NBA Outlook: Bet on the Boston Celtics to Win the East at 6/1, 14.3%...Projected to Finish Ahead of Heat

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

They are one of 3 teams with 20/1, 4.8% odds to win the championship. Their simulation based win percentage (4.4%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. They are a good bet to win the East at 6/1, 14.3%. Their sim chance is 16.3%. They are projected to win 54 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 49.5. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs, but they do not have a great chance of winning their division (15.5%). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 64 games, their expected win percentage is 61% based on the money line odds. At 43-21 they ahead of expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be up big (+285 units). They are one of the best teams against the spread (37-26-1) for a 840 profit. Their under-over record is 34-30. Based on computer simulations they only have a 43% chance to beat the Bucks in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/12 MIL43%3-75-55-5
3/13 WAS78%4-13-23-2
3/15 CHI69%4-14-12-3
3/18 NY79%6-13-3-13-4
3/20 TOR49%4-34-35-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 56.7% (#14 in League). The team shooting has declined to 53.5% in their last 7 games. They average 112.4 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.3. On the road they average 110.7 (109.6 expected), and at home 114.1 ppg (112.9 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.8 true FG% (#7 in League). They allow 108 pts per game vs an expected value of 106.8. They are allowing 108.6 (107.6 expected) on the road, and at home 107.3 ppg (106 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They are outrebounding opponents by 1.6 per game (#11 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 0.4.

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.6 per game (#5 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Jayson Tatum who is projected to be the #8 Forward the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Jayson Tatum1008Paul GeorgeJimmy Butler
Kemba Walker10018Chris PaulLonzo Ball
Jaylen Brown9926Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderLouis Williams
Gordon Hayward9927Draymond GreenBojan Bogdanovic
Marcus Smart8942Elfrid PaytonBuddy Hield
Daniel Theis6619Thomas BryantDwight Howard
Enes Kanter4531Aron BaynesMohamed Bamba
Robert Williams740Nicolo MelliBismack Biyombo
Brad Wanamaker1128Caleb MartinKeldon Johnson
Grant Williams3122Bruno CabocloCheick Diallo