NBA Outlook: The Milwaukee Bucks are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Raptors in the East

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 11/4, 26.7% (#2). Their simulation based win percentage (24.9%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. In simulations, they win the East 42.1% of the time and are not a good value at 1/2, 66.7%. They are projected to win 65 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 57.5. The Bucks have won their division and are in the playoffs. They were a -10000 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their preseason chances to win the division were 71.3% at 1/20, 95.2%. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 54 games, their expected win percentage is 79% based on the money line odds. At 46-8 they ahead of expectations. Money line betters would be up big taking them in every game (+207 units). They are one of the best teams against the spread (31-23) for a 570 profit. Their over-under record is 26-25 with 3 pushes. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Detroit Pistons. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
2/20 DET84%10-09-15-4-1
2/22 PHI73%3-23-24-1
2/24 WAS66%3-13-13-1
2/25 TOR52%6-56-55-6
2/28 OKC66%1-20-32-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 58.6% (#1 in League). The team shooting has declined to 55.9% in their last 7 games. They average 118.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 116.5. On the road they average 116.4 (115.7 expected), and at home 119.9 ppg (117.3 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 52 true FG% (#1 in League). They allow 109.3 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.2. They are allowing 110.7 (111.7 expected) on the road, and at home 107.8 ppg (108.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +6 per game (#1 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.6 per game (#23 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Giannis Antetokounmpo who is projected to be the #2 Forward the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Giannis Antetokounmpo1002LeBron JamesLuka Doncic
Khris Middleton10014Jayson TatumJohn Collins
Eric Bledsoe9827Jaylen BrownBuddy Hield
Brook Lopez8120Cody ZellerMarc Gasol
Donte DiVincenzo2476Seth CurryKevin Porter Jr.
Wesley Matthews491Tyus JonesSvi Mykhailiuk
George Hill1098Glenn RobinsonDennis Smith Jr.
Marvin Williams1191Cody MartinJosh Jackson
Ersan Ilyasova398Derrick Jones Jr.Chandler Hutchison
Pat Connaughton1127Caleb MartinBrad Wanamaker