NBA Picks: Can Thunder Keep Winning Without Russell Westbrook?

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Thursday, November 08, 2018

Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Rockets. The projected score is Rockets 108 and Thunder 107, and Houston is winning 51% of simulations. The Rockets are -190 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 66 percent. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Rockets going 8-4. In these games, the Rockets averaged 113 and the Thunder 108 ppg. The computer would set the spread at HOU -1. With more action on the Thunder side, the line has adjusted from +4.5 to +4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rockets are 48-44-2. As an underdog, the Thunder are 11-10-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Rockets are 7-5-0 against the spread vs the Thunder. The average point spread in these games was Rockets -3.3 and they won by an average of 4.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Rockets214109.0108.163%51%112.9 (8 Wins)
Oklahoma City Thunder+4.0105.0107.237%49%108.2 (4 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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Boston Celtics vs Phoenix Suns

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Celtics over the Suns despite being on the road. The projected score is Celtics 113 and Suns 100, with Boston being given a 78% chance of winning. At -500 on the moneyline, the Celtics implied probability to win is 83 percent. The Celtics have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games, the Celtics averaged 114 and the Suns 108 ppg. The computer would set the spread at BOS -12.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening PHO +9.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Celtics are 41-30-2. As an underdog, the Suns are 4-6-0. While they may be 1-3 straight up in previous matchups, the Suns have been better against the spread. The Suns are 4-0-0 against the spread vs the Celtics. The average point spread in these games was Celtics -10.6 and they won by an average of 5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Celtics214.5112.0112.980%78%113.5 (3 Wins)
Phoenix Suns+9.5102.5100.220%22%108.5 (1 Win)

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LA Clippers vs Portland Trail Blazers

The odds favor the Trail Blazers, and the sims are solidly on the Trail Blazers as well. The projected score is Trail Blazers 116 and Clippers 110, and Portland is winning 66% of the sims. At -220 on the moneyline, the Trail Blazers implied proability to win is 69 percent. In their last 7 matchups the Clippers are 4-3. In these games, the Clippers averaged 107 and the Trail Blazers 106 ppg. The projection based point spread is POR -6.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Trail Blazers as the Vegas line has moved from -5 to -5.5. The Trail Blazers have a record of 33-25-3 as a favorite. The Clippers have a record of 21-27-0 as an underdog. The Trail Blazers have been better against the spread than straight up in previous matchups. The Trail Blazers are 4-3-0 against the spread vs the Clippers. The average point spread in these games was Clippers -2 and they won by an average of 1.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
LA Clippers224.5109.5109.634%34%107.3 (4 Wins)
Portland Trail Blazers-5.5115.0116.066%66%105.7 (3 Wins)

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Milwaukee Bucks vs Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Warriors 124 and Bucks 113, and Golden State is winning 79% of simulations. The Warriors are -260 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 72 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Warriors have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games the Warriors averaged 114 points per game and the Bucks 106. The projection based point spread is GS -11.5. Bettors seem to be favoring the Bucks with the Vegas moving from +6.5 to +5.5. The Warriors have a record of 7-4-0 as a favorite. The Bucks have a record of 16-23-1 as an underdog. They both covered the spread 2 times in their last few matchups. The Warriors were favored by an average of -7 points in these games and they won by an average of 8.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Bucks240117.2112.830%21%105.8 (1 Win)
Golden State Warriors-5.5122.8124.370%79%114.0 (3 Wins)

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Friday, November 09, 2018

Washington Wizards vs Orlando Magic

The simulations slightly favor the Magic who are actually the underdogs according to Vegas odds. The projected score is Magic 113 and Wizards 109, with Orlando winning 61% of the time. The moneyline for the Wizards is -140 which translates to 58 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Wizards have the recent head-to-head edge going 5-3. In these games, the Wizards averaged 109 and the Magic 105 ppg. The computer would set the spread at ORL -3.5. With more action on the Magic side, the line has adjusted from +3 to +2.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Wizards are 20-38-1. As an underdog, the Magic are 37-38-1. They both covered the spread 4 times in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Wizards -5.6 and they won by an average of 4.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Wizards218110.2109.457%39%109.1 (5 Wins)
Orlando Magic+2.5107.8112.943%61%104.8 (3 Wins)

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Charlotte Hornets vs Philadelphia 76ers

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the 76ers to win the game. The projected score is 76ers 115 and Hornets 107, and Philadelphia is winning 68% of simulations. At -225 on the moneyline, the 76ers implied proability to win is 69 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the 76ers going 7-1. In these games the 76ers averaged 109 points per game and the Hornets 102. The projection based point spread is PHI -7.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -5.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the 76ers are 42-30-1. As an underdog, the Hornets are 13-26-3. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The 76ers are 6-2-0 against the spread vs the Hornets. The average point spread in these games was Hornets -0.6 but the 76ers won by an average of 7.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Charlotte Hornets225109.8107.032%32%101.6 (1 Win)
Philadelphia 76ers-5.5115.2114.768%68%108.8 (7 Wins)

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Detroit Pistons vs Atlanta Hawks

The odds favor the Pistons, and the sims are solidly on the Pistons as well. The projected score is Pistons 112 and Hawks 102, with Detroit winning 77% of the latest sims. The Pistons are -193 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 66 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Pistons going 5-2. In these games, the Pistons averaged 110 and the Hawks 99 ppg. The projection based point spread is DET -11. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening ATL +5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Pistons are 21-25-2. As an underdog, the Hawks are 4-6-0. The Hawks have been better against the spread than straight up in previous matchups. The Hawks are 4-3-0 against the spread vs the Pistons. The average point spread in these games was Pistons -2.8 and they won by an average of 10.9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Pistons224114.5112.564%77%110.3 (5 Wins)
Atlanta Hawks+5.0109.5101.536%23%99.4 (2 Wins)

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Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat

The current simulations slightly favor the Heat, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Heat 108 and Pacers 107, and Miami is winning 52% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In their last 7 matchups the Heat are 4-3. Both teams have averaged 105 points in these games. The projection based point spread is MIA -1. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Heat are 20-24-3. As an underdog, the Pacers are 28-25-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Heat are 4-3-0 against the spread vs the Pacers. The Heat were favored by an average of -0.6 points in these games and they won by an average of 0.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Indiana Pacers----108.0--48%104.7 (3 Wins)
Miami Heat----108.5--52%104.9 (4 Wins)

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Brooklyn Nets vs Denver Nuggets

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Nuggets over the Nets. The projected score is Nuggets 114 and Nets 106, with Denver winning 69% of the time. At -492 on the moneyline, the Nuggets implied proability to win is 83 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. The Nuggets are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games the Nuggets averaged 119 points per game and the Nets 110. The projection based point spread is DEN -8. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -9.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Nuggets are 6-4-0. As an underdog, the Nets are 41-29-1. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The Nuggets were favored by an average of -8.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 9 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Brooklyn Nets210.5100.5105.519%31%110.0 (1 Win)
Denver Nuggets-9.5110.0113.781%69%119.0 (3 Wins)

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Boston Celtics vs Utah Jazz

Even though they are not favored to win based on the latest odds, the Celtics are the slight simulation favorite. The projected score is Celtics 104 and Jazz 101, with Boston winning 55% of the latest sims. At -154 on the moneyline, the Jazz implied proability to win is 61 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Celtics are up in this matchup recently going 3-1. In these games, the Celtics averaged 105 and the Jazz 102 ppg. The computer would set the spread at BOS -3. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -3. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Jazz are 29-27-1. As an underdog, the Celtics are 24-13-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Celtics have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Jazz. The Jazz were favored by an average of -1.8 points in these games but the Celtics won by an average of 2.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Celtics209103.0104.341%55%104.8 (3 Wins)
Utah Jazz-3.0106.0101.359%45%102.2 (1 Win)

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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Sacramento Kings

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Timberwolves are winning a slight majority of simulations. The projected score is Timberwolves 115 and Kings 114, and Minnesota is winning 51% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In their last 7 matchups the Timberwolves are 4-3. In these games, the Timberwolves averaged 111 and the Kings 104 ppg. The computer would set the spread at MIN -1. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Kings have a record of 7-6-1 as a favorite. The Timberwolves have a record of 4-6-0 as an underdog. The Kings have been better against the spread than straight up in previous matchups. The Kings are 4-3-0 against the spread vs the Timberwolves. The average point spread in these games was Timberwolves -7.1 and they won by an average of 6.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Minnesota Timberwolves----115.2--51%110.7 (4 Wins)
Sacramento Kings----114.5--49%104.0 (3 Wins)

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