NBA Picks: Slight Lean on Portland ATS vs Warriors and the Over

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Thursday, May 16, 2019

Portland Trail Blazers vs Golden State Warriors

The odds and our simulations heavily favor the Warriors over the Trail Blazers. The projected score is Warriors 115 and Trail Blazers 108, and Golden State is winning 66% of the sims. At -345 on the moneyline, the Warriors implied probability to win is 78 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Warriors averaged 114 points per game and the Trail Blazers 111. The projection based point spread is GS -7. With more action on the Trail Blazers, oddsmakers have moved the line from +8 to +7.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Warriors are 36-49-1. As an underdog, the Trail Blazers are 17-20-0. The Trail Blazers have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Warriors. The Warriors were favored by an average of -4.7 points in these games and they won by an average of 2.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Portland Trail Blazers218105.2107.626%34%110.9 (4 Wins)
Golden State Warriors-7.5112.8114.874%66%113.5 (4 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

Friday, May 17, 2019

Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Bucks 110 and Raptors 106, and Milwaukee is winning 61% of simulations. The moneyline for the Bucks is -278 which translates to 74 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Bucks are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. In these games the Bucks averaged 114 points per game and the Raptors 113. The computer would set the spread at MIL -4. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -6.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Bucks are 47-31-3. As an underdog, the Raptors are 10-7-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Bucks have the ATS edge head to head going 6-2-0 vs the Raptors. The average point spread in these games was Raptors -1.2 but the Bucks won by an average of 1.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Raptors215.5104.5105.729%39%112.8 (3 Wins)
Milwaukee Bucks-6.5111.0109.571%61%114.5 (5 Wins)