NBA Outlook: The LA Clippers are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Nuggets and Behind the Lakers in the West


The Clippers are one of 2 teams tied for having the best chance to win the championship based on the odds (5/2, 28.6%). They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 17.9% chance is #3 in the league. In simulations, they win the West 29.9% of the time and are not a good value at 3/2, 40%. They are projected to win 55 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 52.5. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs, but they do not have a great chance of winning their division (11.9%). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #2 in the West.

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After 25 games, their expected win percentage is 64% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 18-7 record. Money line bettors backing them would be up 130 units on the season. They are one of the best teams against the spread (14-11) for a 190 profit. Their under-over record is 15-10. Their 48-34 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 42.4-39.6. They were very good against the spread going 44-36-2 for (+440 profit). They went over 44 times and came in under 36 times. Based on computer simulations they only have a 41% chance to beat the Raptors in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

12/11 TOR41%1-21-21-2
12/13 MIN65%2-12-12-1
12/14 CHI66%2-01-11-1
12/17 PHO76%4-13-23-2
12/19 HOU78%3-22-34-1


SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 56.1% (#13 in League). They average 115.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.8. On the road they average 112.4 (112.3 expected), and at home 117.9 ppg (115.2 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 53.7 true FG% (#5 in League). They allow 114.3 pts per game vs an expected value of 113.2. They are allowing 114 (114.5 expected) on the road, and at home 114.6 ppg (111.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +3.5 per game (#5 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.4 per game (#18 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 0.1.


The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Paul George who is projected to be the #5 Forward the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

Paul George1005Anthony DavisDomantas Sabonis
Kawhi Leonard1008Jimmy ButlerPascal Siakam
Louis Williams10023Jamal MurrayMalcolm Brogdon
Montrezl Harrell10010Deandre AytonAl Horford
Patrick Beverley5853Dejounte MurrayEric Gordon
Ivica Zubac2832Jusuf NurkicBismack Biyombo
Landry Shamet1198Justin HolidayGeorge Hill
JaMychal Green1489DeAndre' BembryMikal Bridges
Maurice Harkless5107Cameron JohnsonDoug McDermott
Rodney McGruder0119Darius BazleyCheick Diallo