NBA Opening Night Picks: Zion Loses to Raptors and Lakers Win By 1 vs Clippers

Tuesday, October 22, 2019

New Orleans Pelicans vs Toronto Raptors

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Raptors to win the game. The projected score is Raptors 112 and Pelicans 107, and Toronto is winning 63% of simulations. The moneyline for the Raptors is -247 which translates to 71 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Raptors are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games the Raptors averaged 121 points per game and the Pelicans 116. The computer would set the spread at TOR -5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -5.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Raptors are 36-45-1. As an underdog, the Pelicans are 23-23-1. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The Raptors were favored by an average of -5.2 points in these games and they won by an average of 5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Pelicans227110.8107.132%37%116.0 (1 Win)
Toronto Raptors-5.5116.2111.968%63%121.0 (3 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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LA Lakers vs LA Clippers

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Lakers are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Lakers 121 and Clippers 120, with the Clippers winning 49% of the time. At -122 on the moneyline, the Clippers implied probability to win is 55 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Clippers are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. In these games the Clippers averaged 115 points per game and the Lakers 111. The projection based point spread is LAL -1. Bettors seem to be favoring the Clippers as the Vegas line has moved from -1 to -1.5. The Clippers have a record of 29-15-0 as a favorite. The Lakers have a record of 18-20-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Clippers have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Lakers. The Clippers were favored by an average of -3.7 points in these games and they won by an average of 4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
LA Lakers227.5113.0120.848%51%110.6 (3 Wins)
LA Clippers-1.5114.5120.352%49%114.6 (5 Wins)

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Chicago Bulls vs Charlotte Hornets

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Hornets. The projected score is Hornets 107 and Bulls 106, and Charlotte is winning 52% of the sims. The Hornets are -120 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 55 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In their last 7 matchups the Bulls are 4-3. In these games the Hornets averaged 119 points per game and the Bulls 114. The projection based point spread is CHA -1. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -1. The Hornets have a record of 19-21-1 as a favorite. The Bulls have a record of 33-41-1 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Bulls are 4-3-0 against the spread vs the Hornets. The Hornets were favored by an average of -7.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 4.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Chicago Bulls--106.1106.149%48%114.4 (4 Wins)
Charlotte Hornets-1.0107.2107.251%52%119.0 (3 Wins)

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Orlando Magic

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Magic to win the game. The projected score is Magic 110 and Cavaliers 104, and Orlando is winning 64% of simulations. The moneyline for the Magic is -345 which translates to 78 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In their last 7 matchups the Magic are 4-3. In these games the Magic averaged 111 points per game and the Cavaliers 103. The projection based point spread is ORL -5.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -7.5. The Magic have a record of 15-13-1 as a favorite. The Cavaliers have a record of 34-40-1 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Magic are 5-2-0 against the spread vs the Cavaliers. The average point spread in these games was Cavaliers -2.9 but the Magic won by an average of 7.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cleveland Cavaliers--102.9103.928%36%103.4 (3 Wins)
Orlando Magic-7.5110.5109.572%64%110.7 (4 Wins)

Detroit Pistons vs Indiana Pacers

The odds favor the Pacers, and the sims are solidly on the Pacers as well. The projected score is Pacers 116 and Pistons 103, with Indiana winning 80% of the time. At -167 on the moneyline, the Pacers implied probability to win is 63 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Pacers averaged 105 points per game and the Pistons 102. The projection based point spread is IND -13. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -3.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Pacers are 24-23-1. As an underdog, the Pistons are 20-26-3. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. Both have covered 4 times head-to-head. The Pacers were favored by an average of -0.6 points in these games and they won by an average of 2.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Pistons--107.9103.142%20%102.1 (4 Wins)
Indiana Pacers-3.5111.5116.358%80%104.8 (4 Wins)

Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers

The odds favor the 76ers, and the sims are solidly on the 76ers as well. The projected score is 76ers 119 and Celtics 116, with Philadelphia winning 58% of the time. The moneyline for the 76ers is -242 which translates to 71 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Celtics going 10-3. In these games, the Celtics averaged 107 and the 76ers 102 ppg. The computer would set the spread at PHI -4. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -6. The 76ers have a record of 31-33-0 as a favorite. The Celtics have a record of 10-11-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Celtics are 11-2-0 against the spread vs the 76ers. The 76ers were favored by an average of -1.1 points in these games but the Celtics won by an average of 4.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Celtics--114.4115.533%42%106.8 (10 Wins)
Philadelphia 76ers-6.0120.4119.367%58%102.0 (3 Wins)

Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Heat over the Grizzlies. The projected score is Heat 108 and Grizzlies 102, and Miami is winning 66% of simulations. The Heat are -345 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 78 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Heat going 4-0. In these games the Heat averaged 108 points per game and the Grizzlies 94. The projection based point spread is MIA -6. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -7.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Heat are 17-24-1. As an underdog, the Grizzlies are 26-28-1. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Heat are 4-0-0 against the spread vs the Grizzlies. The Heat were favored by an average of -1.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 14.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Memphis Grizzlies--101.7102.328%34%94.0 (0 Wins)
Miami Heat-7.5109.1108.572%66%108.5 (4 Wins)

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Brooklyn Nets

The odds favor the Nets, and the sims are solidly on the Nets as well. The projected score is Nets 123 and Timberwolves 112, and Brooklyn is winning 74% of the sims. The Nets are -192 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 66 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Timberwolves are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games, the Timberwolves averaged 110 and the Nets 102 ppg. The projection based point spread is BKN -10.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -4.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Nets are 16-12-0. As an underdog, the Timberwolves are 23-25-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Timberwolves have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Nets. The average point spread in these games was Timberwolves -5.8 and they won by an average of 7.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Timberwolves--115.5112.538%26%110.0 (3 Wins)
Brooklyn Nets-4.5120.0123.162%74%102.5 (1 Win)

New York Knicks vs San Antonio Spurs

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Spurs to win the game. The projected score is Spurs 113 and Knicks 102, and San Antonio is winning 75% of simulations. The Spurs are -526 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 84 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Spurs have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games the Spurs averaged 112 points per game and the Knicks 103. The computer would set the spread at SA -11. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -9.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Spurs are 26-25-0. As an underdog, the Knicks are 28-40-3. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Spurs are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Knicks. The Spurs were favored by an average of -9.6 points in these games and they won by an average of 8.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Knicks--103.0102.421%25%102.8 (1 Win)
San Antonio Spurs-9.5112.5113.279%75%111.5 (3 Wins)

Washington Wizards vs Dallas Mavericks

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Mavericks over the Wizards. The projected score is Mavericks 119 and Wizards 107, with Dallas winning 76% of the time. The moneyline for the Mavericks is -345 which translates to 78 percent (chance of winning). The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Mavericks are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games the Mavericks averaged 113 points per game and the Wizards 102. The projection based point spread is DAL -12. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -7.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Mavericks are 14-15-1. As an underdog, the Wizards are 19-23-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Mavericks have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Wizards. The average point spread in these games was Wizards -4.8 but the Mavericks won by an average of 11.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Wizards--109.2107.028%24%101.5 (1 Win)
Dallas Mavericks-7.5116.7118.972%76%113.2 (3 Wins)

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Utah Jazz

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Jazz to win the game. The projected score is Jazz 115 and Thunder 105, and Utah is winning 73% of the sims. At -667 on the moneyline, the Jazz implied probability to win is 87 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Thunder going 9-5. In these games, the Thunder averaged 106 and the Jazz 103 ppg. The projection based point spread is UTA -9.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -10.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Jazz are 33-31-1. As an underdog, the Thunder are 14-10-0. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Thunder are 8-6-0 against the spread vs the Jazz. The average point spread in these games was Thunder -1.2 and they won by an average of 2.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Oklahoma City Thunder--104.5104.918%27%105.6 (9 Wins)
Utah Jazz-10.5115.0114.682%73%103.3 (5 Wins)

Denver Nuggets vs Portland Trail Blazers

The odds favor the Trail Blazers, and the sims are solidly on the Trail Blazers as well. The projected score is Trail Blazers 111 and Nuggets 108, and Portland is winning 59% of the sims. The Trail Blazers are -138 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 58 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Nuggets going 9-6. In these games, the Nuggets averaged 108 and the Trail Blazers 106 ppg. The projection based point spread is POR -3.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -1.5. The Trail Blazers have a record of 34-24-1 as a favorite. The Nuggets have a record of 14-15-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Nuggets are 9-5-1 against the spread vs the Trail Blazers. The average point spread in these games was Nuggets -1 and they won by an average of 1.9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Denver Nuggets--108.7107.745%41%108.3 (9 Wins)
Portland Trail Blazers-1.5110.1111.255%59%106.4 (6 Wins)

Sacramento Kings vs Phoenix Suns

The odds favor the Kings, and the sims are solidly on the Kings as well. The projected score is Kings 118 and Suns 116, with Sacramento being given a 55% chance of winning. At -128 on the moneyline, the Kings implied probability to win is 56 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Kings averaged 109 and the Suns 106 ppg. The projection based point spread is SAC -2. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening PHO +1.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Kings are 18-9-0. As an underdog, the Suns are 34-42-0. The Suns are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Kings. The average point spread in these games was Kings -5.2 and they won by an average of 3.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Sacramento Kings--117.8118.052%55%108.9 (4 Wins)
Phoenix Suns+1.5116.3116.148%45%105.5 (4 Wins)