NBA Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard for Nov 22

Friday, November 22, 2019

Atlanta Hawks vs Detroit Pistons

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Pistons to win the game. The projected score is Pistons 112 and Hawks 101, and Detroit is winning 77% of simulations. The Pistons are -255 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 72 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Pistons are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. In these games the Pistons averaged 110 points per game and the Hawks 107. The computer would set the spread at DET -11.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -6.5. The Pistons have a record of 23-19-0 as a favorite. The Hawks have a record of 6-7-0 as an underdog. The Hawks have been better against the spread than straight up vs the Pistons. The Hawks have the ATS edge head to head going 6-2-0 vs the Pistons. The Pistons were favored by an average of -5.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 2.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Atlanta Hawks225109.2100.831%23%107.1 (3 Wins)
Detroit Pistons-6.5115.8112.269%77%109.9 (5 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Charlotte Hornets vs Washington Wizards

The odds and our simulations favor the Wizards over the Hornets. The projected score is Wizards 118 and Hornets 113, with Washington winning 60% of the time. At -242 on the moneyline, the Wizards implied probability to win is 71 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Hornets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-2 record. In these games, the Hornets averaged 119 and the Wizards 113 ppg. The projection based point spread is WAS -4.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -6. The Wizards have a record of 20-23-0 as a favorite. The Hornets have a record of 7-6-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Hornets have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Wizards. The average point spread in these games was Hornets -0.6 and they won by an average of 6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Charlotte Hornets233113.5113.332%40%119.2 (6 Wins)
Washington Wizards-6.0119.5117.668%60%113.2 (2 Wins)

Sacramento Kings vs Brooklyn Nets

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Kings are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Kings 122 and Nets 119, with Sacramento being given a 55% chance of winning. At -161 on the moneyline, the Nets implied probability to win is 62 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Nets averaged 114 points per game and the Kings 109. The computer would set the spread at SAC -2.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3.5. The Nets have a record of 18-18-0 as a favorite. The Kings have a record of 32-29-2 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. They both covered the spread 2 times in their last few matchups. The Nets were favored by an average of -2 points in these games and they won by an average of 5.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Sacramento Kings--118.9121.941%55%108.8 (2 Wins)
Brooklyn Nets-3.5122.3119.459%45%114.0 (2 Wins)

Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls

The odds favor the Heat, and the sims are solidly on the Heat as well. The projected score is Heat 110 and Bulls 100, and Miami is winning 74% of simulations. At -187 on the moneyline, the Heat implied probability to win is 65 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Heat have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-2 record. In these games, the Heat averaged 103 and the Bulls 100 ppg. The projection based point spread is MIA -11. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening CHI +4.5. The Heat have a record of 24-24-1 as a favorite. The Bulls have a record of 36-45-1 as an underdog. While they may be 2-5 straight up in previous matchups, the Bulls have been better against the spread. The Bulls have the ATS edge head to head going 5-2-0 vs the Heat. The average point spread in these games was Heat -6.7 and they won by an average of 3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Heat214.5109.5110.463%74%102.9 (5 Wins)
Chicago Bulls+4.5105.099.537%26%99.9 (2 Wins)

San Antonio Spurs vs Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is 76ers 116 and Spurs 104, with Philadelphia winning 78% of the time. The 76ers are -321 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 76 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The 76ers have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. Both teams have averaged 107 points in these games. The projection based point spread is PHI -12. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -7.5. The 76ers have a record of 4-6-0 as a favorite. The Spurs have a record of 21-20-1 as an underdog. They both covered the spread 2 times in their last few matchups. The 76ers were favored by an average of -0.6 points in these games and the average margin of victory was zero points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Antonio Spurs224.5108.5104.127%22%106.8 (1 Win)
Philadelphia 76ers-7.5116.0116.273%78%106.8 (3 Wins)

LA Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Thunder are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Thunder 111 and Lakers 109, and Oklahoma City is winning 56% of simulations. The moneyline for the Lakers is -187 which translates to 65 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Thunder averaged 112 points per game and the Lakers 107. The computer would set the spread at OKC -1.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening OKC +4.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Lakers are 8-5-0. As an underdog, the Thunder are 7-3-0. The Thunder are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Lakers. The Thunder were favored by an average of -5 points in these games and they won by an average of 5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
LA Lakers211107.8109.163%44%106.6 (4 Wins)
Oklahoma City Thunder+4.5103.2110.637%56%111.6 (4 Wins)

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Dallas Mavericks

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Mavericks over the Cavaliers. The projected score is Mavericks 109 and Cavaliers 102, and Dallas is winning 67% of the sims. The Mavericks are -509 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 84 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In their last 5 matchups the Mavericks are 3-2. In these games the Mavericks averaged 111 points per game and the Cavaliers 107. The computer would set the spread at DAL -7. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -10. The Mavericks have a record of 5-5-0 as a favorite. The Cavaliers have a record of 6-6-2 as an underdog. While they may be 2-3 straight up vs the Mavericks, the Cavaliers have been better against the spread. The Cavaliers are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Mavericks. The average point spread in these games was Cavaliers -0.1 but the Mavericks won by an average of 4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cleveland Cavaliers220105.0101.720%33%106.8 (2 Wins)
Dallas Mavericks-10.0115.0108.780%67%110.8 (3 Wins)

Boston Celtics vs Denver Nuggets

The odds favor the Nuggets, and the sims are solidly on the Nuggets as well. The projected score is Nuggets 105 and Celtics 101, and Denver is winning 60% of simulations. The moneyline for the Nuggets is -184 which translates to 65 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Nuggets averaged 114 points per game and the Celtics 112. The projection based point spread is DEN -3.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -4.5. The Nuggets have a record of 6-6-1 as a favorite. The Celtics have a record of 14-12-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Nuggets are 2-1-1 against the spread vs the Celtics. The average point spread in these games was Celtics -1.8 but the Nuggets won by an average of 2.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Celtics206100.8101.437%40%111.8 (2 Wins)
Denver Nuggets-4.5105.2104.763%60%114.2 (2 Wins)

Golden State Warriors vs Utah Jazz

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Jazz over the Warriors. The projected score is Jazz 107 and Warriors 90, and Utah is winning 86% of the sims. The Jazz are -2364 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 96 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Jazz have the recent head-to-head edge going 5-3. In these games the Jazz averaged 115 points per game and the Warriors 106. The projection based point spread is UTA -17. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -15.5. The Jazz have a record of 4-7-0 as a favorite. The Warriors have a record of 6-7-1 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Jazz are 7-1-0 against the spread vs the Warriors. The average point spread in these games was Warriors -1 but the Jazz won by an average of 9.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Golden State Warriors--90.890.08%14%105.6 (3 Wins)
Utah Jazz-15.5106.3107.192%86%115.0 (5 Wins)

Houston Rockets vs LA Clippers

The odds favor the Clippers, and the sims are solidly on the Clippers as well. The projected score is Clippers 116 and Rockets 108, with Los Angeles winning 69% of the time. The Clippers are -187 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 65 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Rockets averaged 111 and the Clippers 109 ppg. The projection based point spread is LAC -8. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -4.5. The Clippers have a record of 6-5-0 as a favorite. The Rockets have a record of 15-9-0 as an underdog. The Clippers are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Rockets. The average point spread in these games was Rockets -5.5 and they won by an average of 1.9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Rockets226.5111.0107.837%31%111.0 (4 Wins)
LA Clippers-4.5115.5115.663%69%109.1 (4 Wins)

Saturday, November 23, 2019

Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Suns are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Suns 114 and Timberwolves 112, with Phoenix winning 55% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. Head-to-head, the Timberwolves are 4-3. In these games the Timberwolves averaged 112 points per game and the Suns 107. The computer would set the spread at PHO -2. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Timberwolves have a record of 19-20-1 as a favorite. The Suns have a record of 40-44-0 as an underdog. The Suns have been better against the spread than straight up vs the Timberwolves. The Suns have the ATS edge head to head going 4-2-1 vs the Timberwolves. The Timberwolves were favored by an average of -9.3 points in these games and they won by an average of 4.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Phoenix Suns----114.4--55%107.4 (3 Wins)
Minnesota Timberwolves----112.2--45%111.9 (4 Wins)

Chicago Bulls vs Charlotte Hornets

The odds favor the Bulls, and the sims are solidly on the Bulls as well. The projected score is Bulls 110 and Hornets 107, and Chicago is winning 57% of simulations. The moneyline for the Bulls is -162 which translates to 62 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Hornets averaged 120 points per game and the Bulls 116. The computer would set the spread at CHI -2.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening CHA +3.5. The Bulls have a record of 5-9-0 as a favorite. The Hornets have a record of 7-6-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. They both covered the spread 4 times in their last few matchups. The Hornets were favored by an average of -6.4 points in these games and they won by an average of 4.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Bulls216.5110.0109.860%57%115.8 (4 Wins)
Charlotte Hornets+3.5106.5107.340%43%119.9 (4 Wins)

Orlando Magic vs Indiana Pacers

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Pacers are favored. The projected score is Pacers 107 and Magic 97, with Indiana winning 73% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Pacers have the recent head-to-head edge going 5-3. In these games the Pacers averaged 111 points per game and the Magic 107. The computer would set the spread at IND -10.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Pacers are 27-27-3. As an underdog, the Magic are 32-30-2. They both covered the spread 4 times in their last few matchups. The Pacers were favored by an average of -0.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 4.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Orlando Magic----96.7--27%106.9 (3 Wins)
Indiana Pacers----107.3--73%111.1 (5 Wins)

Toronto Raptors vs Atlanta Hawks

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Raptors are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Raptors 124 and Hawks 103, and Toronto is winning 91% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Raptors have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-0 record. In these games, the Raptors averaged 112 and the Hawks 96 ppg. The projection based point spread is TOR -20.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Hawks have a record of 9-12-0 as a favorite. The Raptors have a record of 17-12-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Raptors have the ATS edge head to head going 6-1-0 vs the Hawks. The average point spread in these games was Raptors -9.2 and they won by an average of 16.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Raptors----123.8--91%112.0 (7 Wins)
Atlanta Hawks----103.2--9%95.6 (0 Wins)

San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Spurs are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Spurs 110 and Knicks 107, with San Antonio being given a 56% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Spurs going 4-1. In these games, the Spurs averaged 113 and the Knicks 104 ppg. The projection based point spread is SA -2.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Knicks are 5-9-0. As an underdog, the Spurs are 21-20-1. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Spurs are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Knicks. The average point spread in these games was Spurs -9.9 and they won by an average of 8.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Antonio Spurs----109.6--56%113.2 (4 Wins)
New York Knicks----107.1--44%104.4 (1 Win)

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the 76ers are winning a slight majority of simulations. The projected score is 76ers 107 and Heat 106, with Philadelphia winning 52% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the 76ers going 8-4. In these games the 76ers averaged 109 points per game and the Heat 105. The computer would set the spread at PHI -1. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the 76ers are 4-6-0. As an underdog, the Heat are 29-16-1. They both covered the spread 5 times in their last few matchupsThe 76ers were favored by an average of -2.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 3.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Heat----105.8--48%105.3 (4 Wins)
Philadelphia 76ers----106.7--52%108.9 (8 Wins)

Portland Trail Blazers vs Cleveland Cavaliers

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Trail Blazers are favored. The projected score is Trail Blazers 114 and Cavaliers 103, with Portland winning 74% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Trail Blazers are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games, the Trail Blazers averaged 119 and the Cavaliers 114 ppg. The computer would set the spread at POR -11. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Cavaliers have a record of 28-52-1 as a favorite. The Trail Blazers have a record of 22-24-1 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Trail Blazers have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Cavaliers. The average point spread in these games was Trail Blazers -4.8 and they won by an average of 5.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Portland Trail Blazers----114.2--74%118.8 (3 Wins)
Cleveland Cavaliers----103.4--26%113.5 (1 Win)

LA Lakers vs Memphis Grizzlies

The current simulations favor the Lakers, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Lakers 114 and Grizzlies 110, with Los Angeles winning 62% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Lakers averaged 107 and the Grizzlies 103 ppg. The projection based point spread is LAL -5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Grizzlies are 13-15-0. As an underdog, the Lakers are 18-20-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. Both have covered 4 times head-to-head. The average point spread in these games was Lakers -2.9 and they won by an average of 4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
LA Lakers----114.4--62%106.9 (4 Wins)
Memphis Grizzlies----109.5--38%102.9 (4 Wins)

Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Bucks are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Bucks 123 and Pistons 115, and Milwaukee is winning 66% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Bucks going 10-2. In these games the Bucks averaged 111 points per game and the Pistons 100. The computer would set the spread at MIL -8. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Bucks have a record of 6-8-0 as a favorite. The Pistons have a record of 23-31-4 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Bucks are 7-4-1 against the spread vs the Pistons. The Bucks were favored by an average of -7.3 points in these games and they won by an average of 10.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Pistons----114.7--34%100.1 (2 Wins)
Milwaukee Bucks----122.9--66%110.9 (10 Wins)

New Orleans Pelicans vs Utah Jazz

The current simulations favor the Jazz, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Jazz 117 and Pelicans 104, with Utah winning 79% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Jazz have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-2 record. In these games the Jazz averaged 117 points per game and the Pelicans 108. The projection based point spread is UTA -12.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Jazz have a record of 4-7-0 as a favorite. The Pelicans have a record of 5-5-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Jazz have the ATS edge head to head going 5-2-0 vs the Pelicans. The Jazz were favored by an average of -2.4 points in these games and they won by an average of 9.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Pelicans----104.2--21%107.7 (2 Wins)
Utah Jazz----116.8--79%117.0 (5 Wins)