NBA Picks: Take Road Favorite Houston Rockets -5.5 at Orlando and Home Favorite Nuggets -4.0 vs Portland

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks

The 76ers are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is 76ers 111 and Knicks 109, and Philadelphia is winning 54% of simulations. At -303 on the moneyline, the 76ers implied probability to win is 75 percent. People are betting more heavily on the 76ers based on how the moneyline is moving. The 76ers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-0 record. In these games, the 76ers averaged 116 and the Knicks 100 ppg. The computer would set the spread at PHI -1.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening NY +7. Coming into this game as a favorite, the 76ers are 15-15-0. As an underdog, the Knicks are 15-16-2. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The 76ers have the ATS edge head to head going 5-1-0 vs the Knicks. The average point spread in these games was 76ers -10.2 and they won by an average of 16 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Philadelphia 76ers224.5115.8111.172%54%116.2 (6 Wins)
New York Knicks+7.0108.7109.428%46%100.2 (0 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

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Toronto Raptors vs Washington Wizards

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds clearly favor the Raptors. The projected score is Raptors 112 and Wizards 111, with Toronto being given a 51% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Raptors is -263 which translates to 72 percent (chance of winning). The Raptors have been dominating this matchup recently with a 8-4 record. In these games, the Raptors averaged 110 and the Wizards 106 ppg. The computer would set the spread at TOR -1. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening WAS +6.5. The Raptors have a record of 14-20-1 as a favorite. The Wizards have a record of 9-14-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Raptors have the ATS edge head to head going 8-4-0 vs the Wizards. The average point spread in these games was Raptors -4.4 and they won by an average of 3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Toronto Raptors227116.8112.570%51%109.5 (8 Wins)
Washington Wizards+6.5110.2112.030%49%106.5 (4 Wins)

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Milwaukee Bucks vs Atlanta Hawks

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Bucks to win the game despite being on the road. The projected score is Bucks 122 and Hawks 113, with Milwaukee winning 70% of the latest sims. The Bucks are -625 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 86 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. The Bucks are up in this matchup recently going 5-3. In these games, the Bucks averaged 111 and the Hawks 107 ppg. The computer would set the spread at MIL -9. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening ATL +10.5. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Bucks are 19-16-1. As an underdog, the Hawks are 19-21-0. While they may be 3-5 straight up in previous matchups, the Hawks have been better against the spread. The Hawks have the ATS edge head to head going 6-2-0 vs the Bucks. The average point spread in these games was Bucks -4.8 and they won by an average of 4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Milwaukee Bucks231120.8121.583%70%111.0 (5 Wins)
Atlanta Hawks+10.5110.2112.717%30%107.0 (3 Wins)

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Houston Rockets vs Orlando Magic

The odds favor the Rockets, and the sims are solidly on the Rockets as well. The projected score is Rockets 112 and Magic 101, with Houston being given a 76% chance of winning. The Rockets are -227 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 69 percent. The Rockets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-0 record. In these games, the Rockets averaged 114 and the Magic 100 ppg. The computer would set the spread at HOU -11. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening ORL +5.5. The Rockets have a record of 17-15-0 as a favorite. The Magic have a record of 16-15-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Rockets have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Magic. The average point spread in these games was Rockets -9.4 and they won by an average of 14 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Houston Rockets214109.8112.467%76%114.5 (4 Wins)
Orlando Magic+5.5104.2101.333%24%100.5 (0 Wins)

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Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks

The Warriors are favored to win based on simulations and the current odds despite being on the road. The projected score is Warriors 115 and Mavericks 109, with Golden State being given a 63% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Warriors is -244 which translates to 71 percent (chance of winning). The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Warriors going 5-1. In these games, the Warriors averaged 120 and the Mavericks 109 ppg. The computer would set the spread at GS -5.5. More of the action seems to be on the Warriors as the Vegas line has moved from +5.5 to 6. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Warriors are 16-21-0. As an underdog, the Mavericks are 17-9-0. They both covered the spread 3 times in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Warriors -9.9 and they won by an average of 11.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Golden State Warriors227.5116.8114.668%63%120.0 (5 Wins)
Dallas Mavericks+6.0110.7109.032%37%108.8 (1 Win)

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Portland Trail Blazers vs Denver Nuggets

The odds favor the Nuggets, and the sims are solidly on the Nuggets as well. The projected score is Nuggets 116 and Trail Blazers 105, and Denver is winning 75% of simulations. At -180 on the moneyline, the Nuggets implied probability to win is 64 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Head-to-head, the Nuggets are 5-4. In these games the Nuggets averaged 106 points per game and the Trail Blazers 105. The computer would set the spread at DEN -11. With more action on the Trail Blazers, oddsmakers have moved the line from +4.5 to +4. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Nuggets are 16-12-0. As an underdog, the Trail Blazers are 7-10-0. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Nuggets have the ATS edge head to head going 4-3-2 vs the Trail Blazers. The average point spread in these games was Trail Blazers -0.2 but the Nuggets won by an average of 0.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Portland Trail Blazers217106.5104.937%25%105.3 (4 Wins)
Denver Nuggets-4.0110.5115.863%75%105.8 (5 Wins)

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Cleveland Cavaliers vs LA Lakers

The Lakers are solidly favored to win based on simulations and the current odds. The projected score is Lakers 110 and Cavaliers 100, and Los Angeles is winning 74% of the sims. The Lakers are -480 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 83 percent. The moneyline has not moved significantly which indicates that the betting public agrees with the implied betting line probabilities. Head-to-head, the Cavaliers are 3-2. In these games, the Cavaliers averaged 117 and the Lakers 115 ppg. The computer would set the spread at LAL -10. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -9.5. The Lakers have a record of 13-15-0 as a favorite. The Cavaliers have a record of 18-21-0 as an underdog. While they may be 2-3 straight up in previous matchups, the Lakers have been better against the spread. The Lakers have the ATS edge head to head going 4-1-0 vs the Cavaliers. The average point spread in these games was Cavaliers -6 and they won by an average of 1.4 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Cleveland Cavaliers218.5104.599.920%26%116.6 (3 Wins)
LA Lakers-9.5114.0110.180%74%115.2 (2 Wins)

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Monday, January 14, 2019

Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets

The current simulations favor the Celtics, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Celtics 114 and Nets 108, with Boston winning 63% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Celtics going 9-0. In these games, the Celtics averaged 108 and the Nets 99 ppg. The projection based point spread is BOS -5.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Nets have a record of 7-4-0 as a favorite. The Celtics have a record of 26-16-0 as an underdog. The Nets have been better against the spread than straight up in previous matchups. The Nets are 5-4-0 against the spread vs the Celtics. The average point spread in these games was Celtics -7.1 and they won by an average of 9.1 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Boston Celtics----113.8--63%108.3 (9 Wins)
Brooklyn Nets----108.4--37%99.2 (0 Wins)

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Memphis Grizzlies vs Houston Rockets

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Rockets are favored. The projected score is Rockets 111 and Grizzlies 103, and Houston is winning 70% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Rockets have the recent head-to-head edge going 6-4. In these games the Rockets averaged 107 points per game and the Grizzlies 101. The projection based point spread is HOU -8.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rockets are 17-15-0. As an underdog, the Grizzlies are 9-16-0. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Rockets are 6-4-0 against the spread vs the Grizzlies. The Rockets were favored by an average of -4.8 points in these games and they won by an average of 6.3 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Memphis Grizzlies----102.6--30%100.6 (4 Wins)
Houston Rockets----110.9--70%106.9 (6 Wins)

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Charlotte Hornets vs San Antonio Spurs

The current simulations favor the Spurs, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Spurs 119 and Hornets 103, and San Antonio is winning 85% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Spurs have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-0 record. In these games the Spurs averaged 109 points per game and the Hornets 96. The computer would set the spread at SA -16.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Spurs are 13-9-0. As an underdog, the Hornets are 9-9-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Spurs have the ATS edge head to head going 3-1-0 vs the Hornets. The Spurs were favored by an average of -4.9 points in these games and they won by an average of 12.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Charlotte Hornets----102.6--15%96.5 (0 Wins)
San Antonio Spurs----119.0--85%108.8 (4 Wins)

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Detroit Pistons vs Utah Jazz

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Jazz are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Jazz 113 and Pistons 101, and Utah is winning 77% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Jazz have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-0 record. In these games the Jazz averaged 105 points per game and the Pistons 88. The projection based point spread is UTA -11.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Jazz are 16-15-0. As an underdog, the Pistons are 13-13-1. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Jazz have the ATS edge head to head going 5-0-0 vs the Pistons. The Jazz were favored by an average of -4.7 points in these games and they won by an average of 17.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Detroit Pistons----101.4--23%87.8 (0 Wins)
Utah Jazz----113.1--77%105.0 (5 Wins)

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Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Kings are favored. The projected score is Kings 114 and Trail Blazers 110, and Sacramento is winning 58% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Trail Blazers going 6-2. In these games, the Trail Blazers averaged 110 and the Kings 102 ppg. The computer would set the spread at SAC -3.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Kings are 8-2-0. As an underdog, the Trail Blazers are 7-10-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Trail Blazers are 4-3-1 against the spread vs the Kings. The average point spread in these games was Trail Blazers -5.9 and they won by an average of 7.2 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
Portland Trail Blazers----110.2--42%109.5 (6 Wins)
Sacramento Kings----113.6--58%102.2 (2 Wins)

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New Orleans Pelicans vs LA Clippers

The current simulations slightly favor the Pelicans, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Pelicans 116 and Clippers 115, with New Orleans winning 51% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Pelicans are up in this matchup recently going 4-2. In these games, the Pelicans averaged 115 and the Clippers 112 ppg. The computer would set the spread at NO -1. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Clippers have a record of 17-8-0 as a favorite. The Pelicans have a record of 7-10-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Pelicans have the ATS edge head to head going 4-2-0 vs the Clippers. The average point spread in these games was Pelicans -3.8 and they won by an average of 3.5 points.

EXPECTATIONSODDSVEGASPROJML%SIM%PAST H2H
New Orleans Pelicans----116.0--51%115.0 (4 Wins)
LA Clippers----115.5--49%111.5 (2 Wins)

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