NBA Outlook: The New Orleans Pelicans are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Warriors and Behind the Spurs in the West

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

There are 4 teams who have 1000/1, 0.1% odds to win the championship. They do not win the championship in any simulations. They are not a good value to win the West either at 500/1, 0.2%. They are projected to win 27 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 39. Their playoff chances are under 1%. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #14 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Based on money line odds their expected record at this point of the season is 10-16. They are coming up well short of expectations with their 6-20 record. If you bet on them to win every game you would be down quite a bit (1358 units). They are not good against the spread (10-16) for a -760 loss. Their over-under record is 13-13. Their 33-49 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 37.4-44.6. They were not good against the spread going 38-43-1 (-930 loss). They went over 45 times and came in under 37 times. Based on computer simulations they only have a 42% chance to beat the Magic in their next game. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
12/15 ORL42%0-20-20-2
12/17 BKN43%1-20-33-0
12/18 MIN45%2-21-32-2
12/20 GS44%1-42-2-13-2
12/23 POR30%1-31-32-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 55.5% (#18 in League). Despite the weak shooting %, they still average more points per game (115.4) than expected (114.6). On the road they average 115.8 (113.9 expected), and at home 115.1 ppg (115.2 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 58.9 true FG% (#29 in League). They allow 116.8 pts per game vs an expected value of 116. They are allowing 117.5 (117.7 expected) on the road, and at home 116 ppg (114.3 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 2.4 per game (#22 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.7 per game (#23 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Jrue Holiday who is projected to be the #12 Guard the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Jrue Holiday10012Victor OladipoDonovan Mitchell
Brandon Ingram10010Kawhi LeonardAndrew Wiggins
Lonzo Ball9534Terry RozierDennis Schroder
Zion Williamson10032Bojan BogdanovicJohn Collins
J.J. Redick7757Alec BurksPatrick Beverley
Derrick Favors8367Otto PorterP.J. Tucker
Josh Hart4872Glenn RobinsonBruce Brown
Jaxson Hayes2734Ivica ZubacMason Plumlee
Kenrich Williams7100Reggie BullockChristian Wood
Jahlil Okafor845John HensonRobin Lopez