NBA Outlook: Bet on the Orlando Magic to Win the Championship at 2000/1...Projected to Finish Ahead of Nets

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their championship odds are 2000/1 (#18 best). They are a good bet to win the championship (0.2 percent chance). They are also a good bet to win the East at 1000/1, 0.1%. Their sim chance is 2.1%. They are projected to win 39 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 42.5. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs even without winning their division. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 65 games, their expected win percentage is 48% based on the money line odds. At 30-35 they are in line with these expectations. Money line backers would be down quite a bit (935 units). They are not good against the spread (31-32-2) for a -420 loss. Their over-under record is 34-29 with 2 pushes. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Chicago Bulls. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/12 CHI63%3-23-21-4
3/15 CHA59%4-24-24-2
3/17 DET75%2-40-5-14-2
3/19 CLE75%5-13-31-5
3/21 SAC55%1-21-21-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 54% (#28 in League). The team has improved to 60.4% in their last 7 games. Despite the weak shooting %, they still average more points per game (107.3) than expected (106.6). On the road they average 105.3 (105.2 expected), and at home 109.3 ppg (108 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.5 true FG% (#17 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 61% in their last 7 games. They allow 106.6 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.2. They are allowing 106.5 (109.4 expected) on the road, and at home 106.7 ppg (106.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (BELOW AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounded by opponents by 0.6 per game (#16 in league). However, the team has recently outrebounded opponents by 6.

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.3 per game (#3 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Nikola Vucevic who is projected to be the #3 Center the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Nikola Vucevic1003Joel EmbiidRudy Gobert
Aaron Gordon9922Christian WoodKevin Love
Markelle Fultz8840Joe InglesElfrid Payton
Evan Fournier8849Tomas SatoranskyGoran Dragic
Terrence Ross6959Jae CrowderJerami Grant
D.J. Augustin2167Gary HarrisMonte Morris
Mohamed Bamba1732Enes KanterAlex Len
Michael Carter-Williams399Wesley MatthewsChris Chiozza
James Ennis194Derrick Jones Jr.Marvin Williams
Wesley Iwundu1104Kelan MartinJake Layman