NBA Playoff Power Rankings: Warriors Back Over 70 Percent to Win Championship

1GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 70.5% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

They have 70.5% chance of winning the championship.  Their chances of beating the Raptors are actually lower than their chances of beating the Bucks, but they are solid favorites vs both.

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 60.9 wins. Their 57 actual wins was below expectation. Home court was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They won 65.9% on the road which was as expected (67.5%). They won 30 at home and were expected to win 33.2.

2MILWAUKEE BUCKS 15.7% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 58% of Neutral Court Simulations

They have a 55.8 percent chance of getting past the Raptors. They have 15.7% chance of winning the championship.  They are given under a 30% chance of beating the Warriors despite having home court advantage.

The regular season went better than expected. They won 60 games vs an expected win total of 56.8. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They won 65.9% on the road which was better than expected (62.3%). They won 33 at home and were expected to win 31.2.

3TORONTO RAPTORS 13.7% Chance of Winning Championship
Win 58% of Neutral Court Simulations

In their current series vs the Bucks, they have a 44.2% chance of advancing. They have 13.7% chance of winning the championship.  They defend the three better than the Bucks which is why they have a better chance of beating Golden State.

Their 58 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +2.8 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. Their 78% home win percentage was better than expected (75.1%). They won 63.4% on the road which was better than expected (59.6%).

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4DENVER NUGGETS 54-28
Win 50% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 54 games vs an expected win total of 50.6. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 20-21 on the road and were expected to win 21.2. They won 34 at home and were expected to win 29.4. The Nuggets may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

5PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS 53-29
Win 49% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 46.9 wins. Their 53 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 20.3. Their 78% home win percentage was much better than expected (64.8%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Trail Blazers could take a step back next season.

6HOUSTON ROCKETS 53-29
Win 57% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 52.1 wins. Their 53 actual wins was above expectation. Their strength was at home. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 23.2. Their 75.6% home win percentage was better than expected (70.6%). The Rockets may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

7PHILADELPHIA 76ERS 51-31
Win 59% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 51 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +1.5 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 20-21 on the road and were expected to win 20.7. They won 31 at home and were expected to win 28.8. They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the 76ers could take a step back next season.

8UTAH JAZZ 50-32
Win 51% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 53.7 wins. Their 50 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short at home and on the road. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 23.4. Their 70.7% home win percentage was worse than expected (74.1%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Jazz could take a step back next season.

9OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 49-33
Win 55% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 49 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -2.2 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. Home court was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 22.3. They won 27 at home and were expected to win 29. The Thunder may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

10SAN ANTONIO SPURS 48-34
Win 46% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 45.5 wins. Their 48 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. Their 78% home win percentage was much better than expected (64%). They won 39% on the road which was much worse than expected (46.8%). The Spurs may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

11BOSTON CELTICS 49-33
Win 53% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 52.1 wins. Their 49 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short at home and on the road. Their 68.3% home win percentage was worse than expected (70.9%). They won 51.2% on the road which was worse than expected (56.3%). The Celtics may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

12LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS 48-34
Win 36% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went better than expected. They won 48 games vs an expected win total of 42.4. They exceeded expectations on both the road and at home. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 17.8. Their 63.4% home win percentage was better than expected (60%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Clippers could take a step back next season.

13INDIANA PACERS 48-34
Win 44% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 45.5 wins. Their 48 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. They won 46.3% on the road which was as expected (46.9%). They won 29 at home and were expected to win 26.3. The Pacers may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

14ORLANDO MAGIC 42-40
Win 41% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 36.8 wins. Their 42 actual wins was above expectation. They won more games than expected at home and on the road. Their 61% home win percentage was better than expected (53.3%). They won 41.5% on the road which was better than expected (36.6%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Magic could take a step back next season.

15BROOKLYN NETS 42-40
Win 39% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 42 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +5.6 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much better than expected. Their strength was in road games. They went 19-22 on the road and were expected to win 14.9. Their 56.1% home win percentage was better than expected (52.6%). The Nets may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

16DETROIT PISTONS 41-41
Win 36% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went as expected. They won 41 games vs an expected win total of 40.6. Their strength was at home. They went 15-26 on the road and were expected to win 16.5. They won 26 at home and were expected to win 24.2. The Pistons may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

17SACRAMENTO KINGS 39-43
Win 32% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 39 regular season wins exceeded expectations. It was +3.4 above what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went better than expected. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 15-26 on the road and were expected to win 14.6. Their 58.5% home win percentage was better than expected (51.1%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Kings could take a step back next season.

18MIAMI HEAT 39-43
Win 48% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 39 games vs an expected win total of 40.6. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They won 48.8% on the road which was much better than expected (41.4%). They won 19 at home and were expected to win 23.6.

19CHARLOTTE HORNETS 39-43
Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Hornets are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 40.4 wins. Their 39 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 14-27 on the road and were expected to win 15.9. Their 61% home win percentage was as expected (59.8%).

20LOS ANGELES LAKERS 37-45
Win 52% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Lakers play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 38.9 wins. Their 37 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. Their 53.7% home win percentage was as expected (52.7%). They won 36.6% on the road which was much worse than expected (42.1%).

21MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES 36-46
Win 44% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 38 wins. Their 36 actual wins was below expectation. They met expectations at home, it was on the road that they struggled. They won 26.8% on the road which was much worse than expected (39.2%). They won 25 at home and were expected to win 22.

22NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 33-49
Win 41% of Neutral Court Simulations

The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 33 games vs an expected win total of 37.4. They came up short at home and on the road. They won 34.1% on the road which was worse than expected (38.4%). They won 19 at home and were expected to win 21.7.

23MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 33-49
Win 48% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Grizzlies play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 33 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -0.5 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went as expected. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 12-29 on the road and were expected to win 13.6. They won 21 at home and were expected to win 19.9.

24DALLAS MAVERICKS 33-49
Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Mavericks are winning more in simulations than they did last season which indicates that they should improve next season. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 34.9 wins. Their 33 actual wins was below expectation. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 9-32 on the road and were expected to win 13.3. Their 58.5% home win percentage was better than expected (52.7%).

25WASHINGTON WIZARDS 32-50
Win 19% of Neutral Court Simulations

Their 32 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -6.3 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. Their 53.7% home win percentage was as expected (55.3%). They won 24.4% on the road which was much worse than expected (38.1%). They won more than their current neutral win simulation percentage warrants and the Wizards could take a step back next season.

26ATLANTA HAWKS 29-53
Win 68% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Hawks could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 25.6 wins. Their 29 actual wins was above expectation. They exceeded expectations on the road. Their 41.5% home win percentage was as expected (39.1%). They won 29.3% on the road which was much better than expected (23.4%).

27CHICAGO BULLS 22-60
Win 52% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Bulls play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. The regular season went much worse than expected. They won 22 games vs an expected win total of 25. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. Their 22% home win percentage was much worse than expected (36.2%). They won 31.7% on the road which was much better than expected (24.7%).

28PHOENIX SUNS 19-63
Win 18% of Neutral Court Simulations

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 22.4 wins. Their 19 actual wins was below expectation. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 7-34 on the road and were expected to win 8.6. Their 29.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (33.7%). The Suns may take a step back next season. They won a much higher percentage of games than their neutral win percentage would indicate.

29CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 19-63
Win 60% of Neutral Court Simulations

The Cavaliers could be poised to improve next season. Their neutral court simulation win percentage is significantly better than last season's win percentage. Their 19 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -1.8 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went worse than expected. They came up short on the road. They were OK at home. They went 6-35 on the road and were expected to win 7.8. Their 31.7% home win percentage was as expected (31.8%).

30NEW YORK KNICKS 17-65
Win 32% of Neutral Court Simulations

If the Knicks play up to their potential, they should improve on last season. Their 17 regular season wins did not meet expectations. It was -5.3 below what oddsmakers' money line projected. The season went much worse than expected. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 8-33 on the road and were expected to win 9.1. Their 22% home win percentage was much worse than expected (32.3%).