NBA Picks: A Lot of Strong Values Like Nets -1, Warriors -6

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Friday, January 18, 2019

Memphis Grizzlies vs Boston Celtics

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Celtics over the Grizzlies. The projected score is Celtics 109 and Grizzlies 98, and Boston is winning 76% of the sims. The Celtics are -625 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 86 percent. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Celtics going 5-0. In these games the Celtics averaged 110 points per game and the Grizzlies 101. The projection based point spread is BOS -11.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -10.5. The Celtics have a record of 21-16-0 as a favorite. The Grizzlies have a record of 9-18-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Celtics are 4-1-0 against the spread vs the Grizzlies. The Celtics were favored by an average of -6.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 8.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Memphis Grizzlies205.597.597.917%24%101.2 (0 Wins)
Boston Celtics-10.5108.0109.283%76%109.6 (5 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Heat are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Heat 104 and Pistons 103, and Miami is winning 51% of simulations. The Pistons are -128 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 56 percent. Head-to-head, the Heat are 5-4. In these games the Pistons averaged 106 points per game and the Heat 105. The projection based point spread is MIA -1. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -2. The Pistons have a record of 7-8-0 as a favorite. The Heat have a record of 14-6-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Heat have the ATS edge head to head going 5-4-0 vs the Pistons. The Pistons were favored by an average of -1.3 points in these games and they won by an average of 1.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Heat207.5102.8104.345%51%104.6 (5 Wins)
Detroit Pistons-2.0104.7103.955%49%105.7 (4 Wins)

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Brooklyn Nets vs Orlando Magic

The simulations slightly favor the Nets who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Nets 107 and Magic 98, with Brooklyn being given a 72% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Magic is -108 which translates to 52 percent (chance of winning). Bettors seem to be favoring the Magic since the moneyline is moving that way. Head-to-head, the Nets are 4-3. In these games, the Nets averaged 114 and the Magic 113 ppg. The computer would set the spread at BKN -9. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening ORL +1. The Nets have a record of 7-4-0 as a favorite. The Magic have a record of 17-16-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Nets have the ATS edge head to head going 5-1-1 vs the Magic. The Magic were favored by an average of -0.4 points in these games but the Nets won by an average of 0.9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Brooklyn Nets216108.5107.149%72%113.6 (4 Wins)
Orlando Magic+1.0107.598.351%28%112.7 (3 Wins)

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San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves

The odds favor the Timberwolves, and the sims are solidly on the Timberwolves as well. The projected score is Timberwolves 116 and Spurs 109, and Minnesota is winning 68% of the sims. The moneyline for the Timberwolves is -108 which translates to 52 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Spurs are up in this matchup recently going 4-2. In these games, the Spurs averaged 106 and the Timberwolves 105 ppg. The projection based point spread is MIN -7. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -1. The Timberwolves have a record of 12-9-0 as a favorite. The Spurs have a record of 13-9-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Spurs have the ATS edge head to head going 4-2-0 vs the Timberwolves. The average point spread in these games was Spurs -0.4 and they won by an average of 0.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Antonio Spurs224.5111.8109.149%32%105.8 (4 Wins)
Minnesota Timberwolves-1.0112.7116.151%68%105.3 (2 Wins)

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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Utah Jazz

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Jazz to win the game. The projected score is Jazz 114 and Cavaliers 96, and Utah is winning 87% of simulations. The moneyline for the Jazz is -2000 which translates to 95 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Head-to-head, the Jazz are 3-2. In these games the Jazz averaged 101 points per game and the Cavaliers 97. The projection based point spread is UTA -18. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -15. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Jazz are 16-16-0. As an underdog, the Cavaliers are 19-22-0. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Jazz have the ATS edge head to head going 4-0-1 vs the Cavaliers. The average point spread in these games was Cavaliers -2.3 but the Jazz won by an average of 4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cleveland Cavaliers214.599.896.58%13%96.8 (2 Wins)
Utah Jazz-15.0114.7114.392%87%100.8 (3 Wins)

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Golden State Warriors vs LA Clippers

The Warriors are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Warriors 126 and Clippers 114, with Golden State being given a 76% chance of winning. At -261 on the moneyline, the Warriors implied probability to win is 72 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Warriors since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. The Warriors have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2. In these games, the Warriors averaged 124 and the Clippers 120 ppg. The projection based point spread is GS -12. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening LAC +6. The Warriors have a record of 17-22-1 as a favorite. The Clippers have a record of 6-11-1 as an underdog. While they may be 2-4 straight up in previous matchups, the Clippers have been better against the spread. The Clippers are 4-2-0 against the spread vs the Warriors. The average point spread in these games was Warriors -8.5 and they won by an average of 4.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Golden State Warriors241.5123.8125.671%76%124.5 (4 Wins)
LA Clippers+6.0117.7113.829%24%119.7 (2 Wins)

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New Orleans Pelicans vs Portland Trail Blazers

The odds favor the Trail Blazers, and the sims are solidly on the Trail Blazers as well. The projected score is Trail Blazers 118 and Pelicans 111, and Portland is winning 69% of the sims. The Trail Blazers are -150 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 60 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Pelicans going 9-4. In these games, the Pelicans averaged 110 and the Trail Blazers 107 ppg. The computer would set the spread at POR -7.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Trail Blazers are 16-11-0. As an underdog, the Pelicans are 7-10-1. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Pelicans are 9-4-0 against the spread vs the Trail Blazers. The Trail Blazers were favored by an average of -2.1 points in these games but the Pelicans won by an average of 3.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Pelicans233.5115.2110.642%31%110.4 (9 Wins)
Portland Trail Blazers-3.0118.3117.958%69%106.9 (4 Wins)

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Saturday, January 19, 2019

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Philadelphia 76ers

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the 76ers are favored. The projected score is 76ers 116 and Thunder 107, with Philadelphia winning 70% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Thunder going 4-0. In these games, the Thunder averaged 116 and the 76ers 106 ppg. The computer would set the spread at PHI -8.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The 76ers have a record of 16-16-0 as a favorite. The Thunder have a record of 14-11-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Thunder are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the 76ers. The average point spread in these games was Thunder -5.8 and they won by an average of 10.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Oklahoma City Thunder----107.1--30%116.5 (4 Wins)
Philadelphia 76ers----115.6--70%105.8 (0 Wins)

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Phoenix Suns vs Charlotte Hornets

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Hornets are favored. The projected score is Hornets 112 and Suns 110, with Charlotte winning 57% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Hornets going 4-1. In these games the Hornets averaged 116 points per game and the Suns 113. The projection based point spread is CHA -2.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Hornets are 12-13-0. As an underdog, the Suns are 21-23-0. While they may be 1-4 straight up vs the Hornets, the Suns have been better against the spread. The Suns are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Hornets. The Hornets were favored by an average of -6.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Phoenix Suns----109.7--43%112.8 (1 Win)
Charlotte Hornets----112.3--57%115.8 (4 Wins)

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Sacramento Kings vs Detroit Pistons

The current simulations favor the Pistons, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Pistons 113 and Kings 110, and Detroit is winning 57% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. Head-to-head, the Kings are 3-2. In these games the Pistons averaged 103 points per game and the Kings 102. The computer would set the spread at DET -3. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Pistons have a record of 7-8-0 as a favorite. The Kings have a record of 17-16-1 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Kings have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-1 vs the Pistons. The Pistons were favored by an average of -1.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 0.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Sacramento Kings----110.3--43%102.0 (3 Wins)
Detroit Pistons----113.3--57%102.8 (2 Wins)

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Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Pacers are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Pacers 109 and Mavericks 100, and Indiana is winning 71% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Mavericks are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games, the Mavericks averaged 110 and the Pacers 108 ppg. The computer would set the spread at IND -9. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Pacers have a record of 14-14-1 as a favorite. The Mavericks have a record of 18-9-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Mavericks have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Pacers. The Pacers were favored by an average of -3.9 points in these games but the Mavericks won by an average of 2.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Mavericks----100.1--29%109.8 (3 Wins)
Indiana Pacers----109.0--71%107.5 (1 Win)

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Milwaukee Bucks vs Orlando Magic

The current simulations favor the Bucks, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Bucks 109 and Magic 99, with Milwaukee being given a 73% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Bucks have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-2 record. In these games, the Bucks averaged 106 and the Magic 101 ppg. The projection based point spread is MIL -10. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Magic are 4-6-1. As an underdog, the Bucks are 19-23-1. Both have covered 4 times head-to-head. The average point spread in these games was Bucks -6.7 and they won by an average of 4.9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Bucks----108.7--73%105.8 (6 Wins)
Orlando Magic----98.9--27%100.9 (2 Wins)

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Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Celtics are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Celtics 120 and Hawks 110, with Boston being given a 72% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Celtics going 5-1. In these games, the Celtics averaged 115 and the Hawks 105 ppg. The computer would set the spread at BOS -10. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Hawks have a record of 6-8-0 as a favorite. The Celtics have a record of 26-16-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Celtics are 4-2-0 against the spread vs the Hawks. The average point spread in these games was Celtics -8.4 and they won by an average of 9.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Celtics----120.4--72%114.7 (5 Wins)
Atlanta Hawks----110.3--28%105.3 (1 Win)

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Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Raptors are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Raptors 111 and Grizzlies 100, and Toronto is winning 74% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Raptors have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games the Raptors averaged 112 points per game and the Grizzlies 103. The projection based point spread is TOR -10.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Raptors have a record of 14-22-1 as a favorite. The Grizzlies have a record of 9-18-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Raptors have the ATS edge head to head going 5-0-0 vs the Grizzlies. The Raptors were favored by an average of -6 points in these games and they won by an average of 9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Memphis Grizzlies----100.1--26%102.6 (1 Win)
Toronto Raptors----110.7--74%111.6 (4 Wins)

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Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Heat are favored. The projected score is Heat 108 and Bulls 99, with Miami winning 74% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Heat are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. In these games, the Heat averaged 101 and the Bulls 98 ppg. The computer would set the spread at MIA -10. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Bulls have a record of 6-4-0 as a favorite. The Heat have a record of 14-6-0 as an underdog. While they may be 3-5 straight up in previous matchups, the Bulls have been better against the spread. The Bulls have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Heat. The average point spread in these games was Heat -2.2 and they won by an average of 3.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Heat----108.5--74%101.1 (5 Wins)
Chicago Bulls----98.6--26%97.8 (3 Wins)

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LA Lakers vs Houston Rockets

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Lakers are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Lakers 114 and Rockets 111, and Los Angeles is winning 57% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Rockets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-2 record. In these games the Rockets averaged 125 points per game and the Lakers 111. The projection based point spread is LAL -2.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rockets are 18-17-0. As an underdog, the Lakers are 7-8-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Rockets have the ATS edge head to head going 5-4-0 vs the Lakers. The Rockets were favored by an average of -10.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 13.9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
LA Lakers----113.8--57%111.0 (2 Wins)
Houston Rockets----111.1--43%124.9 (7 Wins)

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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Denver Nuggets

The current simulations favor the Nuggets, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Nuggets 117 and Cavaliers 99, and Denver is winning 88% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In their last 5 matchups the Nuggets are 3-2. In these games the Nuggets averaged 116 points per game and the Cavaliers 112. The computer would set the spread at DEN -18. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Nuggets have a record of 17-13-0 as a favorite. The Cavaliers have a record of 19-22-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Nuggets are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Cavaliers. The average point spread in these games was Cavaliers -1.8 but the Nuggets won by an average of 4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cleveland Cavaliers----99.1--12%111.8 (2 Wins)
Denver Nuggets----117.1--88%115.8 (3 Wins)

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