SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS
The Rockets would have been wise to get over their chemistry issues from last season and just try to win in '19-20 with the same core. But clearly the Harden-Paul relationship was broken. The Rockets had the best record when Paul was healthy for the past 2 seasons. To think that Russell Westbrook would be a better POINT GUARD is crazy. Their odds to win it all are 8/1, 11.1% (#4). Their 5.3% chance is #8 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the West 10.3% of the time and are not a good value at 5/1, 16.7%. The Rockets are averaging 48.6 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 54.5 wins. Their playoff chances stand at 91.2% (62.6% to win the division). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the West.
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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES
They were expected to win 64% of their games last season so their 53-29 met expectations. They went 41-39-2 against the spread (-190 loss). More of their games came in under (42) than went over (37). They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Milwaukee Bucks. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).
|OPPONENT||SIM%||H2H WL||H2H ATS||H2H OU|
TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 58% (#2 in League). They average 113.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.3. On the road they average 111 (112.4 expected), and at home 116.8 ppg (114.2 expected).
DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.9 true FG% (#17 in League). They allow 109.1 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.9. They are allowing 108.6 (110.4 expected) on the road, and at home 109.7 ppg (107.4 expected).
REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 2.9 per game (#27 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.7 per game (#6 in league).
TEAM FANTASY LEADERS
The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by James Harden who is projected to be the #1 Guard. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.
|PLAYER||OWN%||RANK||BETTER OPTION||BETTER THAN|
|James Harden||100||1||--||Russell Westbrook|
|Russell Westbrook||100||2||James Harden||Bradley Beal|
|Clint N`Dumba-Capela||100||10||Marc Gasol||Hassan Whiteside|
|Eric Gordon||77||59||Fred VanVleet||D.J. Augustin|
|P.J. Tucker||19||74||DeAndre' Bembry||DeMarre Carroll|
|Austin Rivers||3||85||Luke Kennard||Bryn Forbes|
|Danuel House||4||99||Patty Mills||Carsen Edwards|
|Tyson Chandler||1||49||Mohamed Bamba||Luke Kornet|
|Thabo Sefolosha||0||122||Wilson Chandler||Torrey Craig|