NBA Picks: Take Pacers at Home vs Charlotte…and Over in Clippers-Wolves

Welcome to the newly updated version of Scout. We have decided to embrace our name and re-launch as a sports forecasting and statistics service geared towards delivering Scouting Reports for every league, team and fantasy relevant player. Our league reports focus on Power Rankings, Injuries, Season Futures, and coverage of every Fantasy 'market' (season, current week, DFS). We encourage you to check out our new NBA page and hope you enjoy the new Scout.

Monday, February 11, 2019

New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Knicks as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Knicks 103 and Cavaliers 102, and New York is winning 54% of simulations. The moneyline for the Cavaliers is -120 which translates to 55 percent (chance of winning). People are betting more heavily on the Cavaliers based on how the moneyline is moving. The Cavaliers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-2 record. In these games the Cavaliers averaged 112 points per game and the Knicks 103. The computer would set the spread at NY -1.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Cavaliers are 25-52-1. As an underdog, the Knicks are 20-23-3. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Cavaliers have the ATS edge head to head going 6-3-0 vs the Knicks. The Cavaliers were favored by an average of -7.4 points in these games and they won by an average of 8.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New York Knicks211104.8103.148%54%103.3 (2 Wins)
Cleveland Cavaliers-1.5106.2101.652%46%111.8 (7 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

Stream the New York vs Cleveland game with SlingTV

Washington Wizards vs Detroit Pistons

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds favor the Pistons. The projected score is Pistons 115 and Wizards 114, and Detroit is winning 51% of the sims. At -175 on the moneyline, the Pistons implied probability to win is 64 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Wizards are up in this matchup recently going 4-2. In these games, the Wizards averaged 106 and the Pistons 102 ppg. The computer would set the spread at DET 0. More of the action seems to be on the Pistons with the Vegas line moving from -3.5 to -4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Pistons are 10-10-0. As an underdog, the Wizards are 12-17-0. Both have covered 3 times head-to-head. The average point spread in these games was Wizards -1.5 and they won by an average of 3.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Washington Wizards220108.0115.039%49%105.7 (4 Wins)
Detroit Pistons-4.0112.0115.261%51%102.0 (2 Wins)

Stream the Washington vs Detroit game with SlingTV

Charlotte Hornets vs Indiana Pacers

The odds favor the Pacers, and the sims are solidly on the Pacers as well. The projected score is Pacers 111 and Hornets 100, and Indiana is winning 77% of simulations. At -220 on the moneyline, the Pacers implied probability to win is 69 percent. They both have 3 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Hornets averaged 114 and the Pacers 113 ppg. The computer would set the spread at IND -11. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Pacers are 18-17-1. As an underdog, the Hornets are 12-12-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. They both covered the spread 3 times in their last few matchups. The Pacers were favored by an average of -1 points in these games but the Hornets won by an average of 1.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Charlotte Hornets217.5106.2100.134%23%114.5 (3 Wins)
Indiana Pacers-5.0111.3111.166%77%112.7 (3 Wins)

Stream the Charlotte vs Indiana game with SlingTV

Brooklyn Nets vs Toronto Raptors

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Raptors to win the game. The projected score is Raptors 114 and Nets 105, and Toronto is winning 73% of simulations. The Raptors are -560 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 85 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Raptors going 5-1. In these games the Raptors averaged 116 points per game and the Nets 104. The computer would set the spread at TOR -9. Bettors seem to be favoring the Nets with the Vegas moving from +11 to +10.5. The Raptors have a record of 18-26-1 as a favorite. The Nets have a record of 21-19-0 as an underdog. They both covered the spread 3 times in their last few matchups. The Raptors were favored by an average of -9.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 11.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Brooklyn Nets226.5108.0104.618%27%104.2 (1 Win)
Toronto Raptors-10.5118.5113.882%73%115.5 (5 Wins)

Stream the Brooklyn vs Toronto game with SlingTV

Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Bucks to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Bucks 117 and Bulls 102, with Milwaukee winning 83% of the latest sims. The Bucks are -455 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 82 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Bulls since the moneyline is moving that way. The Bucks have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2. In these games, the Bucks averaged 114 and the Bulls 108 ppg. The computer would set the spread at MIL -15. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening CHI +9.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Bucks are 27-20-2. As an underdog, the Bulls are 23-28-1. They both covered the spread 3 times in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Bucks -8.7 and they won by an average of 5.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Bucks218.5114.0117.379%83%113.7 (4 Wins)
Chicago Bulls+9.5104.5102.221%17%108.0 (2 Wins)

Stream the Milwaukee vs Chicago game with SlingTV

Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets

The odds and our simulations favor the Rockets over the Mavericks. The projected score is Rockets 112 and Mavericks 108, and Houston is winning 61% of the sims. The moneyline for the Rockets is -455 which translates to 82 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Mavericks to win. The Rockets are up in this matchup recently going 4-2. In these games the Rockets averaged 105 points per game and the Mavericks 100. The computer would set the spread at HOU -4.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -9.5. The Rockets have a record of 19-23-0 as a favorite. The Mavericks have a record of 22-11-0 as an underdog. Both have covered 3 times head-to-head. The Rockets were favored by an average of -8.7 points in these games and they won by an average of 5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Dallas Mavericks220.5105.5107.821%39%100.3 (2 Wins)
Houston Rockets-9.5115.0112.579%61%105.3 (4 Wins)

Stream the Dallas vs Houston game with SlingTV

LA Clippers vs Minnesota Timberwolves

The odds favor the Timberwolves, and the sims are solidly on the Timberwolves as well. The projected score is Timberwolves 119 and Clippers 111, with Minnesota winning 69% of the time. At -195 on the moneyline, the Timberwolves implied probability to win is 66 percent. Bettors seem to be favoring the Clippers since the moneyline is moving in their 'direction'. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Timberwolves going 6-2. In these games the Timberwolves averaged 112 points per game and the Clippers 109. The projection based point spread is MIN -8. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -4.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Timberwolves are 13-14-0. As an underdog, the Clippers are 11-16-1. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Timberwolves are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Clippers. The Timberwolves were favored by an average of -0.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 3.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
LA Clippers222.5109.0111.237%31%108.9 (2 Wins)
Minnesota Timberwolves-4.5113.5119.463%69%112.4 (6 Wins)

Stream the Los Angeles vs Minnesota game with SlingTV

Portland Trail Blazers vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Both the simulations and the betting lines are on the Thunder to win the game. The projected score is Thunder 122 and Trail Blazers 118, and Oklahoma City is winning 61% of the sims. At -270 on the moneyline, the Thunder implied probability to win is 73 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Trail Blazers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-3 record. In these games, the Trail Blazers averaged 111 and the Thunder 107 ppg. The computer would set the spread at OKC -4.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -6.5. The Thunder have a record of 23-18-1 as a favorite. The Trail Blazers have a record of 10-12-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Trail Blazers have the ATS edge head to head going 7-3-0 vs the Thunder. The Thunder were favored by an average of -2.4 points in these games but the Trail Blazers won by an average of 3.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Portland Trail Blazers231112.2117.730%39%111.2 (7 Wins)
Oklahoma City Thunder-6.5118.8122.470%61%107.4 (3 Wins)

Stream the Portland vs Oklahoma City game with SlingTV

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Nuggets 114 and Heat 102, with Denver winning 76% of the time. The Nuggets are -500 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 83 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Head-to-head, the Nuggets are 3-2. In these games, the Heat averaged 112 and the Nuggets 111 ppg. The projection based point spread is DEN -11.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -10. The Nuggets have a record of 21-17-0 as a favorite. The Heat have a record of 17-9-0 as an underdog. The Heat have been better against the spread than straight up vs the Nuggets. The Heat have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Nuggets. The Nuggets were favored by an average of -1 points in these games but the Heat won by an average of 1.6 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Miami Heat212.5101.2102.120%24%112.2 (2 Wins)
Denver Nuggets-10.0111.3113.680%76%110.6 (3 Wins)

Stream the Miami vs Denver game with SlingTV

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

LA Lakers vs Atlanta Hawks

The current simulations favor the Lakers, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Lakers 125 and Hawks 118, and Los Angeles is winning 65% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Lakers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-0 record. In these games, the Lakers averaged 119 and the Hawks 107 ppg. The computer would set the spread at LAL -6.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Hawks have a record of 6-9-0 as a favorite. The Lakers have a record of 10-11-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Lakers have the ATS edge head to head going 4-1-0 vs the Hawks. The Hawks were favored by an average of -0.2 points in these games but the Lakers won by an average of 12.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
LA Lakers----124.8--65%118.8 (5 Wins)
Atlanta Hawks----118.4--35%106.6 (0 Wins)

Stream the Los Angeles vs Atlanta game with SlingTV

San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Spurs are favored. The projected score is Spurs 106 and Grizzlies 104, with San Antonio being given a 55% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Spurs going 5-2. In these games, the Spurs averaged 101 and the Grizzlies 92 ppg. The projection based point spread is SA -2. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Grizzlies have a record of 11-11-0 as a favorite. The Spurs have a record of 15-12-0 as an underdog. They both covered the spread 3 times in their last few matchups with one push. The average point spread in these games was Spurs -5.9 and they won by an average of 8.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
San Antonio Spurs----106.1--55%100.6 (5 Wins)
Memphis Grizzlies----104.0--46%92.1 (2 Wins)

Stream the San Antonio vs Memphis game with SlingTV

Orlando Magic vs New Orleans Pelicans

The current simulations slightly favor the Pelicans, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Pelicans 112 and Magic 110, with New Orleans winning 54% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Pelicans averaged 102 points per game and the Magic 100. The projection based point spread is NO -2. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Pelicans have a record of 13-15-0 as a favorite. The Magic have a record of 21-18-1 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Pelicans are 2-1-1 against the spread vs the Magic. The Pelicans were favored by an average of -2.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 2.8 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Orlando Magic----110.4--46%99.8 (2 Wins)
New Orleans Pelicans----112.2--54%102.5 (2 Wins)

Stream the Orlando vs New Orleans game with SlingTV

Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the 76ers are favored. The projected score is 76ers 119 and Celtics 113, with Philadelphia winning 63% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Celtics going 9-2. In these games, the Celtics averaged 106 and the 76ers 100 ppg. The computer would set the spread at PHI -5.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The 76ers have a record of 20-20-0 as a favorite. The Celtics have a record of 26-17-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Celtics are 9-2-0 against the spread vs the 76ers. The 76ers were favored by an average of -0.4 points in these games but the Celtics won by an average of 5.7 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Celtics----113.4--37%105.6 (9 Wins)
Philadelphia 76ers----118.8--63%99.9 (2 Wins)

Stream the Boston vs Philadelphia game with SlingTV

Utah Jazz vs Golden State Warriors

The current simulations favor the Warriors, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Warriors 115 and Jazz 105, and Golden State is winning 73% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Jazz have the recent head-to-head edge going 4-2. In these games, the Jazz averaged 115 and the Warriors 104 ppg. The projection based point spread is GS -10. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Warriors have a record of 22-27-1 as a favorite. The Jazz have a record of 7-7-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Jazz are 5-1-0 against the spread vs the Warriors. The Warriors were favored by an average of -1.2 points in these games but the Jazz won by an average of 11.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Utah Jazz----105.3--27%115.0 (4 Wins)
Golden State Warriors----115.1--73%103.7 (2 Wins)

Stream the Utah vs Golden State game with SlingTV