NBA Outlook: The Dallas Mavericks are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Grizzlies and Behind the Thunder in the West

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 4 teams who have 40/1, 2.4% odds to win the championship. They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 0.2% chance is #13 in the league. In simulations, they win the West 0.6% of the time and are not a good value at 20/1, 4.8%. They are projected to win 47 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 42.5. They are making the playoffs. Their chances of winning the division stand at 29.9%. They were a +175 'underdog' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their preseason chances to win the division were 21.9% at 10/1, 9.1%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 40.1-25.9. At 39-27 they are in line with these expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be up big (+250 units). They are one of the best teams against the spread (34-29-3) for a 210 profit. Their over-under record is 39-26-1. Based on computer simulations they only have a 40% chance to beat the Nuggets in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/11 DEN40%1-42-32-3
3/14 PHO52%3-32-44-2
3/16 LAC32%2-42-42-4
3/17 SAC53%2-41-4-14-1-1
3/19 POR53%4-36-15-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 58.2% (#4 in League). They average 108.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 108.5. On the road they average 107.4 (106.9 expected), and at home 110.3 ppg (110.2 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55 true FG% (#9 in League). They allow 110.1 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.9. They are allowing 112.3 (112.5 expected) on the road, and at home 108 ppg (109.4 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They are outrebounding opponents by 1.6 per game (#12 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 1.3.

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.7 per game (#22 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Luka Doncic who is projected to be the #4 Forward the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Luka Doncic1004Giannis AntetokounmpoKawhi Leonard
Kristaps Porzingis10015LaMarcus AldridgeCaris LeVert
Tim Hardaway7953Kevin HuerterJordan Clarkson
Seth Curry4282Ish SmithKent Bazemore
Dorian Finney-Smith2082Michael Porter Jr.Justise Winslow
Maximilian Kleber3285Harry GilesTaj Gibson
Delon Wright15113T.J. McConnellDenzel Valentine
Jalen Brunson11118Jerome RobinsonMychal Mulder
Willie Cauley-Stein3045Chris BoucherWilly Hernangomez
Courtney Lee0140Matthew DellavedovaSterling Brown