NBA Outlook: Bet on the Denver Nuggets to Win the Championship at 20/1, 4.8%...Projected to Finish Ahead of Clippers

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

They are one of 4 teams with 20/1, 4.8% odds to win the championship. Even with the juice, the Nuggets are a good betting value. Their 6.2% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #5 in the league. They are also a good bet to win the West at 10/1, 9.1%. Their sim chance is 14.3%. They are projected to win 54 games and live up to their pre-season futures line of 53.5. They are making the playoffs. Their chances of winning the division stand at 63.2%. They were a -1600 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their preseason chances to win the division were 36.9% at 1/1, 50%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the West.

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NBA games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 33.3-21.7. They are ahead of expectations with their 38-17 record. Money line betters would be up big taking them in every game (+1389 units). They are 27-25-3 against the spread for a -50 loss. Their under-over record is 29-25-1. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Oklahoma City Thunder. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
2/21 OKC53%5-05-02-3
2/23 MIN73%7-04-31-6
2/25 DET81%1-20-32-1
2/28 LAC42%4-14-11-4
3/1 TOR53%2-02-00-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 55.9% (#20 in League). The team has improved to 60.7% in their last 7 games. They average 110.7 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.9. On the road they average 107.2 (110 expected), and at home 114.1 ppg (113.8 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55.5 true FG% (#12 in League). They allow 106.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.1. They are allowing 109.8 (109.7 expected) on the road, and at home 103.6 ppg (106.5 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They are outrebounding opponents by 1.5 per game (#10 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.2 per game (#7 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Nikola Jokic who is projected to be the #2 Center the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Nikola Jokic1002Karl-Anthony TownsNikola Vucevic
Jamal Murray10030Terry RozierRicky Rubio
Will Barton9840Markelle FultzJoe Ingles
Michael Porter Jr.8640Marvin Bagley IIIBrandon Clarke
Paul Millsap7554Kyle KuzmaLauri Markkanen
Jerami Grant5963Cedi OsmanCam Reddish
Gary Harris3781D.J. AugustinBryn Forbes
Monte Morris10101Justin HolidayDelon Wright
Mason Plumlee536Willy HernangomezIan Mahinmi
Jordan McRae15107Cory JosephTony Snell