NBA Outlook: The Milwaukee Bucks are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Raptors in the East

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

Their odds to win it all are 3/1, 25% (#2). Their simulation based win percentage (21.4%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. In simulations, they win the East 46.6% of the time and are not a good value at 2/5, 71.4%. They are projected to win 65 games and go over their pre-season futures line of 57.5. The Bucks have won their division and are in the playoffs. They were a -10000 'favorite' to make the playoffs in the preseason. Their preseason chances to win the division were 71.3% at 1/20, 95.2%. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 65 games, their expected win percentage is 77% based on the money line odds. At 53-12 they are in line with these expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be down 18 units. They are one of the best teams against the spread (36-29) for a 410 profit. Their under-over record is 33-29 with 3 pushes. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Boston Celtics. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/12 BOS57%7-35-55-5
3/14 GS83%2-11-21-2
3/16 MIA80%3-33-31-5
3/19 MEM77%2-12-12-1
3/21 WAS74%4-13-24-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 58.3% (#3 in League). The team shooting has declined to 54.4% in their last 7 games. They average 118.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 116.5. On the road they average 116.4 (115.7 expected), and at home 119.9 ppg (117.3 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 52.2 true FG% (#1 in League). They allow 109.3 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.2. They are allowing 110.7 (111.7 expected) on the road, and at home 107.8 ppg (108.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +6 per game (#1 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.7 per game (#23 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Giannis Antetokounmpo who is projected to be the #3 Forward the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Giannis Antetokounmpo1003Anthony DavisLuka Doncic
Khris Middleton10019Julius RandleJohn Collins
Eric Bledsoe9833Victor OladipoCollin Sexton
Brook Lopez8122Tristan ThompsonIvica Zubac
Donte DiVincenzo3680Danuel HouseIsh Smith
Wesley Matthews598De`Anthony MeltonMichael Carter-Williams
George Hill10107Langston GallowayJordan Poole
Marvin Williams1195James EnnisAndre Iguodala
Ersan Ilyasova3101Juan Toscano-AndersonRondae Hollis-Jefferson
Pat Connaughton1131Timothe LuwawuRyan Arcidiacono