NBA Playoff Power Rankings: Bucks and Warriors Likely Finals Opponents

1GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 47.3% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 64% of Neutral Court Simulations

They have an 83.7 percent chance of getting past the Trail Blazers. They have 47.3% chance of winning the championship.

Their 57 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.9 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home court was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 27-14 on the road and were expected to win 27.7. Their 73.2% home win percentage was worse than expected (81%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 58 wins per sim and are projected to finish first in the West.

2MILWAUKEE BUCKS 30.6% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 63% of Neutral Court Simulations

In their current series vs the Raptors, they have a 66.8% chance of advancing. They have 30.6% chance of winning the championship.

Their 60 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +3.2 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. Their 80.5% home win percentage was better than expected (76.1%). They won 65.9% on the road which was better than expected (62.3%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 60 wins and are projected to finish first in the East.

3TORONTO RAPTORS 16.8% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 60% of Neutral Court Simulations

They have a 33.2 percent chance of getting past the Bucks. They have 16.8% chance of winning the championship.

The regular season went better than expected. They won 58 games vs an expected win total of 55.2. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 26-15 on the road and were expected to win 24.4. They won 32 at home and were expected to win 30.8. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 58 wins per sim and are projected to finish second in the East.

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4PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS 5.3% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 53% of Neutral Court Simulations

In their current series vs the Warriors, they have a 16.3% chance of advancing. They have 5.3% chance of winning the championship.

The regular season went better than expected. They won 53 games vs an expected win total of 46.9. Their strength was at home. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 20.3. They won 32 at home and were expected to win 26.6. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 53 wins per sim and are projected to finish fourth in the West.

5ATLANTA HAWKS 29-53
Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Hawks play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 29 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +3.4 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations on the road. They went 12-29 on the road and were expected to win 9.6. They won 17 at home and were expected to win 16. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 29 wins per sim and are projected to finish fourth to last in the East.

6CHARLOTTE HORNETS 39-43
Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Hornets could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 40.4 wins. Their 39 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.9. Their 61% home win percentage was as expected (59.8%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 39 wins and are projected to finish ninth in the East.

7DALLAS MAVERICKS 33-49
Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Mavericks could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. The regular season went worse than expected. They won 33 games vs an expected win total of 34.9. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 9-32 on the road and were expected to win 13.3. They won 24 at home and were expected to win 21.6. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 33 wins and are projected to finish fourth to last in the West.

8CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 19-63
Win 60% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Cavaliers play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 19 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.8 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They went 6-35 on the road and were expected to win 7.8. Their 31.7% home win percentage was as expected (31.8%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 19 wins and are projected to finish second to last in the East.

9PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 51-31
Win 58% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 49.5 wins. Their 51 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. They won 48.8% on the road which was as expected (50.5%). They won 31 at home and were expected to win 28.8. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 51 wins per sim and are projected to finish third in the East. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the 76ers could take a step back next season.

10HOUSTON ROCKETS 53-29
Win 57% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went as expected. They won 53 games vs an expected win total of 52.1. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 23.2. Their 75.6% home win percentage was better than expected (70.6%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 53 wins per sim and are projected to finish third in the West. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Rockets could take a step back next season.

11OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 49-33
Win 53% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 49 games vs an expected win total of 51.2. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They won 53.7% on the road which was as expected (54.4%). They won 27 at home and were expected to win 29. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 49 wins per sim and are projected to finish sixth in the West. The Thunder may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

12BOSTON CELTICS 49-33
Win 53% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 49 games vs an expected win total of 52.1. They came up short at home and on the road. They won 51.2% on the road which was worse than expected (56.3%). They won 28 at home and were expected to win 29.1. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 49 wins and are projected to finish fourth in the East. The Celtics may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

13CHICAGO BULLS 22-60
Win 52% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Bulls are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 25 wins. Their 22 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 13-28 on the road and were expected to win 10.1. They won 9 at home and were expected to win 14.8. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 22 wins and are projected to finish third to last in the East.

14UTAH JAZZ 50-32
Win 52% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 50 games vs an expected win total of 53.7. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 23.4. They won 29 at home and were expected to win 30.4. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 50 wins and are projected to finish fifth in the West. The Jazz may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

15LOS ANGELES LAKERS 37-45
Win 52% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Lakers play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 37 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.9 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. Their 53.7% home win percentage was as expected (52.7%). They won 36.6% on the road which was much worse than expected (42.1%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 37 wins per sim and are projected to finish tenth in the West.

16DENVER NUGGETS 54-28
Win 49% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 50.6 wins. Their 54 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. They went 20-21 on the road and were expected to win 21.2. Their 82.9% home win percentage was much better than expected (71.7%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 54 wins per sim and are projected to finish second in the West. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Nuggets could take a step back next season.

17MIAMI HEAT 39-43
Win 48% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 40.6 wins. Their 39 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They won 48.8% on the road which was much better than expected (41.4%). They won 19 at home and were expected to win 23.6. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 39 wins and are projected to finish tenth in the East.

18MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 33-49
Win 48% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Grizzlies could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. Their 33 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -0.5 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went as expected. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 51.2% home win percentage was better than expected (48.6%). They won 29.3% on the road which was much worse than expected (33.1%). Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 33 wins per sim and are projected to finish third to last in the West.

19SAN ANTONIO SPURS 48-34
Win 45% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 48 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.5 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. Their strength was at home. They went 16-25 on the road and were expected to win 19.2. They won 32 at home and were expected to win 26.3. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 49 wins per sim and are projected to finish seventh in the West. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Spurs could take a step back next season.

20MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES 36-46
Win 44% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 36 games vs an expected win total of 38. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 11-30 on the road and were expected to win 16.1. They won 25 at home and were expected to win 22. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 36 wins per sim and are projected to finish eleventh in the West.

21INDIANA PACERS 48-34
Win 43% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 48 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.5 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 19-22 on the road and were expected to win 19.2. They won 29 at home and were expected to win 26.3. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 48 wins and are projected to finish fifth in the East. The Pacers may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

22NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 33-49
Win 41% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 37.4 wins. Their 33 actual wins was below expectation. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.7. They won 19 at home and were expected to win 21.7. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 33 wins and are projected to finish second to last in the West.

23ORLANDO MAGIC 42-40
Win 41% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 42 games vs an expected win total of 36.8. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 17-24 on the road and were expected to win 15. They won 25 at home and were expected to win 21.8. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 43 wins and are projected to finish sixth in the East. The Magic may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

24BROOKLYN NETS 42-40
Win 39% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 36.4 wins. Their 42 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on the road. Their 56.1% home win percentage was better than expected (52.6%). They won 46.3% on the road which was much better than expected (36.2%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 43 wins and are projected to finish seventh in the East. The Nets may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

25DETROIT PISTONS 41-41
Win 36% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went as expected. They won 41 games vs an expected win total of 40.6. They exceeded expectations at home. They won 36.6% on the road which was worse than expected (40.1%). They won 26 at home and were expected to win 24.2. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 41 wins and are projected to finish eighth in the East. The Pistons may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

26LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 48-34
Win 35% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 48 games vs an expected win total of 42.4. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 17.8. They won 26 at home and were expected to win 24.6. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 48 wins per sim and are projected to finish eighth in the West. The Clippers may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

27NEW YORK KNICKS 17-65
Win 32% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Knicks could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 22.3 wins. Their 17 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 8-33 on the road and were expected to win 9.1. Their 22% home win percentage was much worse than expected (32.3%). Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 17 wins and are projected to finish last in the East.

28SACRAMENTO KINGS 39-43
Win 32% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 35.6 wins. Their 39 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. They went 15-26 on the road and were expected to win 14.6. They won 24 at home and were expected to win 20.9. Our projected record for next season is similar. They are averaging 39 wins per sim and are projected to finish ninth in the West. The Kings may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

29WASHINGTON WIZARDS 32-50
Win 19% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 38.3 wins. Their 32 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 10-31 on the road and were expected to win 15.6. They won 22 at home and were expected to win 22.7. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 32 wins and are projected to finish eleventh in the East. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Wizards could take a step back next season.

30PHOENIX SUNS 19-63
Win 18% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 19 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -3.4 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They came up short at home and on the road. They won 17.1% on the road which was much worse than expected (20.9%). They won 12 at home and were expected to win 13.8. Expect a similar record next season. In our latest simulations they are averaging 19 wins and are projected to finish last in the West. The Suns may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.