NBA Game Forecasts, Picks and Previews with Projected Scoreboard for Nov 8

Friday, November 08, 2019

Detroit Pistons vs Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Pacers 112 and Pistons 98, with Indiana winning 80% of the time. At -329 on the moneyline, the Pacers implied probability to win is 77 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. They both have 3 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Pacers averaged 110 points per game and the Pistons 101. The computer would set the spread at IND -14. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -7.5. The Pacers have a record of 26-27-2 as a favorite. The Pistons have a record of 23-30-3 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. They both covered the spread 3 times in their last few matchups. The Pacers were favored by an average of -2.7 points in these games and they won by an average of 8.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Pistons211101.898.227%20%101.2 (3 Wins)
Indiana Pacers-7.5109.2112.173%80%109.5 (3 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Memphis Grizzlies vs Orlando Magic

The Magic are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Magic 105 and Grizzlies 97, and Orlando is winning 68% of simulations. The Magic are -264 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 73 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Magic have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games the Magic averaged 107 points per game and the Grizzlies 106. The computer would set the spread at ORL -7.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -6.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Magic are 16-15-1. As an underdog, the Grizzlies are 28-33-1. They both covered the spread 2 times in their last few matchups. The Magic were favored by an average of -3.2 points in these games and they won by an average of 1.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Memphis Grizzlies208100.897.330%32%105.8 (1 Win)
Orlando Magic-6.5107.2104.970%68%107.0 (3 Wins)

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Washington Wizards

The odds favor the Wizards, and the sims are solidly on the Wizards as well. The projected score is Wizards 115 and Cavaliers 106, and Washington is winning 71% of simulations. The Wizards are -203 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 67 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Cavaliers have the recent head-to-head edge going 5-3. In these games the Wizards averaged 112 points per game and the Cavaliers 111. The computer would set the spread at WAS -9. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -5. The Wizards have a record of 20-22-0 as a favorite. The Cavaliers have a record of 37-42-3 as an underdog. They both covered the spread 4 times in their last few matchups. The Wizards were favored by an average of -3.7 points in these games and they won by an average of 0.9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cleveland Cavaliers228.5111.8106.035%29%111.4 (5 Wins)
Washington Wizards-5.0116.7114.965%71%112.2 (3 Wins)

Sacramento Kings vs Atlanta Hawks

The odds favor the Kings, and the sims are solidly on the Kings as well. The projected score is Kings 112 and Hawks 106, with Sacramento being given a 63% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Kings is -126 which translates to 56 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Kings since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The Kings have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games, the Kings averaged 116 and the Hawks 111 ppg. The computer would set the spread at SAC -5.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening ATL +1.5. The Kings have a record of 19-11-0 as a favorite. The Hawks have a record of 43-36-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Kings are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Hawks. The average point spread in these games was Kings -1.4 and they won by an average of 5.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Sacramento Kings218.5110.0111.953%63%116.5 (3 Wins)
Atlanta Hawks+1.5108.5106.347%37%111.0 (1 Win)

Golden State Warriors vs Minnesota Timberwolves

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Timberwolves over the Warriors. The projected score is Timberwolves 112 and Warriors 106, and Minnesota is winning 66% of the sims. The moneyline for the Timberwolves is -934 which translates to 90 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Warriors going 5-2. In these games, the Warriors averaged 119 and the Timberwolves 110 ppg. The computer would set the spread at MIN -6. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -12. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Timberwolves are 18-17-1. As an underdog, the Warriors are 9-8-1. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Warriors are 4-3-0 against the spread vs the Timberwolves. The average point spread in these games was Warriors -8.7 and they won by an average of 9.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Golden State Warriors--103.1106.114%34%119.0 (5 Wins)
Minnesota Timberwolves-12.0115.1112.186%66%109.7 (2 Wins)

Toronto Raptors vs New Orleans Pelicans

The odds favor the Raptors, and the sims are solidly on the Raptors as well. The projected score is Raptors 126 and Pelicans 117, with Toronto being given a 71% chance of winning. At -136 on the moneyline, the Raptors implied probability to win is 58 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Raptors going 4-1. In these games, the Raptors averaged 123 and the Pelicans 117 ppg. The computer would set the spread at TOR -8.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening NO +2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Raptors are 40-46-1. As an underdog, the Pelicans are 25-26-1. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Raptors are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Pelicans. The average point spread in these games was Raptors -5.5 and they won by an average of 5.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Raptors234118.2125.755%71%122.8 (4 Wins)
New Orleans Pelicans+2.5115.8117.245%29%117.2 (1 Win)

New York Knicks vs Dallas Mavericks

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Mavericks over the Knicks. The projected score is Mavericks 111 and Knicks 98, with Dallas winning 80% of the time. At -699 on the moneyline, the Mavericks implied probability to win is 87 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Mavericks averaged 106 points per game and the Knicks 101. The computer would set the spread at DAL -13.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -11. The Mavericks have a record of 15-18-1 as a favorite. The Knicks have a record of 32-44-3 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The Mavericks were favored by an average of -4.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 5.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Knicks217103.097.816%20%101.2 (2 Wins)
Dallas Mavericks-11.0114.0111.184%80%106.5 (2 Wins)

Philadelphia 76ers vs Denver Nuggets

The odds favor the Nuggets, and the sims are solidly on the Nuggets as well. The projected score is Nuggets 113 and 76ers 105, with Denver winning 70% of the time. The Nuggets are -139 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 58 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The 76ers are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games, the 76ers averaged 114 and the Nuggets 110 ppg. The projection based point spread is DEN -8.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -5.5. The Nuggets have a record of 37-34-1 as a favorite. The 76ers have a record of 17-15-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The 76ers have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Nuggets. The Nuggets were favored by an average of -1.5 points in these games but the 76ers won by an average of 3.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia 76ers217.5106.0104.642%30%114.2 (3 Wins)
Denver Nuggets-5.5111.5112.958%70%110.5 (1 Win)

Milwaukee Bucks vs Utah Jazz

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Jazz are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Jazz 110 and Bucks 106, and Utah is winning 60% of simulations. At -124 on the moneyline, the Bucks implied probability to win is 55 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Bucks averaged 112 and the Jazz 110 ppg. The projection based point spread is UTA -4. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening UTA +1.5. The Bucks have a record of 52-36-3 as a favorite. The Jazz have a record of 13-11-0 as an underdog. The Bucks have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Jazz. The average point spread in these games was Bucks -0.8 and they won by an average of 3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Bucks217.5109.5106.253%40%112.5 (2 Wins)
Utah Jazz+1.5108.0110.047%60%109.5 (2 Wins)

Brooklyn Nets vs Portland Trail Blazers

The odds favor the Trail Blazers, and the sims are solidly on the Trail Blazers as well. The projected score is Trail Blazers 120 and Nets 113, and Portland is winning 67% of simulations. The moneyline for the Trail Blazers is -149 which translates to 60 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Trail Blazers have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games the Trail Blazers averaged 121 points per game and the Nets 117. The projection based point spread is POR -7. Bettors seem to be favoring the Nets with the Vegas moving from +3 to +2.5. The Trail Blazers have a record of 36-26-1 as a favorite. The Nets have a record of 30-29-0 as an underdog. The Nets have been better against the spread than straight up vs the Trail Blazers. The Nets are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Trail Blazers. The Trail Blazers were favored by an average of -5.5 points in these games and they won by an average of 4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Brooklyn Nets233115.2113.143%33%117.2 (1 Win)
Portland Trail Blazers-2.5117.8120.357%67%121.2 (3 Wins)

Miami Heat vs LA Lakers

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Lakers over the Heat. The projected score is Lakers 112 and Heat 101, with Los Angeles winning 74% of the time. The moneyline for the Lakers is -432 which translates to 81 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Lakers have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games the Lakers averaged 111 points per game and the Heat 102. The computer would set the spread at LAL -10.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -8.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Lakers are 21-27-1. As an underdog, the Heat are 29-15-1. They both covered the spread 2 times in their last few matchups. The Lakers were favored by an average of -0.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Heat215.5103.5101.023%26%101.8 (1 Win)
LA Lakers-8.5112.0111.777%74%110.8 (3 Wins)

Saturday, November 09, 2019

Boston Celtics vs San Antonio Spurs

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Spurs. The projected score is Spurs 109 and Celtics 108, and San Antonio is winning 51% of the sims. The Spurs are -132 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 57 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Spurs have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games the Spurs averaged 108 points per game and the Celtics 104. If you used the computer projected score to set the line, this would be a pick 'em. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Spurs are 28-29-0. As an underdog, the Celtics are 11-12-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Spurs are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Celtics. The average point spread in these games was Celtics -0.1 but the Spurs won by an average of 4.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Celtics--108.1109.346%49%104.2 (1 Win)
San Antonio Spurs-2.5110.6109.454%51%108.5 (3 Wins)

New Orleans Pelicans vs Charlotte Hornets

With unknown variables yet to be determined, the simulations have this as a coin flip and Vegas has not posted lines yet. The projected score is Pelicans 114 and Hornets 113, and New Orleans is winning 50% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Pelicans are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games, the Pelicans averaged 112 and the Hornets 109 ppg. The computer would set the spread at CHA 0. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Hornets have a record of 19-21-2 as a favorite. The Pelicans have a record of 25-26-1 as an underdog. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The Hornets were favored by an average of -1.2 points in these games but the Pelicans won by an average of 3.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Pelicans----114.1--50%112.0 (3 Wins)
Charlotte Hornets----114.3--50%108.8 (1 Win)

Houston Rockets vs Chicago Bulls

The current simulations favor the Rockets, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Rockets 117 and Bulls 110, and Houston is winning 67% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Rockets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-0 record. In these games, the Rockets averaged 113 and the Bulls 96 ppg. The computer would set the spread at HOU -7. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Bulls are 4-8-0. As an underdog, the Rockets are 14-8-0. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Rockets have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Bulls. The average point spread in these games was Rockets -10.4 and they won by an average of 16.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Rockets----117.1--67%112.8 (4 Wins)
Chicago Bulls----109.9--33%96.5 (0 Wins)

Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Grizzlies are favored. The projected score is Grizzlies 113 and Mavericks 109, and Memphis is winning 60% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Grizzlies averaged 103 points per game and the Mavericks 102. The computer would set the spread at MEM -3.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Grizzlies have a record of 13-14-0 as a favorite. The Mavericks have a record of 33-20-1 as an underdog. The Mavericks have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies were favored by an average of -0.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 1.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Mavericks----109.4--40%101.6 (4 Wins)
Memphis Grizzlies----112.8--60%102.8 (4 Wins)

Golden State Warriors vs Oklahoma City Thunder

The current simulations favor the Thunder, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Thunder 105 and Warriors 94, with Oklahoma City winning 77% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Thunder averaged 106 points per game and the Warriors 103. The projection based point spread is OKC -11.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Thunder have a record of 32-33-1 as a favorite. The Warriors have a record of 9-8-1 as an underdog. The Thunder have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Warriors. The average point spread in these games was Warriors -4.1 but the Thunder won by an average of 3.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Golden State Warriors----93.8--23%103.0 (4 Wins)
Oklahoma City Thunder----105.1--77%106.4 (4 Wins)