NBA Outlook: The Houston Rockets are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Thunder and Behind the Jazz in the West

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 3 teams who have 20/1, 4.8% odds to win the championship. Their 0.8% chance is #10 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the West 2.5% of the time and are not a good value at 10/1, 9.1%. They are projected to win 49 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 54.5. They are making the playoffs. Their chances of winning the division stand at 70.1%. They were a -2500 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their preseason chances to win the division were 63.6% at 1/4, 80%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 42.8-21.2. They are coming up short of expectations at 40-24. Money line betters would be up big taking them in every game (+197 units). They are not good against the spread (30-34) for a -740 loss. Their under-over record is 36-27-1. In their next game vs the Lakers they are only winning 18% of the simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/12 LAL18%4-23-34-2
3/15 POR36%2-42-41-5
3/17 CLE70%2-11-22-1
3/19 SAC51%5-15-13-3
3/21 CHI64%3-02-11-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 57.8% (#5 in League). They average 113.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.3. On the road they average 111 (112.4 expected), and at home 116.8 ppg (114.2 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.2 true FG% (#16 in League). They allow 109.1 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.9. They are allowing 108.6 (110.4 expected) on the road, and at home 109.7 ppg (107.4 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 2.3 per game (#24 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1 per game (#7 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -0.3.

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Russell Westbrook who is projected to be the #1 Guard the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Russell Westbrook1001--James Harden
James Harden1002Russell WestbrookBradley Beal
Robert Covington9633Rui HachimuraMarquese Chriss
Eric Gordon4660Bruce BrownLuke Kennard
P.J. Tucker4173Trey LylesGorgui Dieng
Danuel House3079Kevin Porter Jr.Donte DiVincenzo
Jeff Green392Moritz WagnerDerrick Jones Jr.
Austin Rivers2116Glenn RobinsonJerome Robinson
Ben McLemore7124Terence DavisFrank Ntilikina
Bruno Caboclo1121Abdel NaderGrant Williams