NBA Outlook: The Philadelphia 76ers are Projected to Finish Ahead of the Pacers and Behind the Heat in the East

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

They are one of 4 teams with 40/1, 2.4% odds to win the championship. Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 0.9% chance is #9 in the league. In simulations, they win the East 5% of the time and are not a good value at 12/1, 7.7%. They are projected to win 49 games and come in under their pre-season futures line of 55. They are basically a lock to make the playoffs despite not having much of a chance to win the division. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #5 in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

After 64 games, their expected win percentage is 60% based on the money line odds. At 38-26 they are in line with these expectations. If you bet on them to win every game you would be down quite a bit (687 units). They are not good against the spread (29-35) for a -950 loss. Their over-under record is 32-30 with 2 pushes. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Detroit Pistons. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
3/11 DET87%5-15-14-2
3/14 IND52%4-33-41-5-1
3/16 WAS86%3-23-23-2
3/18 TOR59%5-96-84-9-1
3/19 CHA61%5-02-34-1

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.1% (#21 in League). The team has improved to 59.2% in their last 7 games. Despite the weak shooting %, they still average more points per game (115.2) than expected (114.7). On the road they average 112.1 (113.1 expected), and at home 118.2 ppg (116.4 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55.8 true FG% (#11 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 61.7% in their last 7 games. They allow 112.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 111.4. They are allowing 114.8 (113 expected) on the road, and at home 110.2 ppg (109.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +3.4 per game (#3 in league).

TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.2 per game (#15 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Joel Embiid who is projected to be the #2 Center the rest of the season. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Joel Embiid1002Nikola JokicNikola Vucevic
Ben Simmons9914Donovan MitchellKyle Lowry
Tobias Harris10017Caris LeVertJulius Randle
Al Horford9811Jonas ValanciunasMyles Turner
Josh Richardson8344Buddy HieldShabazz Napier
Alec Burks4585Troy BrownJeff Teague
Shake Milton6991Tyus JonesJustin Holiday
Furkan Korkmaz16109Jordan PooleKy Bowman
Glenn Robinson26115Denzel ValentineAustin Rivers
Mike Scott2106Jake LaymanMeyers Leonard