4.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 4.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Celtics215.5105.5105.036%31%108.2 (3 Wins)
Milwaukee Bucks-4.5110.0113.164%69%112.9 (7 Wins)

Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs

The odds favor the Kings, and the sims are solidly on the Kings as well. The projected score is Kings 115 and Spurs 110, with Sacramento winning 63% of the latest sims. The Kings are -137 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 58 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Kings going 4-1. In these games, the Kings averaged 114 and the Spurs 105 ppg. The computer would set the spread at SAC -5.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening SA +2.5. The Kings have a record of 10-14-0 as a favorite. The Spurs have a record of 18-17-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Kings are 5-0-0 against the spread vs the Spurs. The Spurs were favored by an average of -4.3 points in these games but the Kings won by an average of 9.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Sacramento Kings215108.8115.256%63%114.0 (4 Wins)
San Antonio Spurs+2.5106.2109.644%37%104.8 (1 Win)

Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Mavericks. The projected score is Mavericks 114 and Rockets 112, and Dallas is winning 54% of the sims. The Mavericks are -125 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 56 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have 3 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Mavericks averaged 115 points per game and the Rockets 113. The computer would set the spread at DAL -2. The Mavericks are 5-1-0 against the spread vs the Rockets. The average point spread in these games was Rockets -6.9 but the Mavericks won by an average of 2.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Rockets225.5112.8112.447%46%112.8 (3 Wins)
Dallas MavericksPK112.7114.353%54%115.0 (3 Wins)