NBA Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard for Nov 23

Saturday, November 23, 2019

Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds clearly favor the Timberwolves. The projected score is Suns 112 and Timberwolves 111, with Phoenix winning 50% of the latest sims. At -261 on the moneyline, the Timberwolves implied probability to win is 72 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In their last 7 matchups the Timberwolves are 4-3. In these games the Timberwolves averaged 112 points per game and the Suns 107. The computer would set this game as a pick 'em. Bettors seem to be favoring the Suns with the Vegas moving from +6.5 to +6. The Timberwolves have a record of 19-20-1 as a favorite. The Suns have a record of 40-44-0 as an underdog. While they may be 3-4 straight up vs the Timberwolves, the Suns have been better against the spread. The Suns are 4-2-1 against the spread vs the Timberwolves. The Timberwolves were favored by an average of -9.3 points in these games and they won by an average of 4.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Phoenix Suns227.5110.8111.831%50%107.4 (3 Wins)
Minnesota Timberwolves-6.0116.7111.969%50%111.9 (4 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Chicago Bulls vs Charlotte Hornets

The odds favor the Bulls, and the sims are solidly on the Bulls as well. The projected score is Bulls 110 and Hornets 107, with Chicago being given a 58% chance of winning. The Bulls are -116 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 54 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Hornets averaged 120 points per game and the Bulls 116. The computer would set the spread at CHI -3. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening CHA +1. The Bulls have a record of 5-9-0 as a favorite. The Hornets have a record of 7-7-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. Both have covered 4 times head-to-head. The Hornets were favored by an average of -6.4 points in these games and they won by an average of 4.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Bulls218.5109.8109.851%58%115.8 (4 Wins)
Charlotte Hornets+1.0108.7106.949%42%119.9 (4 Wins)

Orlando Magic vs Indiana Pacers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Pacers over the Magic. The projected score is Pacers 108 and Magic 94, with Indiana winning 81% of the time. The moneyline for the Pacers is -383 which translates to 79 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Pacers are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. In these games the Pacers averaged 111 points per game and the Magic 107. The projection based point spread is IND -13.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -8. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Pacers are 27-27-3. As an underdog, the Magic are 32-30-2. Both have covered 4 times head-to-head. The Pacers were favored by an average of -0.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 4.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Orlando Magic--97.094.324%19%106.9 (3 Wins)
Indiana Pacers-8.0104.9107.676%81%111.1 (5 Wins)

Toronto Raptors vs Atlanta Hawks

The Raptors are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Raptors 120 and Hawks 107, with Toronto winning 81% of the latest sims. The Raptors are -292 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 74 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Raptors have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-0 record. In these games, the Raptors averaged 112 and the Hawks 96 ppg. The computer would set the spread at TOR -13. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening ATL +7. The Raptors have a record of 43-46-1 as a favorite. The Hawks have a record of 6-8-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Raptors have the ATS edge head to head going 6-1-0 vs the Hawks. The average point spread in these games was Raptors -9.2 and they won by an average of 16.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Raptors223.5115.2119.772%81%112.0 (7 Wins)
Atlanta Hawks+7.0108.3106.728%19%95.6 (0 Wins)

San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks

The odds favor the Spurs, and the sims are solidly on the Spurs as well. The projected score is Spurs 110 and Knicks 107, with San Antonio being given a 58% chance of winning. At -130 on the moneyline, the Spurs implied probability to win is 57 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Spurs have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games, the Spurs averaged 113 and the Knicks 104 ppg. The projection based point spread is SA -3. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening NY +2. The Spurs have a record of 2-8-0 as a favorite. The Knicks have a record of 7-5-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Spurs have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Knicks. The average point spread in these games was Spurs -9.9 and they won by an average of 8.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Antonio Spurs218110.0109.754%58%113.2 (4 Wins)
New York Knicks+2.0108.0106.846%42%104.4 (1 Win)

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers

The odds favor the 76ers, and the sims are solidly on the 76ers as well. The projected score is 76ers 108 and Heat 106, and Philadelphia is winning 56% of simulations. The 76ers are -178 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 64 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The 76ers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 8-4 record. In these games the 76ers averaged 109 points per game and the Heat 105. The computer would set the spread at PHI -2.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the 76ers are 5-6-0. As an underdog, the Heat are 29-16-1. Both have covered 5 times head-to-headThe 76ers were favored by an average of -2.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 3.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Heat214105.0105.538%44%105.3 (4 Wins)
Philadelphia 76ers-4.0109.0108.162%56%108.9 (8 Wins)

Portland Trail Blazers vs Cleveland Cavaliers

The odds favor the Trail Blazers, and the sims are solidly on the Trail Blazers as well. The projected score is Trail Blazers 116 and Cavaliers 104, and Portland is winning 79% of simulations. The Trail Blazers are -208 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 68 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Trail Blazers have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games, the Trail Blazers averaged 119 and the Cavaliers 114 ppg. The projection based point spread is POR -13. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening CLE +5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Trail Blazers are 37-29-1. As an underdog, the Cavaliers are 6-7-2. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Trail Blazers are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Cavaliers. The average point spread in these games was Trail Blazers -4.8 and they won by an average of 5.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Portland Trail Blazers--112.5116.565%79%118.8 (3 Wins)
Cleveland Cavaliers+5.0107.5103.535%21%113.5 (1 Win)

LA Lakers vs Memphis Grizzlies

The odds and our simulations favor the Lakers over the Grizzlies despite being on the road. The projected score is Lakers 115 and Grizzlies 110, and Los Angeles is winning 62% of simulations. The moneyline for the Lakers is -313 which translates to 76 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Lakers averaged 107 and the Grizzlies 103 ppg. The computer would set the spread at LAL -5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening MEM +7.5. The Lakers have a record of 8-6-0 as a favorite. The Grizzlies have a record of 5-8-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. Both have covered 4 times head-to-head. The average point spread in these games was Lakers -2.9 and they won by an average of 4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
LA Lakers221114.2115.173%62%106.9 (4 Wins)
Memphis Grizzlies+7.5106.8110.227%38%102.9 (4 Wins)

Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Bucks 123 and Pistons 115, and Milwaukee is winning 69% of simulations. At -962 on the moneyline, the Bucks implied probability to win is 91 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Bucks going 10-2. In these games the Bucks averaged 111 points per game and the Pistons 100. The projection based point spread is MIL -8. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -12. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Bucks are 6-8-0. As an underdog, the Pistons are 23-31-4. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Bucks are 7-4-1 against the spread vs the Pistons. The Bucks were favored by an average of -7.3 points in these games and they won by an average of 10.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Pistons--113.0114.913%31%100.1 (2 Wins)
Milwaukee Bucks-12.0125.0123.187%69%110.9 (10 Wins)

New Orleans Pelicans vs Utah Jazz

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Jazz over the Pelicans. The projected score is Jazz 118 and Pelicans 103, with Utah winning 81% of the time. The moneyline for the Jazz is -345 which translates to 78 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Jazz have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-2 record. In these games the Jazz averaged 117 points per game and the Pelicans 108. The projection based point spread is UTA -15. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -8. The Jazz have a record of 4-8-0 as a favorite. The Pelicans have a record of 5-5-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Jazz have the ATS edge head to head going 5-2-0 vs the Pelicans. The Jazz were favored by an average of -2.4 points in these games and they won by an average of 9.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Pelicans222.5107.2103.225%19%107.7 (2 Wins)
Utah Jazz-8.0115.3118.175%81%117.0 (5 Wins)

Sunday, November 24, 2019

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Rockets to win the game. The projected score is Rockets 115 and Mavericks 108, and Houston is winning 68% of simulations. At -324 on the moneyline, the Rockets implied probability to win is 76 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Rockets going 6-2. In these games the Rockets averaged 106 points per game and the Mavericks 100. The projection based point spread is HOU -7. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -7.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rockets are 6-7-0. As an underdog, the Mavericks are 33-21-1. They both covered the spread 4 times in their last few matchups. The Rockets were favored by an average of -8.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 5.9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Mavericks--107.5107.827%32%99.9 (2 Wins)
Houston Rockets-7.5115.0114.773%68%105.8 (6 Wins)

Brooklyn Nets vs New York Knicks

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Nets are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Nets 112 and Knicks 106, and Brooklyn is winning 63% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. Head-to-head, the Knicks are 5-4. In these games the Knicks averaged 109 points per game and the Nets 103. The projection based point spread is BKN -5.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Knicks have a record of 5-9-0 as a favorite. The Nets have a record of 33-31-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Knicks have the ATS edge head to head going 7-2-0 vs the Nets. The average point spread in these games was Nets -1.6 but the Knicks won by an average of 6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Brooklyn Nets----111.5--63%102.9 (4 Wins)
New York Knicks----106.1--37%108.9 (5 Wins)

Sacramento Kings vs Washington Wizards

With unknown variables yet to be determined, the simulations have this as a coin flip and Vegas has not posted lines yet. The projected score is Kings 118 and Wizards 117, with Sacramento being given a 50% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Wizards have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games the Wizards averaged 113 points per game and the Kings 102. If you used the computer projected score to set the line, this would be a pick 'em. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Wizards have a record of 21-23-0 as a favorite. The Kings have a record of 32-30-2 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Wizards are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Kings. The Wizards were favored by an average of -6.6 points in these games and they won by an average of 11.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Sacramento Kings----118.4--50%101.5 (1 Win)
Washington Wizards----118.6--50%113.2 (3 Wins)

Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Nuggets are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Nuggets 115 and Suns 104, and Denver is winning 77% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Nuggets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-2 record. In these games the Nuggets averaged 116 points per game and the Suns 106. The computer would set the spread at DEN -11.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Nuggets are 6-7-1. As an underdog, the Suns are 40-44-0. Both have covered 4 times head-to-head. The Nuggets were favored by an average of -9.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 10.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Phoenix Suns----103.5--23%105.6 (2 Wins)
Denver Nuggets----115.0--77%116.4 (6 Wins)

New Orleans Pelicans vs LA Clippers

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Clippers are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Clippers 123 and Pelicans 111, and Los Angeles is winning 74% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Pelicans have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-2 record. In these games, the Pelicans averaged 118 and the Clippers 114 ppg. The projection based point spread is LAC -11. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Clippers have a record of 6-6-0 as a favorite. The Pelicans have a record of 5-5-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Pelicans have the ATS edge head to head going 6-2-0 vs the Clippers. The average point spread in these games was Pelicans -2.5 and they won by an average of 3.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Pelicans----111.4--26%117.9 (6 Wins)
LA Clippers----122.6--74%114.1 (2 Wins)