NBA Outlook: Bet on the LA Lakers to Win the West at 3/2, 40%...Projected to Finish Ahead of Clippers


The Lakers are one of 2 teams tied for having the best chance to win the championship based on the odds (5/2, 28.6%). Their simulation based win percentage (26.7%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. They are a good bet to win the West at 3/2, 40%. Their sim chance is 41.2%. They are projected to win 62 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 48.5. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs. Their chances of winning their division stand at 85.9%. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the West.

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After 26 games, their expected win percentage is 70% based on the money line odds. They are beating expectations with their 23-3 record. If you bet on them to win every game you would be up big (+674 units). They are one of the best teams against the spread (16-10) for a 500 profit. Their under-over record is 14-12. They were expected to win 47% of their games last season so their 37-45 met expectations. They were not good against the spread going 35-46-1 (-1560 loss). More of their games came in under (49) than went over (32). They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Atlanta Hawks. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

12/15 ATL83%2-11-21-2
12/17 IND46%1-11-11-1
12/19 MIL42%0-20-21-1
12/22 DEN69%2-22-20-3-1
12/25 LAC69%2-32-32-3


SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 57.9% (#5 in League). They average 111.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.4. On the road they average 112.5 (112.4 expected), and at home 111 ppg (114.4 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54 true FG% (#8 in League). They allow 113.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 114.3. They are allowing 115.8 (115 expected) on the road, and at home 111.2 ppg (113.6 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +4.2 per game (#3 in league).

TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.9 per game (#7 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -0.6.


The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by LeBron James who is projected to be the #2 Forward the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

LeBron James1002Luka DoncicGiannis Antetokounmpo
Anthony Davis1004Giannis AntetokounmpoPaul George
Kyle Kuzma8452Miles BridgesLarry Nance
Avery Bradley577Darius GarlandBruce Brown
Rajon Rondo5479Bruce BrownKent Bazemore
Danny Green3785Josh OkogieWesley Matthews
JaVale McGee1927Jakob PoeltlDwight Howard
Dwight Howard4528JaVale McGeeJusuf Nurkic
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope4103Stephen CurryAustin Rivers
Alex Caruso2114Ben McLemoreAaron Holiday