NBA Outlook: The Memphis Grizzlies are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Pelicans and Behind the Mavericks in the West

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 500/1, 0.2% (#16). They win the championship in less than 0.1% of simulations. In simulations, they win the West 0.2% of the time and are not a good value at 250/1, 0.4%. Their pre-season futures line was 27.5 wins so they have hit the over. Their playoff chances stand at 47% (0% to win the division). Their average wins per simulation puts them at #8 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 65 games, their expected win percentage is 39% based on the money line odds. They are ahead of expectations with their 32-33 record. Money line betters would be up big taking them in every game (+1763 units). They are 34-30-1 against the spread for a 100 profit. Their under-over record is 34-31. In their next game vs the Trail Blazers they are only winning 33% of the simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/12 POR33%3-23-21-4
3/14 UTA28%4-34-33-4
3/16 SA39%4-35-24-3
3/17 OKC60%2-34-12-3
3/19 MIL23%1-21-22-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.1% (#19 in League). They average 103.5 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 103.5. On the road they average 102.5 (102.5 expected), and at home 104.6 ppg (104.6 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56 true FG% (#13 in League). Team defense is trending up holding opponents to 49.5% in their last 7 games. They allow 106.1 pts per game vs an expected value of 106.4. They are allowing 108.1 (107.9 expected) on the road, and at home 104.2 ppg (104.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They are outrebounding opponents by 1.8 per game (#10 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.5 per game (#20 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Ja Morant who is projected to be the #21 Guard the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Ja Morant10021Devonte GrahamJamal Murray
Jonas Valanciunas9910DeAndre JordanAl Horford
Jaren Jackson Jr.9539Miles BridgesDavis Bertans
Dillon Brooks7756Dario SaricEric Paschall
Gorgui Dieng3074P.J. TuckerJarrett Culver
Brandon Clarke6176Jarrett CulverTrevor Ariza
Josh Jackson2278Trevor ArizaMarkieff Morris
Tyus Jones1090Kentavious Caldwell-PopeShake Milton
Justise Winslow4683Dorian Finney-SmithHarry Giles
De`Anthony Melton1697Brandon KnightWesley Matthews